CNN survey: Kerry picks up Ohio, New Hampshire

[Roland99]

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/15/electoral.map/index.html

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- After strong performances in three televised debates, Sen. John Kerry has overtaken President Bush in the jackpot swing states of Ohio and New Hampshire, according to a new CNN survey that nonetheless shows Bush clinging to a small lead in the Electoral College.

If the election were held today, Bush would win 277 electoral votes to Kerry's 261, according to a new CNN survey based on state polling, interviews with campaign aides and independent analysts. A candidate wins the election with 270 electoral votes, regardless of the popular vote.

Eighteen days before Election Day, the race remains extremely tight. If Kerry overtakes Bush in a state as small as Iowa, for example, the Electoral College would be tied at 269 votes each, a scenario that would throw the election into the House of Representatives. If he picks up Florida, Kerry would surge into the lead.

For now, at least, the trend appears to be moving Kerry's way.

Bush, who held a commanding edge coming out of his convention last month, is now clinging to statistically insignificant leads in the battleground states of Wisconsin, Colorado, Iowa and Florida, which hold a total of 53 electoral votes. (Even if he doesn't carry Colorado, Kerry's current electoral tally could gain four of that state's nine electoral votes. Voters there are considering a ballot initiative that would distribute their electoral votes based on the popular vote.)

[WindRavenX]

1. YES!! NH!!

I've been going up there EVERY DAMN WEEK and canvassing.
I CAN FEEL IT!! :bounce: :bounce:

[Cha]

6. Thank you, Thank you, Thank you!

:toast:

[budkin]

13. Ohio + Pennsylvania = President Kerry

Those two states will win it for him.

[SilasSoule]

16. Yep

Thats the formula.

[Carla in Ca]

15. Please rate this Yahoo story...we can't let it disappear.

<http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/latimests/2004>






Read this diary w/comments

<http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/10/15/93534/109>

Good job, Dems! I'm feeling good now!

[Syrinx]

2. if it went to the House...

Does that mean the current House, or the House after the electiion? I think it's the latter, but I'm not sure.

[quaoar]

3. We win Ohio

and it's over. Period.

[madmom]

7. I will be sooooo happy if Ohio goes Kerry

:bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce:

[kwolf68]

4. What

battleground states of Wisconsin, Colorado


The fact Colorado is a battleground state is great news.

[IIgnoreNobody]

5. If you believe this map, WI and FL are where the campaign should focus

[Cha]

9. God...there's a lot of

Stupidity out there! And why is New Mexico red?

[TheDonkey]

10. I'd skip FL and keep pressure on WI, IA, and OH

Flordia for some reason seems to have been in Bush's column for awhile. It might not be as easily winnable as IA, NM, or even CO imo

[ThoughtCriminal]

11. I doubt Bush will take NM and NV

nt

[Carla in Ca]

17. I agree..Kerry will get them, I just know it!

n/t

[NewYorkerfromMass]

14. Well, I don't believe it cuz we'e winning WI, IA, and NM

with Ohio it's game over.
They may indeed peel off the 1 Maine elector, but we may also win Nevada and also Colorado.

[sonicx]

18. CNN is out of their goddamn mind if they think IA, WI, and NM go to bush

[Lexingtonian]

21. what a joke

That's some serious bullshit they're buying from the RNC minions.

I guess you have to give them a little credit for concluding that Ohio is going Kerry's way. But to hand NM, NV, and IA to Bush seems wierdly ahead of what evidence there is- it would be more honest to admit that no one has convincing numbers.

But all the 'professionals' suck at prognostication this year. Just as they did in '92, '94, '96, '98, '00, and '02.

[edbermac]

8. Does ANYONE know the % of registered Dems/Reps for swing states?

I've been trying to find out if there is a website with this info. If CNN polls 1,000 people in a state that has tens of millions of voters, that tells me NOTHING!!!!

List the state, the most up-to-date number of registered voters for that state and the breakdown of voters by party affiliation. That seems to me to be a more accurate depiction of how things will play out...

If a state has 15 million registered Dems and 10 million registered Reps, I don't care if a poll puts Bush up by 4 or 5 points in that state, you KNOW he'll get stomped!

[nadinbrzezinski]

12. Assuming Demos go to polls in larger numbers

than Repukes and that they vote for Kerry.

This is why getting people to the polls is SO IMPORTANT

That said, NONE of the polls reflect the newly registered voters

[edbermac]

20. Oh, we WILL hit the polls hard on Nov 2nd...

Over 100 years ago we heard the famous slogan "Remember the Alamo!" Now it's "Remember Florida in 2000!" Believe me the anger that the Dems felt 4 years ago..."we wuz robbed!!" has only intensified...I can't see anyone but the most hardcore Bush/Republican supporter making a real effort to turn out...

[RamboLiberal]

19. Don't forget there's a good chance Colorado voters

are going to approve that ballot initiative tht will split the electoral votes.

And one Repug WV elector is claiming he won't vote for *.

This dang thing could be in the courts again.

I don't know if my heart and BP could stand it!