These Zogby polls are suspicious.

[southern democrat]

Remember back when the draft Clark movement was in full swing. They hired Zogby to do a poll and it's results had Clark beating Bush and all the other Democrats. Well we all know how that turned out. I think Zogby is a hired gun who will give the boss the results they want.

[unfrigginreal]

1. Baloney

Zogby has consistently been the most reliable pollster. That doesn't mean that he won't get a bad sample from time to time.

[southern democrat]

6. Clark was ahead of Bush and Kerry

Kerry routed Clark. Clark only tied 1 state. Clark never had the support Zogby alleged. I remember well I was a Clark supporter and after it all started to sort out I was in disbelief.

[LoZoccolo]

20. Dean was ahead of Kerry for weeks etcetera...

Things change.

[saracat]

2. We can't dismiss all polls whose results we don't like.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. No-Just The Ones Karl Rove Tells Us To Look At (nt)

[Longhorn]

7. Just curious. Has anyone ever provided a link to this Karl Rove

statement? I've only read here that he said it but I don't know the context or circumstances of the statement. If you know, thanks!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. Somebody Here Provided A Link...

I don't believe everything I read here but I will AWLAYS give a fellow DUer the benefit of a doubt...

[theangrydem]

4. Zogby is a Democrat

Zogby is a straight guy, a Democrat in fact.

[kostya]

8. Provide link

that shows Zogby is a Democrat, please. I believe he is GOP, but he is very much against the way Bush prosecuted the war in Iraq. His numbers are usually good, though.

[incapsulated]

I will find it

Because I remember he said it.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. I Don't Trust Him...

Zell Miller says he's a Democrat too....

[incapsulated]

23. It's funny

I'm finding all these people who hate Zogby who claim he is a registared Dem, but I can't find him saying it, even though I remember him saying so.

His brother (the head of the Arab American Institute) is a BIG TIME Democrat, and worked as an aide to Gore:

Arab American in Chief: - And a big Democrat, too

http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1282/is_5_54/ai_83591400

[kevin881]

21. he ran for congress as a dem, i believe.

and he is trustworthy.
his polls showing bush leading are not good news.

[incapsulated]

5. Oh, fer chrissakes

That was before anyone was even paying attention to the primaries. Clark was a hypothetical and the real primary race hadn't started yet. It didn't show Clark beating everyone, just competitive with Bush.

Plus, I believe that poll included both Democrats and Republicans, and only Democrats vote in the primaries.

I find this sudden "suspicion" of the former Polling God on DU because of a slight shift in numbers to be.... ironic, to say the least.

[Bandit]

12. What throws doubt on it is Rove saying to watch for this poll

If I am not mistaken Rove made that quote before the poll came out and that immediately causes suspicion. If Rove hadn't suggested we watch for this particular poll I don't think there would be any questioning of Zogby's motives.

[Jasper 91]

15. My thoughts exactly .

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. Another DUer

gave a plausible scenario of what happened...

Zogby gave Rove his polling for that day before he released it to the public...

[southern democrat]

17. Why?

[incapsulated]

25. Maybe because...

He knew that Zogby's poll was going to make his guy look good? You don't think that someone like Rove doesn't get the inside scoop on a upcoming poll, especially one that previously favored Kerry, and want the world to know it?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Is He The Pollster

who had Rick Lazio beating Hillary Clinton?


who had Bush one point behind Al Gore in Cali the weekend before Election 00?


who had Dean closing the gap in New Hampshire against Kerry in the weekend before the New Hampshire primary?

who called Al Gore Al Bore on FOX'S Beltway Boys show to ingratiate himself with right wing hack Fred Barnes and faux liberal Mort Kondracke?

who was Rush's favorite pollster during the Lewinsky brouhaha because his polls "demonstrated" Clinton wasn't as popular as the majority of polls at the time suggested?

who Rove told us to follow his polls after the third debate...


These questions deserve answers...


I want the truth....

[still_one]

10. There is nothing wrong with Zogby's poll

but even Zogby is not counting the newly registered voters or the 18-24 year old with cell phones

Remember that many older Americans are not being counted also

The demographics have changed considerably

Zogby still has 6% undecided which is quite large this late in the game

I am feeling more and more confident every day that John Kerry WILL be the next President of the United States

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. This Cell Phone Issue Is Problematic But Not Determinative...

They have polling information from 18-24 year olds with landlines....


