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Edited on Sat Oct-16-04 12:21 AM by JCMach1
CATEGORY DATE STATES TOT EV BUSH KERRY TIED
Must Win 11 Oct 5 96 (5) 11 (1) 58 (3) 27 (1)
Compensation 12 Oct 8 55 (8) 14 (2) 26 (4) 15 (2)
Republican Cherries 13 Oct 5 44 (5) 44 (5)
Democratic Plums 13 Oct 5 54 (5) 45 (4) 9 (1)
Red States 7 Oct 18 142 (18) 142 (18)
Blue States 8 10 147 (10) 147 (10
Total 51 538 (51) 212 (25) 275 (22)
51 (3)
... Also, TN, NC, and VA are within the MOE according the latest Zogby state polls.
Here is the complete email...
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Tracking polls:
We always list Bush first, then Kerry in these.
DATE ZOGBY RASMUSSEN WA POST ABC/WP
10 11-13 46-45 48.1-45.9 48-48 47-47
10 10-12 45.3-44.8 47.6-46.2 48-49
46-48
10 9-11 45.2-44.6 47.4-45.8 50-47 46-48
As in all polling, take 'em with a grain of salt whether good or bad,
they
are only a snapshot, albeit in this case averaged over three days,
based on
specific methodolgies used by the poolsters and they are not the final word!
Debate Polls:
From Emerging Democratic Majority Weblog, I thought this chart useful to counter any Republican spin about debate results. All numbers show
Kerry
first:
DEBATE I (30.9)
ABC 45-36
CBS 44-26 (Uncommitted Voters only)
CNN/Gallup 53-37
60-29 (Independent Voters)
Democracy Corps 45-32
ARG 51-41
DEBATE II (8.10)
ABC 44.41
CNN 47-45
Democracy Corps 45-37
DEBATE III (13.10)
ABC 42-41
CNN 52-39
54-34 (Independent voters)
CBS 39-25
29% said Kerry had clear position on issues BEFORE
debate
60% said Kerry had clear position on issue AFTER debate. Democracy Corps 41-36
In sum, Kerry won every poll after each debate. Enough said.
YouGov/Economis polling: We had not been following this poll (I have mentioned a couple of times), but they are the only one with MOE around
2%,
i.e. statistically more reliable:
DATE MOE BUSH KERRY NADER UND
10 11-12 2.1 45 47 1
10 4-5 2.1 46 47 1
9 27-29 2.0 46 46 2
9 20-22 2.1 45 46 1
Also interesting from the same poll:
How Things are going/How Bush is handling his job
Things Going? Job Handling?
DATE SAT DISSAT WELL NOT WELL
10 11-12 40 57 44 52
10 4-5 41 55 45 51
9 27-29 40 56 45 52
9 20-22 38 58 43 53
Interesting that these numbers are not good and have been that way for
some
time.
Senate Update. South Carolina. We mentioned yesterday that Inez
Tenenbaum
is still in the race. Late pooling I didn't get before going to press
with
DCR:
DATE POLLSTER MOE De Mint Tenenbaum
10 10-12 Survey USA 4.4 46 43
9 20-22 Survey USA 4.4 51 39
She's back in it, could be a vital hold for us.
Factors in this race. You know that more than the issues will play a
role
in the result on Nov. 2. Turnout is one of the most important and suppression of the turnout is a key Republican tactic. At www.MyDD.com
is
a list of states where Republicans currently have vote suppression campaigns going on. Worth a look. The states are: Colorado. Florida, Minnesota, Nevada, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and
Wisconsin.
Strange that there aren't any in Nebraska or Massachusetts.
More scandal. In addition to the efforts mentioned above, the
Democratic
Party of New Hampshire has gone to court and named Jim Tobin, New
England
GOP Campaign Chair, as the unindicted co-conspiritor in the Phone Bank scandal from the 2002 election (where Republicans used phone blocking technology to block 5-6 Dem phone lines on election day to prevent
people
from calling and asking for a ride to the polls.). The State court has agreed to allow the NHDP to continue to collect evidence and to depose witnesses. But, in steps the Ashcroft Justice Dept to block the action, claiming that it's criminal investigation will be harmed if Dem lawyers interview key witnesses and defendents before the election. The Justice Dept did not do this in the similar state court actions concerning
Enron,
WorldCom and Global Crossing. The NHDP is also suing the Republican
Party
of NH for not providing documents pursuant to a judge's order.
