Ruy Teixeira explains disparity between Zogby and WaPo polls

[lancdem]

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajority.com

So: what does account for the differences between the two polls? Try this one on for size: Zogby has Kerry winning Democrats by just 64 points (79-15), while Bush wins Republicans by 83 points (89-6)--almost a 20 point gap in partisan support margins. In contrast, in the WP LV poll, Kerry wins Democrats by 73 points (85-12), while Bush wins Republicans by 80 points (90-10)--a much more modest 7 point gap in partisan support margins (commensurate, incidentally, with the gap we saw in 2000 between partisan support margins).

In short, the primary driver of the differences between the WP and Zogby tracking polls is the unusually low margin for Kerry among Democrats in the Zogby poll. I personally don't find that margin particularly plausible, since it is contradicted by the WP poll, by numerous other recent polls and by the 2000 exit poll results.

Lesson: don't let any particular tracking poll result get you down and, to the extent possible, look at a poll's internals to see what might be driving the result.

[madmax]

1. I wonder if this guy is related to me...

Teixeira was my maiden name. Not a common last name.

[Jeff in Cincinnati]

10. Then you can answer this question...

How in heaven's name do you pronounce Teixeira? I'm sure I've been mangling it terribly.

A phonetic spelling would be most appreciated!

[hellbound-liberal]

15. I believe it's pronounced "te-shera". Good luck on his first name!

I have no idea where to find phonetic symbols on this keyboard, but that's a short "e" at the beginning.

[madmax]

17. That's how we pronounce it in Portugese

My Mom always pronounced it in American as Tex-era but, people always mangled it to Tex-iera

[regnaD kciN]

20. The Texas Rangers (BOOOO!!!) have an infielder by that name...

...and the sportscasters always pronounce it "Te-sherra."

(Shouldn't that be the Te-shus Rangers, then? ;-) )

[Jeff in Cincinnati]

23. That was pretty much my preferred mangling

Thanks!

[madmax]

18. Hi

See post 17 :hi:

[JohnnyCougar]

2. I've always wondered if Zogby can be defrauded

Don't you sign up for his polls? What is to say a Republican can't sign up as a Democrat and say he's voting for Bush?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. The Results In Question Are From His Phone Poll (nt)

[JohnnyCougar]

6. I know

But, if I am correct, he doesn't call people at random like Gallup, et al. He calls a self-selected group of people identified by demographic information, and balances the demographic information to represent the voting population. If this is correct, his methods are open to fraud.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. Some Pollsters Use Random Dialing...

Any pollster who uses a self selected calling list is a charlatan...

I don't think Zogby uses such a list...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Some Pollsters Use Random Dialing...

Any pollster who uses a self selected calling list is a charlatan...

I don't think Zogby uses such a list...

[robbedvoter]

4. Maybe the "Slight weights" are the culprit

Zogby International conducted interviews of 1231 likely voters chosen at random nationwide. All CALLS were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from October 12 through October 14, 2004. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, gender, to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Zogby Had The Number Of Dems For Kerry Wrong...

I noticed that as soon as I saw the internals...

[Starlight]

16. "Slight weights were added..."

I was reading an article online yesterday (sorry, I forget where it was so I can't post a link right now) and I was surprised at how most of the pollsters do a bit of subjective adjusting of the numbers if they don't get the results they expect. :crazy:

[Leilani]

7. Why does Bush have more support from his party

than Kerry has from Dems?

Seems to me Dems are pretty motivated.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Cuz You Have Folks Who Haven't Voted D Since Jimmy Carter Calling

Themselves Democrats....


Even in the best of times Republicans have fewer defections...

[JohnnyCougar]

13. Seems to me these kind of Dems will be in the South...

where Bush wins anyways. The Dems for Kerry will be more pro-Kerry in the swing states, which are mostly in the North.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. You Are Correct...

I would assume the hard data would demonstrate that southern Dems are the most likely to vote Republican...


Our job would be easier if we could carry some southern states...

[liberalpress]

22. Don't rule out Tennessee

...regardless of the polls may show

[Awsi Dooger]

9. Great, maybe that's it

I have not seen a national poll all year suggesting anything close to just 79% Democrats for Kerry. It's laughable. Unless he polled disproportionately in Oklahoma or other DINO states.

For reference; in 2000 Gore managed 86% of Democratic support and Bush got 91% of Republicans. If anything, that gap should narrow by a point or so this year, not widen dramatically.

I'm still concerned Bush made gains among women Wednesday night. We should know by Monday.

[Harlan James]

19. Most Democrats Came Home In 2000

That and the outing of a Bush DWI cover-up are the 2 things most credited with Al Gore's come from behind popular vote victory in 2000.

I don't know if anybody is going to pull another heretofore unknown example of Shrub's degenerate behavior out of the hat at the last minute this time, but a return to the fold by those claiming in the Zogby polling to be Democrats would be nice.

Personally the thought of so-called Democrats claiming to want to vote for Bush sickens me.

[Guaranteed]

21. Eh.

:shrug: