Charlie Cook Coming Up On Hardball

[DemocratSinceBirth]

He knows his stuff and will be telling us the state of the race...

[movonne]

1. Good!!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. He's A Straight Shooter (nt)

[helpisontheway]

3. He said there was a slight up-tick for Bush

last night in private polling. :-( Please don't let Bush get a boost after losing 3 debates.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. From Your Mouth To God's Ear(nt)

[Shopaholic]

6. Fuck. Was this in general or in key swing states?

On edit--I need a great big ole' bottle of Xanax for the next 18 days.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. I Think The Cheney Comment Hurt Us A Bit...

Nothing crucial...


We just move on...

[lancdem]

10. I agree

any damage would be short term.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. He Should Have Never Said It...

It cost us some precious momentum...


We all make mistakes...


And you can't put the toothpaste back in the tube...

[lancdem]

7. But I just got an e-mail from Mary Beth Cahill

saying post-debate polling now shows Kerry competitive in battleground states the pundits were giving to Bush. :shrug:

Edit: The race is obviously still too close to call, as it has been since the end of the first debate.

[lancdem]

11. At least it was slight

and maybe private polls have Kerry ahead to begin with, even if slightly.

[Awsi Dooger]

14. I'm sure Bush gained among women in the final debate, hopefully temporary

And white women are the key to this election. They gave Bush his post-convention bounce then the soft top of Bush's convention support returned to Kerry after the first two debates. As an NBC reporter emphasized yesterday, women are a disproportionately high percentage of the remaining undecideds. You can see that in virtually every state poll.

I host debate watching parties among apolotical types for a reason, even though it costs me a hundred+ bucks each time. The average Americans in my living room provide an instant reality check, often completely different than post-debate spin or what the media focuses on.

As I reported here Wednesday night, the eight women in my home spoke much more highly of Bush after debate three than any time during the debates. They loved his answer to the "strong women in your life' question, particularly the anecdote about meeting Laura at a barbeque. Virtually everyone in my house was miffed and uncomfortable when Kerry brought up the lesbian daughter, particularly women. Kerry's biggest supporter among the group immediately said, "I can't believe he said that."

I would say the women generally favor Kerry 6-2 among my group. They were 7-1 estimating Kerry won debate #1 and 6-2 in #2. In the final debate it was 5-3, in other words an edge to Bush from their default tendency. It's a ghastly possibility those two questions/responses could retain the presidency for Bush.

I expect other polls to swing to Bush this weekend. My debate watchers inevitably forecast the trend. The good news is its plenty early. But I suggest Kerry make further appearances on Oprah, etc. and have policy speeches and comercials designed to rescue the women's vote.

[Leilani]

5. Charlie Cook is excellent

& he just told us 10 states are too close to call.

This one is going to the wire folks.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Excellent And Fair

nt

[featherman]

12. I'm a Cook fan but that was pretty lame

Basically he has 10 battleground states.

Says that FL, IA, NM are "knife's edge" too close to call
CO, NV, OH, WI are very close but leaning GOP
PA, NH, MN are very close but tilted to DEM


Disagree with Charley today. I like Kerry to win 9 of these (not CO).
We shall see who was correct on 11/3.

p.s. Whoring without apology, Tweety sez Bush presented his attack on gays ("defense of marriage") "beautifully and forcefully" while Kerry "brought up Mary Cheney".