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Does everyone realize that it's all about turnout now?

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AP Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-16-04 01:50 AM
Original message
Does everyone realize that it's all about turnout now?
Edited on Sat Oct-16-04 01:51 AM by AP
Bush is narrowly leading among voters who always vote and are very interested in this year's race.

Kerry is killing Bush among people who rarely vote.

The more occassional voters who show up on election day, the bigger Kerry's MOV will be.

That means democrats have to get out the vote of the occassional voters.

Know how to do that? Precinct walking and phone banking. I am giving you the key to your salvation: phone banking and precinct walking. GO DO IT!
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fearnobush Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-16-04 01:54 AM
Response to Original message
1. Turn out Turn out Turn out. They have the guns, but we got the numbers.
We gotta them to vote.
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AP Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-16-04 02:04 AM
Response to Reply #1
4. Notice that no amount of phone banking will help Repubs--
Edited on Sat Oct-16-04 02:04 AM by AP
their voters are already motivated. They're going to vote. If Republicans start phone banking unlikelies, chances are 2 out of three that they're calling an independent (I presume they're not calling dems) who will vote Kerry.

The Republicans can do persuasion calls to moderates, but that's pretty time consuming.

(If you're and independent and get one of these calls, I encourage you to tie up their phone lines by talking for a LLLOONNNGGG time...)
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IHateFundies Donating Member (55 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-16-04 01:57 AM
Response to Original message
2. You are 100% correct, AP, it's all turnout now
Thanks :)
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AP Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-16-04 02:00 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. I just have to say that anyone who can't find it in himself to go phone..
...bank in the next two point five weeks is a major league asshole.

Let's go to work.
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MADem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-16-04 02:05 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. And if you know an oldster
..or two, or ten, who need a ride to the polls, do your duty!
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Aunt Anti-bush Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-16-04 03:04 AM
Response to Reply #3
7. Going door knocking this weekend
and phone banking all next week.

We're going to have a huge turnout and that's all that matters.
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sandnsea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-16-04 06:45 AM
Response to Reply #3
13. Or make these calls
If you can't get to a phone bank operation, make these calls. They give you 5 at a time, the people are waiting to hear from you. A long distance calling card is five bucks. Everybody can do this. This is OUR chance to work as hard for JK as he is for us.

http://calls.johnkerry.com/eblocks/index.mhtml
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AndyTiedye Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-16-04 02:08 AM
Response to Original message
6. and Election Monitoring
what good is turnout if they get turned away,
or if the votes don't get counted?

http://www.verifiedvoting.org
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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-16-04 03:34 AM
Response to Original message
8. I'm working GOTV on Nov. 2, but I don't agree it's all turnout
It's still a game of preference 1st through 9th, turnout a distant 10th. Kerry's next 17 days are much more vital than anything his legions can do. The Mary Cheney issue is a legit concern and must be nullified ASAP.

The GOP will show up, so will we. Late deciders on the final weekend will most likely decide this election. Obviously they will break for Kerry as the challenger. But where will the Kerry/Bush ratio be without undecideds? In what percentage will the undecideds favor Kerry?

GOTV provides potential bailout in a nailbiter state. But if I had to choose a phenomenal last two weeks for Kerry and a mediocre GOTV, or a mediocre final two weeks and phenomenal GOTV, it's no choice at all.
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AP Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-16-04 04:03 AM
Response to Reply #8
9. I like you so I'm not going to disagree with you...
very much. But I'm going to disagree with you a little. Gore had a totally shitty campaign from day 1 to day last. Kerry has had ten times the campaign Gore had. It was all about turnout for Gore. Jesse got them out in FL. The unions got them out in Michigan. They even got them out in CA. The polls that were wrong were wrong only because they didn't realize so many unlikely voters were coming out.

Regardless of what Kerry does (and I don't control Kerry) we have to get the vote out. And I can do something about GOTV.
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sandnsea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-16-04 06:43 AM
Response to Reply #8
12. You're totally wrong, totally
Dems vote, Dems win. Women vote, Dems win. Minorities vote, Dems win.

It is ALL about turnout and has been since this race started. Oregon has always had more Dems registered than Pubs, so why don't we win? We don't vote.