GOP tactic update. Kerry's comment, which was very kind, about Cheney's daughter is being used by the GOP as a wedge issue. Lynn Cheney has
called
Kerry "not a good man" for even mentioning her in the debate, even
though
Dick thanked Edwards for a similar comment in the VP debate. Poor Mary....
Now for our Friday look at our Blue States. Not too much to update for
the
same reasons that are occuring in the Red States.
STATE: California EV: 55
PRESIDENTIAL RACE
DATE POLLSTER MOE BUSH KERRY NADER UND.
10 11 Rasmussen 4.0 43 51
10 3 Rasmussen 4.0 42 53
10 3 Survey USA 3.7 43 51
10 2 Field Poll 4.3 40 49
SENATE
DATE POLLSTER MOE Jones Boxer UND
No new polling data.
9 24-10 3 Field Poll n/a 32 48
14
9 17-21 LA Times 3.0 34 52 11
HOUSE
We are not following any House races in California
GOVERNOR
There is no governor's race in California
COMMENT: This is our big prize. Boxer is in fine shape.
STATE: Delaware EV: 4
PRESIDENTIAL RACE
DATE POLLSTER MOE BUSH KERRY NADER UND.
No new polling data.
9 24 West Chester Univ. 3.9 37 45
9 14 ARG 4.0 41 50
SENATE
There is no Senate race in Delaward
HOUSE
We are not following the House race in Delaware
GOVERNOR
DATE POLLSTER MOE Lee Minner UND
No new polling data. Minner should have no difficulty.
COMMENT:
STATE: District of Columbia EV: 3
PRESIDENTIAL RACE
DATE POLLSTER MOE BUSH KERRY NADER UND.
No new polling data.
9 12 ARH 4.0 11 78
SENATE
DC does not have a Senator
HOUSE
DC does not have a member of the House
GOVERNOR
DC's governor is the Congress of the United States
COMMENT: Ours
STATE: Hawaii EV: 4
PRESIDENTIAL RACE
DATE POLLSTER MOE BUSH KERRY NADER UND.
No new polling data.
9 10 ARG 4.0 41 51
SENATE
DATE POLLSTER MOE Cavasso Inouye UND
Don't have details on the poll, but it shows Inouye at 80 and Cavasso at 19. No problem here.
HOUSE
We are not following any House races in Hawaii
GOVERNOR
There is no governor's race in Hawaii
COMMENT: In safe hands.
STATE: Illinois EV: 21
PRESIDENTIAL RACE
DATE POLLSTER MOE BUSH KERRY NADER UND.
10 11 Rasmussen 4.0 42 53
10 6 Survey USA 4.0 39 55
10 3 Research 2000 4.0 38 55
10 3 Rasmussen 4.5 41 52
SENATE
DATE POLLSTER MOE Keyes Obama UND
No new polling data.
10 3-4 Research 2000 4.0 24 69
9 17-20 Chicago Tribune 4.0 17 68
9 14-16 Research 2000 3.8 23 68
Obama is moving around the country for other Senate candidates. 15
states
so far. One paper believes that Obama could be majoritiy leader before
very
long with the "IOUs" he's collecting.
HOUSE IL - 8
DATE POLLSTER MOE Crane Bean UND
Chicago Tribune came out for Bean, says Crane has never done much for
his
district.
No recent polling data, Cook calls it for Crane, dailykos says leaning Crane.
GOVERNOR
There is no governor's race in Illinois
COMMENT: Kerry: 21 EVs. Bean is in better shape than expected.
STATE: Maryland EV: 10
PRESIDENTIAL RACE
DATE POLLSTER MOE BUSH KERRY NADER UND.
