My Analysis of this Election

[louis c]

Believe me, I'm the strongest Kerry supporter you could ever meet. However, I'm going to give you my most objective analysis of the state polling data that I can.

No one would like to see a Kerry landslide more than me. For the purpose of this exercise, I will give you my most Conservative estimate, as I see it. Feel free to disagree if you wish, but remember, this is what I truly believe is Kerry's worst case scenario, but a possibility none the less.

Here are the states that I think are solid Bush: Alab, Alas, Geo, Id, Ind, Ks, Kent, Louis, Miss, Mo, Mont, Neb, NC, ND, Ok, SC, SD, Tenn, Tx, Ut, Virg, Wym.

Here are the solid states for Kerry: Cal, Conn, Del, D.C., Hi, ILL, Me, Md, Mass, NJ, NY, Ore, RI, Vt, Wash.

Here are the swing states I think Bush will carry, and why: Arizona (Too much John McCain, and it seems already conceded by Kerry), Arkansas (Close, but the guns and patriotic jingoism is too much to overcome), Colorado (This is closer than I could have thought, but my instinct is that it is too Repuke for us to pull it out), Florida (It breaks my heart to place it here, and I hope that I am wrong. The hurricanes and the resulting publicity for the Bush brothers are a lot to overcome, as well as the other side's ability to cheat) Wisconsin (I hope I'm wrong here, but all the polls are leaning this way) West Virginia (I still can't believe a state that is so poor and dependent on labor unions can vote for Bush, but every poll I see gives it to Bush. I guess bull shit can overcome common sense)

Kerry's Swing States: Iowa (We will take this, the polling data here has been just great from all sources), Michigan (This state is very close to the first tier of safe Kerry, and we will win by more than 5%), Minnesota (this is closer than it ought to be, but in the end, I think it's ours), Nevada (this will be a surprise by a larger than expected margin. Many new voters, and anger at being lied to by Bush on Yucca Flats). New Hampshire (First hand knowledge, this state is being worked hard by Mass residents for Kerry, as well as Deaniacs from VT). New Mexico (we will win here by nearly 8 points), Pennsylvania (Teresa in Pittsburgh, and the Dems in Philadelphia, as well as a very popular and politically savvy Governor Ed Randell will pull this out by about 4 points)

So, if I'm correct, for those of you keeping score at home, here's the total. Bush 259 Electoral Votes to Kerry 259 Electoral Vote.

The only state not listed above is Ohio. In 2000, Gore lost Ohio by about 3% after pulling out with 3 weeks to go. Ohio has lost 1/4 of all the jobs lost in the entire country. Cleveland has more poverty than any major city in the United States. More folks here have lost health insurance than any other state in the nation. The average income has taken the second biggest hit behind only Michigan. Ohio has a strong, angry union base, and a huge, angry minority population. There is absolutely no reason to think we can't win here.

So, in the end, we'll be waiting until 2:00 AM to hear the call for Ohio. If I had to guess, my guess is that it's Kerry. That's how it looks to me today, that's just my opinion as of 10/15.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. You Nailed It...

Sometimes conventional wisdom is right....


FL, PN, and OH

The winner of two of those states is the next pres...

Dear God I promise to be your loyal servant if that man is Kerry...

[lancdem]

3. And Bush is giving up on PA

so Kerry needs either Ohio or Florida.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. I Live In Florida....

I like Kerry's chances in Ohio better...


But it plays to Kerry's advantage if FL is contested right up to election day....


The larger the battlefield the better...

[lancdem]

2. I agree with you mostly

I think Kerry will win Wisconsin. The most recent polls show the race there about tied.

[louis c]

6. Here's a second scenario

If Kerry does win Wisconsin, but loses Ohio the EV is 269 to 269.

That will be a disaster.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. The Country Would Be Even More Divided...

Especially if Chimpy loses the popular vote again...


Neil Boortz said the right to vote for pres isn't in the Constitution... He's technically right...


He failed to mention that in the original Constitution blacks, women, and the landless couldn't vote either...

And there wasn't direct election of senators...

The Electoral College belongs in the Smithstonian...

[sangh0]

4. A pretty good job IMO

As a worst case scenario, and cheating may make it one, it passes the smell test. And if things tip our way (ex. minimal cheating, no undue surprises, gaffes, etc) just a bit all over, it could be really big for us. Just one or two of those states moving to Kerry along with the Big Three ???'s and we've got a mandate

[fujiyama]

8. I'm not so sure

about NV and WI.

WI is a real toss up...Kerry was up there early on, then it started hovering around as a toss up. I wouldn't give it to Bush right away. It also seems to have tightened recently...and I saw a poll or two with Kerry up.

I'm less optimistic of NV. I hope Kerry pulls it off but I haven't seen a poll in that state with Kerry up in a long time...only the Zogby Interactive polls...

FL also probably tightened since the debates but your right that Bush has the advantage because of the recent hurricane photo ops and money pouring in.

Also I'm more worried about NM and IA. I think NM will be a lot closer but I hope that Richardson will help. Both states will be quite close I think.

Ultimately as you said it comes down to OH...but even if Kerry wins here it's not guaranteed he'll win the other upper midwest states.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Wisconsin...

How can a state that was only one out of ten that went for Dukakis go to Bush?


What has changed?

