Zogby Must Have Got The Rove Memo

[DemocratSinceBirth]

www.reuters.com


Like Rove said on FOX'S Gretta Van Susteren Show watch the Zogby Poll....

[Champion Jack]

1. More likely, Rove threatened his family

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Who Knows?

[Bad Thoughts]

3. Don't Worry: the Tin Man is winning!

Zogby asks voters whether they would prefer the Tin Man over the Scarecrow (intelleigent over heart--I know, Kerry has heart too). On NPR this morning Zogby was quoted by an analyst, saying that the Tin Man is up by 10 points. In 2000, both tied.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. I Think Bush

has the worst characteristics of the Tin Man, the Cowardly Lion, and the Scarecrow and none of their attributes....

[Bad Thoughts]

10. I agree n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. When I Was A Kid

there was a wrestler called Yellow Belly Robely...

Floridians will remember him...

He reminds me of Bush...


He would always partner with good wrestlers who would always bail him out....

[napi21]

5. I actually think you're going to see swings in polls up to 11/2 PM.

I still think the pollsters and the media have a vested interest in keeping this election extremely uncertain. What is better to keep everyone interested and watching, listening, and talking?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Here's My Take...

I don't think Zogby is evil but I do think more than other pollsters he's inclined to storylines

-Rick Lazio will beat the invincible Hillary Clinton

-Cali's in play... His poll the weekend of Election 00 had Bush down by only one point...

-Dean is closing the gap in New Hampshire... His polling showed Dean and Kerry virtually tied the weekend before the primary....

There are other examples....


Does Zogby cook his polls to advance his storylines?

Who knows?

[Fluffdaddy]

6. STOP IT: Every time a Poll go against us we can't..........

Sorry

[Mizmoon]

7. AMEN

I have said many times in the past that this election will be decided in the last week. The very last week.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. I Am Only Repeating What Was Reported On Democratic Underground

That Karl Rove specifically cited the Zogby Poll as the poll to watch...

Aren't you suspicious?

[bitchkitty]

12. I'm suspicious!

I think they're trying to make it look close enough to steal. I'm seriously worried about my state, Oregon. We have mail in ballots, and I'm scared.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. Oregon Will Be Fine IMHO....

The race has to be less than .05 difference for monkey business to occur...

[bitchkitty]

17. Hope you're right. n/t

[Fluffdaddy]

11. SORRY about my mistake filled Post. It will not let me edit it:

What's up with that DU ?

[regnaD kciN]

18. I agree!

Crying "conspiracy!" every time we get a poll result we don't like is ridiculous and makes us look irrational.

It's quite likely that Zogby is reporting the results he's getting.

When polls have an average margin of error of between +- 2.9 and +- 3.5, which really translates to gaps of 5.8 to 7, you're likely going to see a lot of two- to four-percent swings in the race that really mean little.

We need to keep our eye on the big picture -- which, at this moment, is getting to 270 EV, which means winning states. At this time, there are a lot of small-EV states in the south and midwest where Bush is winning by a mile, and a smaller number of northeast and western states where the same can be said of Kerry. The huge gaps in some of the pro-Bush states are the reason why it is even possible that this year could be a reverse of 2000, with Bush winning the popular vote and still losing the electoral vote.

Right now, most states are more or less sewn-up, and neither candidate has the requisite 270 EV with those states alone. As others have noticed, at this point, the race comes down to a handful of states where the race is extremely close or tied. And, barring a major gaffe or new "home-run" campaign theme (Kerry's "Bush is to blame for the flu vaccine shortage" ad?) over the next two weeks, what the whole race will come down to is voter turnout for each side in those states, no matter whether the national polls show, say, a four-point lead for Bush or a three-point lead for Kerry.

The bad news, on that theme, is the electoral-vote.com result that shows, if the race were held today and all the states voted as indicated, it would come down to (currently exactly-tied) Florida. Whoeven won Florida would win the election...again... :scared:

[iceman_419]

13. He is citing a poll that has Bush leading

That is not a conspiracy. People think Zogby is credable so that is why Rove talked about it. I don't think there is any conspiracy theory between the two. We just need to get out and vote and make sure other dems do too.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. Why Would Rove Cite It If He Thought It Would Be Bad For Bush?

Think about it...


Do you think he would tell people to follow it if it showed Bush losing...

I am not going to be that fat tub of goo's bitch ....

[Lexingtonian]

19. why care???

Bush's 48% is an upper limit at best.

I've tried to make sense of the mess of polls out in the past few days. There is in fact a pattern once you look at their modelling and the limits to who they reach by their polling method.

The actual numbers are pretty clear- each side has about 52 million votes pretty solid, reflecting 2000, and that gives each side a baseline of 45%. Bush's hold on about 3 million of them is problematic. Kerry has about 3-4 million newly registered voters mostly missing from most polling due to Democratic efforts primarily taking place in September, Bush about 1 million with the same. (All the other, earlier, registrations make up for the ~5 million voters who have died since November 2000.) Nader and other Third Party folks are locked in at 2%/ 2 million votes and moving nowhere nationally, even if they affect individual states. Total turnout is probably ~115 million.

About 4 million voters are causing all kinds of trouble for the pollsters. Depending on the sample and how they phrase things, these people waver between Undecided and claiming to support Bush. That's why Bush's numbers fluff uncontrollably between 46% and 49%, mostly, and his 3 million leery supporters in what ought to be his base make him fall as low as 42-43% in bad moments. But strong Kerry showings get them to behave like true Undecideds, splitting for the challenger. For the time being they're probably blipping for Bush now that B/C has fired up the ol' conservative God/guns/gays/taxes line fully- but none of it works, and the blip will be gone in a matter of days. (They didn't do themselves a real favor with the Mary Cheney faux outrage bit.)

The Undecideds that have remained Undecideds throughout are also about 4 million. Frank Luntz says they're half a step away from going Kerry's way and Bush has no real chance with them anymore.

So the next two weeks are still going to look chaotic and the pollsters are not going to present us with any clear picture. But doing the arithmetic says that it all adds up for Kerry unless Bush comes up with something remarkable. Kerry 58-59 million, Bush 54-55 million, Nader/3rds 2 million. You don't lose the Electoral College with a 4-5% margin.

[TruthIsAll]

20. You don't lose the EC with a 1% margin, unless you're Bush this year.

Because Bush will win the Red States big and still lose the Battleground states. But I don't suspect he will win a majority.

There is no way in hell that Kerry loses if he just ties Bush in the popular vote. I have run 25,000 Monte Carlo simulation election trials each day for the past three months which prove it. That's over 1 million election simulations.

If Kerry just stays even with Bush, he wins. But he won't stay even on Nov. 2. If it's tied now, as the average of the polls indicate, Kerry will still win the vast bulk of the undecideds. He'll end up with, as you say, 52% - or better, depending on turnout. That leaves Bush with 46%-47% and 1% to other.

A 5 point spread in the popular vote means Kerry will win at least 350 EV's.

Check out the EV and popular vote sensitivity to the undecided voter allocation here:

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[Teaser]

21. Zogby is fine.

Jesus Christ people, I knew Bush's numbers would go up to. All you have to do is reverse engineer Zogby's poll with some reasonable assumptions and you can tell what's going to happen the next day, give or take a few decimals.

[Spiffarino]

22. None of the pollsters - Zogby included -

...can count all the people who have registered in the last several months. If all the votes are counted it's Kerry in a landslide.

Look at who Zogby is polling. The "likely voter" model is useless in this election. Likely voters are the people who have an axe to grind every election year. This year, we have a very special axe to grind and new Democrats have been registering in droves to grind it.