10 8 Rasmussen 5.0 42 51
10 7 Survey USA 4.1 41 56
10 5 Gonzales 3.5 42 52
9 24 Rasmussen 5.0 45 48
9 18 Survey USA 4.8 48 48
SENATE
DATE POLLSTER MOE Pipkin Mikulski UND
10 1-5 Gonzales Research 4.0 34 58
Mikulski clearly safe.
HOUSE
We are not following any House races in Maryland
GOVERNOR
There is no governor's race in Maryland
COMMENT: Kerry in good shape here: 10 EVs.
STATE: Massachusetts EV: 12
PRESIDENTIAL RACE
DATE POLLSTER MOE BUSH KERRY NADER UND.
10 6 Center for Pub Op 3.5 36 50
SENATE
There is no Senate race in Massachusetts
HOUSE
We are not following any House race in Massachusetts
GOVERNOR
There is no governor's race in Massachusetts
COMMENT: Red Sox are down - 0-2, probably the single greatest concern
in
the Commonwealth (I know it is the McQueen household.). Kerry: 12 EVs.
STATE: New York EV: 31
PRESIDENTIAL RACE
DATE POLLSTER MOE BUSH KERRY NADER UND.
10 11 Survey USA 4.1 35 58
9 25 Rasmussen 4.5 41 53
9 22 Siena Research 2.9 31 51
9 19 Survey USA 4.2 39 55
Despite Kerry's Red Sox comments, he should still be in good shape here.
SENATE
There is no Senate Race in New York
HOUSE
NY - 1
DATE POLLSTER MOE Manger Bishop UND
No new polling data.
No polling data, Cook Report says leaning Democratic, which would be a
hold
for us.
NY - 27
DATE POLLSTER MOE Naples Higgins UND
No new polling data.
9 15-16 Cooper&Secrest (D) 4.5 43 48
Too close to call, a real toss up.
GOVERNOR
There is no governor's race in New York
COMMENT: Solid Kerry country: 32 EVs.
STATE: Rhode Island EV: 4
PRESIDENTIAL RACE
DATE POLLSTER MOE BUSH KERRY NADER UND.
10 11 Survey USA 4.1 36 56
9 20 Survey USA 3.8 37 55
9 12 ARG 4.0 30 58
SENATE
There is no Senate race in Rhode Island.
HOUSE
We are not following any House races in Rhode Island.
GOVERNOR
There is no governor's race in Rhode Island.
COMMENT: Solid. Kerry: 4 EVs.
STATE: Vermont EV: 3
PRESIDENTIAL RACE
DATE POLLSTER MOE BUSH KERRY NADER UND.
10 12 Research 2000 5.0 40 53
9 11 ARG 4.0 40 50
SENATE
DATE POLLSTER MOE McMullen Leahy
UND
HOUSE
We are not following the House race in Vermont
GOVERNOR
DATE POLLSTER MOE Douglas Clavelle UND
10 12 Research 2000 5.0 51 37
After an initial good start, Clavelle's negatives have skyrocketed. Douglas looks to defend one for the GOP in Dean's home state.
COMMENT: Kerry: 3 EVs.
BOTTOM LINE. Blue states are in good hands, major leads everywehere.
For comparison purposes from last week:
Kerry 147, Bush 0 in the Blue States. So at the end of the fourth week before the election, We show Bush 294, Kerry 244. As we move through
the
remaining three weeks plus, this will be the baseline we work from.
We will update our master chart every day until Election Day with the
new
data for each category of state.
CATEGORY DATE STATES TOT EV BUSH KERRY TIED
Must Win 11 Oct 5 96 (5) 11 (1) 58 (3) 27 (1)
Compensation 12 Oct 8 55 (8) 14 (2) 26 (4) 15 (2)
Republican Cherries 13 Oct 5 44 (5) 44 (5)
Democratic Plums 13 Oct 5 54 (5) 45 (4) 9 (1)
Red States 14 Oct 18 142 (18) 142 (18)
Blue States 8 10 147 (10) 147 (10)
Total 51 538 (51) 212 (25) 275 (22)
51 (3)
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