[fujiyama]

12. I heard

that there's been quite a few demographic shifts in all three upper midwest states that Dukakis won (and he won them all by comfortable margins). It's so weird that Gore won all those states by much smaller margins than Dukakis did. We can see that MN has seemingly moved to the right also - they now have a repuke gov, and Coleman won there as well (granted that was a peculiar situation).

I also think a lot of it has to do with a more effective GOTV among evangelicals. That's what Rove is betting on in all three states - rural evangelicals...These are the kinda people Bush is always talking to. He's basically written off moderate independants at this point.

I hope democrats offset this by turning out the votes in the urban areas - Madison, Des Moines, Minneapolis/St Paul, etc. I also heard that democrats were able to win IA by absentee ballots (Bush actually got more votes from those that actually voted that day).

[Awsi Dooger]

14. Hers's numerical verification of that demographic shift

The number at right is a relationship to the national popular vote average. Notice the persistent drift from extreme Democratic advantage in '88 to near 50/50. Nader was a partial reason in 2000.

Iowa:
'88: Dukakis (54.71 - 44.50) = + 17.93% Democrat
'92: Clinton (43.29 - 37.27) = + 0.46% Democrat
'96: Clinton (50.26 - 39.92) = + 1.81% Democrat
'00: Gore (48.54 - 48.22) = + 0.19% Republican


Minnesota:
'88: Dukakis (52.91 - 45.90) = + 14.73% Democrat
'92: Clinton (43.48 - 31.85) = + 6.07% Democrat
'96: Clinton (51.10 - 34.96) = + 7.61% Democrat
'00: Gore (47.91 - 45.50) = + 1.90% Democrat

Wisconsin:
'88: Dukakis (51.41 - 47.80) = + 11.33% Democrat
'92: Clinton (41.13 - 36.78) = + 1.21% Republican
'96: Clinton (48.81 - 38.48) = + 1.80% Democrat
'00: Gore (47.83 - 47.61) = + 0.29% Republican

[featherman]

10. I still like MN, IA, WI for Kerry. MI and IL are a lock

Glad you like NV... I do too...very much. This one may surprise some pundits. NH is another red state getting ready to flip.

PA is Kerry country.

There seems to be a little negativity about our chances in FL... I think Kerry is favored here and do not believe the same fraud can be pulled as 2000.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. I Live In Florida...

I'd be shocked if Kerry won...

Jeb won with 57% in 02...

[montana500]

18. Florida is Kerry country

"Jeb won with 57% in 02..."

That was also during the "fear" years,and Russert nailed his opponent in the debate.

[arewenotdemo]

13. Agree. Kerry will take Florida.

[Awsi Dooger]

15. I only quarrel with a few states

I'll get the negative out of the way first. In a 50/50 race, no way Oregon qualifies as safe Kerry. It has been slightly more Republican than the national average in two straight presidential elections, including '96 minus Nader. I'm pretty sure Oregon will go Kerry, but likely by no more than 3-4 points and that's hardly safe.

Oregon:
'88: Dukakis (51.28 - 46.61) = + 12.39% Democrat
'92: Clinton (42.48 - 32.53) = + 4.39% Democrat
'96: Clinton (47.15 - 39.06) = + 0.44% Republican
'00: Gore (46.96 - 46.52) = + 0.07% Republican

Otherwise, I'm not the cynic others are regarding Florida. That state has shown a consistent swing toward Democrats in presidential cycles. The demographics should favor us slightly more than in 2000, especially if South Florida Cubans get over that Elian Gonzalez mess to some extent.

I have more optimism regarding Florida than Ohio. We are depending on a partisan switch due to job loss and registration in Ohio. That is unsound reasoning, IMO. A short term prayer. I see no indication Ohio is not still 2-4 points more Republican than the nation in general. Remember, the Republicans did not think Ohio was in play during 2000, either. They were smashed on the ground. The inevitable emphasis by Rove & Co. in the rural areas this time will boost their Ohio numbers in relation to 2000.

I might switch Wisconsin and Nevada. More of a hunch than anything else, both defaulting to their natural tendencies of Wisconsin blue and Nevada red. I live in las Vegas and even in this supposed Dem stronghold I hear a distinct conservative theme every day. I've met maybe 5 white non-Hispanic males who support Kerry. Plus the Yucca Mountain issue is overplayed this year, especially compared to 2000 when Bush was extremely vulnerable here. As evidence, Bush did not dare set foot in southern Nevada in 2000. Yesterday he was welcome as a semi-hero in Las Vegas, with this city in fear of terrorism after many reports the big hotels have been, and may still be, a target.

[Mizmoon]

16. I'll tell you what scares me the most, and what makes me hopeful

1st the scary thing - British bookies are favoring Bush. ACK!

Now the good thing - so much new voter registration. That's always good for the challenger.

I have butterflies in my stomach. The truth is there are still 17 days until the election - who knows what could happen in that time. I have said many times that this election will be decided in the last week. Well, that week is fast approaching and we shall finally see ...

[Octafish]

17. Excellent analysis.

Perhaps there will be a few surprises and one of the 2000 red states will swing over to our side in 2004 you have not listed. And I believe Wisconsin will fall in blue, giving our horse 269. So, the race still boils down to Ohio -- and as DemocratSinceBirth added, Pennsylvania and Florida. Win two of three and it's a Hail to the Chief. And if -- oops, I mean WHEN -- they try to steal the election, they'll try to steal Florida again and add Ohio for insurance.