CNN: Pollsters Can't Survey Cell Phone Only Users

[Harlan James]

Are younger voters flying under the pollsters' radar?

WASHINGTON (AP) -- A growing number of people rely solely on cell phones to make and take calls, putting them out of reach of polling organizations trying to get a fix on the American electorate.

Many cell-only users are young and mobile, a demographic that often doesn't vote. That makes survey researchers confident their polling, which excludes cell phone numbers, reflects the opinions of those likely to have an impact on Election Day. Still, with reports of unprecedented voter registration, many young voters could be flying under the pollsters' radar.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/15/polls.cellphones.ap/index.html

I do phone bank work for local Dems, and I can add something to this. Most people do not pick up their phones, and those that do are usually older. 75% of what I leave with the people I call are voice mail messages. I can't imagine Gallup or any other polling organization that uses phones for their polling are reaching any more voters than I am. Maybe they should change the name of their surveys to something along the lines of, "The Gallup Poll Of Older People Who Actually Pick Up The Phone."

[ogradda]

1. why cant they call cell phones anyway?

what's the problem?

[TaleWgnDg]

4. cell phone numbers are not published, that is, the numbers are

not available to anyone except to those who the cell phone owner wants to give the cell phone number to . . .

as opposed to landline telephone numbers which are published UNLESS the user requests and pays for an unpublished phone number . . .

thus the polling folks may be getting INACCURATE polling numbers since they cannot poll cell phone users.

think about the demographics of this . . . who uses cell phones only?

[Thegonagle]

12. Unsolicited calls to cell phones are illegal.

According to the CNN article, unpublished numbers are not a problem for pollsters because they generally use random digit dialing, with mobile number prefixes excluded.

The problem is that unsolicited calls to cell phones are not legal because the cell phone user pays for incoming calls as well as outgoing calls.

[TaleWgnDg]

13. thanks for your input; however, you are somewhat incorrect . . .

it is not "illegal" to place an unsolicited cell phone number . . . instead, this CNN article states that "Survey researchers are prohibited from using automated dialing equipment to call wireless numbers and can be fined for each infraction."

Thus, if it's not an automated-dialed-equipment telephone call placed to a wireless phone, then it's okay as I stated above in my earlier post in this thread.

However, without the pertintent federal law(s) and regulation(s) in front of me, I can analyze nothing other than CNN's further statement that these pollsters are trying to get around the "illegality" as to "loop-holes."

In addition, how is it possible to have a legal prohibition against unsolicited telephone calls without something such as a "do not call list?"

There was a U.S. Senate hearing on this very matter a few weeks back re whether to publish or not cell phone numbers, i.e., whether to promulgate new federal law.

[TaleWgnDg]

2. Well, I'll bet Bill O'Reilly doesn't like THAT one bit!

After all, it closes his circle of people who'll call him for phone sex!

. . . .

P.S. If you hold up this .gif to the light, you can *see* the rest of the photo (ask O'Reilly, he knows). Maybe O'Reilly would be in favor of the FCC mandating cell phone numbers be published like landline opt-out-only? LOL


edited to add: pardon my weak humor . . . and I want to add, too, welcome to DU, Harlan James!

[nonconformist]

3. Also, most people have caller ID these days

Or it seems that way anyway. I screen my calls and only pick up numbers I know or local numbers. If it's Unavailable, Private or even just from another state where I don't know anyone, I let the machine get it. Even before I had caller ID I would screen my calls with the machine more often than not.

I haven't been polled, but then again if I had been called I might not have known it. For those who have been polled by a major outlet (Gallup, etc) what does it say on your caller ID? And if you missed the call, do they happen to leave a recorded message or anything?

re: cell phones
My sister is 19 and has a cell and no land line. None of her friends do either, it's definitely the Cellphone Generation. Her circle of friends range in age from 19-25 and they're all voting for Kerry. As a rule, they're generally apathetic but fear of the draft really made them start thinking and I know several have went to see Fahrenheit 9/11. I think even for the apolitical young adults, the GOTV effort has made voting a very "cool" thing to do this year and I suspect (hope?) there will be a record turn-out by the 18-24 crowd.

[mama]

5. I got polled two weeks ago

It was a computer asking if I would vote for * or Kerry and if I would change my mind if Nader were in the race. The caller-id said either "out of area" or "private", I remember because I don't usually pick up those calls. Since then I have answered whenever possible, just in case it's a poll.

[murielm99]

8. I screen all my calls.

If something comes up on caller I.D. that I don't recognize, forget it.

While I do use my cell phone for other things, I use my cell phone to talk to my kids mostly. The girls bought in network plans, so it is cheaper.

All three of my kids have access to land lines in their apartments, but are seldom home, or seldom use them. I think they have them mostly for Internet access.

My oldest daughter works in a second tier orchestra, with all young musicians. They are all under thirty. She says every last one of them is an angry liberal. They use cell phones, and have never been polled.

I kept getting an 800 number on my caller I.D. every day this week. It was in the morning, when I was not home. Friday, I was home, so I answered it. I thought it might be a pollster. It was the Nation magazine, asking me if I wanted to be an associate.

[regnaD kciN]

6. Not just cell phones...

Pollsters can only call you on your land line if it isn't busy. Those with dial-up accounts who are on-line large portions of the day will be unreachable during those times.

In our household, it isn't unusual for the computer and its dial-up connection to be on from the time one of us gets home until early morning (right now, it's 4:06 A.M. here). Being out of touch isn't a problem, because we always have at least one cell phone on during those times, and our families and friends know that, if the land-line is busy, they can always reach us by cell. However, that means we're just as invisible to poll-takers as any cell-only users.

[saracat]

7. I was wondering when the media would wise up to this!

[StlMo]

9. Another Issue

It's a smaller factor, but if a poll uses random selection of all the numbers in the phone book:
Some people have multiple phone lines and are therefore more likely to be polled.
People who can afford more than one line probably have higher average incomes than people with single lines do.
That would skew polls even more.

[Eurobabe]

10. Bottom line, don't believe the polls.

I have thought they were skewed for a LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONG time.

Kerry's gonna win.

[Cats Against Frist]

11. Low-income people and minorities

From working in social service, it is not only youth that rely on cellular-only phone service, but low-income people and minorities, as well. Almost every family that I worked with had a cell phone but no land line.

[joshcryer]

14. I'm a cell phone only user. And I'm sure millions of newly...

...registering voters are also. :)

[liberal N proud]

15. Is this an admission by the media whores that the polls are skewed?

Could it be that this is a preemptive statement in the event it is a landslide?
Well there were all these voters out there that we couldn't poll so we really did think this would happen.

[batchdem04]

16. Another missed voting block...

...the overseas vote. I think, they would go for Kerry by 10% points or so.