Rasmussen tracking tightens up again Kerry 46% Bush 48%

[unfrigginreal]

Presidential Tracking Poll: Bush-Kerry

Saturday October 16, 2004--On Saturday morning, the latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 48% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 46%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern. Two-thirds of the interviews for today's Tracking Poll were conducted following Wednesday night's Presidential Debate.

When the year began, it was widely expected that the President would do better among Investors than non-Investors. However, as of today, the Investor Class is evenly divided. Among those who own at least $5,000 worth of stocks, bonds, and mutual funds, 48% will vote for the President and 47% for Senator Kerry.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

[WI_DEM]

1. Good, Kerry closed the gap by more than a point since

yesterday.

[lablue]

2. kerry polled slightly ahead of bush last night

I don't want to be too much of a nerd about this, but if you read mydd, you'll interpret that kerry polled slightly ahead of bush last night (a 1.8 percent lead on saturday would be a tie, bush has a 1.5 percent lead)

[lablue]

3. here's the relevant mydd post

I have seen some worried faces out there concerning today's Zogby tracking poll showing Bush leading 48-44 (up from 46-45 yesterday), especially when combined with today's Rasmussen showing Bush ahead 49.0-45.5 (up from 48.5-45.9 yesterday). However, I am here to tell you not to worry, and that appearances can be deceiving.

While I have yet to crack the day-to-day samples of the Zogby tracking poll, I think I have come pretty close to the Rasmussen daily samples, tahnks significantly to the work of diarists Winger and globecanvas. Here are, to the bet of my ability, the single day Rasmussen samples since the beginning of October:

Bush Kerry
10/1 49.7 45.1
10/2 48.0 47.2
10/3 48.0 46.1
10/4 48.0 47.5
10/5 45.7 47.1
10/6 49.8 45.5
10/7 49.8 45.7
10/8 49.2 46.7
10/9 49.7 44.2
10/10 48.2 45.4
10/11 44.1 48.0
10/12 50.5 45.2
10/13 50.9 44.5
10/14 45.6 46.8

Even though Bush gained today, it was not because he had a strong single day sample yesterday. In fact, the only reason Bush gained today was because Kerry's strongest single day sample in five weeks, Monday's 48.0-44.1, dropped out of the three-day average. Kerry actually has an early lead in Sunday's three-day average, 15.6-15.2. Kerry is slightly behind going into tomorrow's three-day average, 32.2-30.4

. If Bush gains again tomorrow, we should be a little worried, because that would be his best day since September 20th. However, it will be very difficult for Bush to gain tomorrow, since he leads Kerry by around 5.3 points in the sample that is going to be removed. If today's sample is an exact tie, Kerry will be behind by about 1.8%.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

4. ... there madness lies ....

[saracat]

5. This is the same old argument.

Why isn't Kerry pulling ahead in any of these polls? It seems like there was little to no debate bounce and I don't see how that could be.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Because The Republican Spinning Of The Cheney Remark Stunted Our Momentum

nt

[unfrigginreal]

6. I think that Winger made a post after this that says they can't crack the

day-to-day polling because Rasmussen weights the poll.