If it is your contention that 18-24 year olds with cell phones have markedly different presidential preferences than those with landlines or those with landlines and and cellphones I would like to see some data that bolsters that contention...

[Lydia Leftcoast]

18. As a former participant in Zogby's online polls

I was able to see the cumulative results after finishing my own questionnaire.

What struck me was that he always over-sampled Republicans. I must have done four or five of those polls, and the result was always the same, more Republicans than Democrats.

[Booster]

19. Something's been nagging at me since the last debate.

This whole election is suspicious. How can a president have 4 of the absolute worst years in our history, not be very bright to begin with, lose his first election by the majority vote, lose all 3 debates, spend an enormous surplus and increase the deficit by as much as he has, and be leading in the current polls. I'm thinking we've all been had, maybe by both parties, by the Skull & Bones Club.

[JPace]

22. It is astounding isn't it?

how furious george could be so damaging for
the country and yet get so much support.
It's like people are thinking, no jobs? o.k....
disastrous war? o.k.....polluted environment? o.k.....
high gas prices? o.k.....no flu shots? o.k..... and on
and on and on.

Searching for an answer can lead to paranoid answers
because nothing is making any sense anymore.

[Booster]

26. I think it's more than astounding, it's insane. If anyone of

our recent presidents had had even one bad year as bad as Bush has had, he would certainly not be leading in the polls. I should have clarified my post by not saying both "parties", but it does bother me that the Dems in Washington just roll over for this idiot, he doesn't even include them in most if not all of his meeting and everybody seems to think that's ok. If a Dem president had done that the entire country, including us, would be aghast. I just don't have a good feeling right now about our political system at all. think I'm just bummed out today after turning on the tv and hearing Bush is leading in the polls. WTF!!!!

[Enraged_Ape]

27. Well, now, there you go making perfect sense again.

I guess you didn't get the memo about how NOTHING makes sense anymore.

This poll is horseshit, like ALL polls--yes, even the ones that show Kerry ahead by some ridiculously small margin. ALL political polls are marketing tools, every single damn one of them. Poll reporting has but one single purpose: to push the agenda of the right-wing megacorporate media that funds the pollsters and that maintains a constant vigil for its benefactors. We, the teeming millions, hear only the results that what we are meant to hear.

I don't know why all that seems so hard for people to believe, when the evidence (as you mention in your post) is so obviously all around us. Bush sucks in plain sight. The polls deny that.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. If Polls Are Bullshit Why Have They Nailed* Every Election Since 1952?

www.ncpp.org/1936-2000.htm



Also, the polls conducted by the party show a tight race....


Stanley Greenberg's Democracy Corps poll shows a tight race...


Is he blowing smoke up our ass too?



*nailed=within margin of error

[Booster]

31. So I'm thinking we're going about this all wrong. We should

all vote in this election, for Kerry of course, but put our real effort into taking both houses in Washington so if Bush does win, we can at least keep him in check, if that's possible. All my life I was told we should never have either party in total control in Wash; that having a Repug president, but Dems in control of Congress/Senate is the check and balance needed. I just get this feeling that Bush will win, either because Americans are really, really just plain stupid or he steals it, so the Dems need to get control in the others before we lose this great country of ours. Oh, now I feel like I'm ranting; I'm just so God damn mad.

[DaveinMD]

24. Good news

The fact that Bush stayed up only four means that Kerry bounced back after the warped day in the sample. When that day drops off, the the poll will be about even.

[mvd]

29. Zogby did say this in response to his latest poll

"This is reminding me more and more every day of 2000 -- with the lead changing every few days and no candidate able to put this away," he said."

Zogby doesn't think Bush has clear momentum. I think Bush might have just had a couple of great days. The new poll also has Democratic support higher than the last one does.

Combined with the new state polls, I think we're in fine shape.

[rockymountaindem]

30. With all the weighting that Zogby does, it's easy for Repubs to sway

this poll all over the place. All a Republican has to do is say that they are a Democrat voting for Bush. This drives down Kerry's supposed share of Democratic votes, and makes the weighting show that Kerry is losing support. If such people had answered truthfully that they are Republicans voting for Bush, and left the Democrats voting for Kerry number alone, things would probably be better for Kerry. As we all know, Zogby does weight the numbers and such a simple ploy could throw off even his best efforts to get an accurate picture. I don't know why nobody has brought this up yet.