GOTV, please, that's where this fight will be won.
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T Town Jake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-16-04 04:07 AM
Response to Original message
10. Absolutely right...
...the size of the voter turnout will determine the amount by which Kerry wins: low turnout, he wins by a razor-thin margin in the "battleground" states; middling turnout, he wins convincingly; high voter turnout, and it's a Kerry landslide, and the Senate goes Democratic by at least a three seat majority.
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jerryster Donating Member (685 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-16-04 07:51 AM
Response to Reply #10
18. Slight disagreement
Low turnout usually and sadly means that the people we need for a win are the ones who didn't vote. Low turnout, we lose. Middling turnout, as you put it, I don't know. High turnout has always favored Dem candidates. Don't see why it would be any different this time around.
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AP Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-16-04 09:27 AM
Response to Reply #18
20. Low turnout we lose by 4.
Among those who always vote and are excited about the election -- which is the lowest possible turnout situation -- Bush leads by the most points. As you expand the horizon of voters, Kerry leads by more and more.
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daydreamer Donating Member (503 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-16-04 06:30 AM
Response to Original message
11. your are right.
One voter at a time. We need to do whatever we can to get out people to vote for Kerry. If you live next to a battle ground state, go join as volunteer do something to help out. I am going to take a week off work to give a little I can. I am not going to just sit around watching. It is toooooo important for the future of this country.
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Bread and Circus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-16-04 06:48 AM
Response to Original message
14. I agree.
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sbj405 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-16-04 06:56 AM
Response to Original message
15. Yep. That's why I'll be canvassing today and every weekend up til 11/2
And of course on election day.
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roseBudd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-16-04 07:25 AM
Response to Reply #15
17. I canvass everyday in SW Ohio during my lunchbreak downtown
First of all I am from SW Ohio. Though considered conservative and reliably GOP, the city of Cincinnati is 43% African American and city council is democratic and black. Cincinnati is not the only urban Ohio city with a sizeable African American population.

I have been street canvassing for 6 weeks now and I am convinced that the biggest pool of likely democratic voters who can swing this election AND are not reflected in the polls are low income African Americans. Thanks to hugely successful voter registration drives from ACT, MoveOn, Young Voter Alliance and ACORN, we have a huge pool of registered but unlikely voters. This pool is concentrated in urban areas, moves a lot, uses cell phones AND are not on the phone bankers, canvassers or pollsters lists.

They are however at bus stops, street corners, front porches, corner stores, city parks etc. They are the janitors where we work, they are the cashiers at the grocery store. They have jobs with few benefits, they have higher unemployment rates, and they are historically very loyal but unlikely democratic voters. If we increase turn out among African Americans in urban areas in the battleground states that have significant African American popultations we win. Period

I have been to Kerry Campaign headquarters, MoveOn PAC meeting and all I have to say is we have way too many white people talking to white people about this election. We CAN NOT afford to assume that the NAACP, the Urban Leauge and African American ministers have this election covered.

I am white and I have had no problem canvassing every African American I pass on the street as I go about my life. That means at the integrated grocery store I shop at, the downtown streets where I work and every hour lunch break for the past 6 weeks I have been canvassing African Americans and low income urban whites. I also took a week vacation to canvass in urban neighborhoods not adjacent to downtown

I walk down streets that many suburban whites would be afraid to travel, talking to everyone about this election. I want every single vote I can possibly get for John Kerry. I don't care if you stand on the corner selling crack, I want that vote. And not once have I felt unsafe or unwanted. The people I talk to are genuinely glad that I am doing what I am doing. And as Michael Moore pointed out in Bowling for Columbine the perception that black neighborhoods are simply unsafe for white people simply is not true, but a product of TV news.

What do I talk about when I street canvass low income people? Mostly the really f****d up Bush economy and the draft. I make extensive use of the TWO-FACED flyer, stapling or glueing it to utilty poles in high foot traffic areas. People love that graphic and lots of people ask me for a personal copy. It is a great conversation opener. People say, "I know that's right." I also use the memme, "Bush is a punk ass bitch." I get universal agreement on that one AND people love to hear me say that.

The other thing I do when I street canvass is reassure low income people that the dems have their back and we are going to protect the vote. I say, "we got lawyers, guns and money". I also tell them not to listen to the polls because they do not call cell phones. Hamilton County in SW Ohio has 71,000 new voter registrations and they are predominantly democratic.

But I need help. I need other people who live in areas with a sizeable African American population to do what I am doing. If you do this on your own you can say anything, including Bush is a punk ass bitch.

We should also be recruiting the older black men who stand on street corners to help with the GOTV efforts among the younger men. These men have been around, and remember the civil rights era. During the civil rights era white and black joined together for a goal. In 2004 it's time to get back to that. Leave your comfortable chair in your suburban neighborhood and come into the city to defeat GW Bush.
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RazzleCat Donating Member (336 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-16-04 07:22 AM
Response to Original message
16. need new shoes
I know and I have the blisters on my feet to prove it. Been out every chance I get going door to door.
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Junkdrawer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-16-04 07:52 AM
Response to Original message
19. Yep. And it's one of the the only antidotes to BBV at this late date...
Because most states will use a mixed-bag of equipment, a high turnout that breaks for Kerry will:

1.) Help dilute BBV rigging elsewhere

2.) Make any BBV rigging stick out like a sore thumb

This is why Rove is running an exclusively negative campaign: they HAVE to suppress turnout. It's also why I fear an election morning "incident".

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