NEWSWEEK POLL: Chimp 48 / Kerry 46 (RV)

[jefferson_dem]

Oct. 16 - With just 17 days remaining in the race to the White House, President George W. Bush and Sen. John Kerry remain locked in a dead heat, according to the NEWSWEEK poll, taken after Wednesday’s final debate in Arizona. In a three-way race with Independent candidate Ralph Nader, 48 percent of all voters say they would reelect Bush while 46 percent prefer Kerry.


Removing Nader, who draws just 1 percent of the vote, bumps the Kerry-Edwards ticket up to 47 percent, reducing the incumbent’s statistically insignificant lead to one point and suggesting that the independent candidate could pull a small number of votes away from the Democrat on Nov. 2. Before the debates began on Sept. 30, the Republican ticket held a commanding 11-point lead.

Results based on likely voters (as opposed to all registered voters) give Bush the edge, with Bush-Cheney pulling 50 percent of the vote and Kerry-Edwards drawing 44 percent in a three-way race (Nader still gets 1 percent). This suggests that turnout will be critical in determining the outcome of the election: Kerry now leads Bush 57 percent to 36 percent among those who identify themselves as first-time voters. The number of voters who say they are still open to switching candidates is actually fairly small, but still large enough to determine the popular vote winner: One in ten (11 percent) registered voters are still uncommitted.

Bush has a clear advantage with women, who prefer him 49 percent to 43 percent. Kerry has a slight edge with men, 50 percent to 46 percent. The Democrat also commands 50 percent of the youth vote (with Bush at 41 percent) and 54 percent of the senior vote (to Bush's 39 percent.) But Bush dominates the 30-49 set (56 percent to 39 percent). Voters aged 50 to 64 are split evenly, with 46 percent backing Bush and 48 percent Kerry.

<SNIP

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6260444/site/newsweek/

[Was_Immer]

1. Drudge has BUSH 50 Kerry 44 for newsweek

[jefferson_dem]

7. Sludge is, as usual, pimping the best case for Repukes - LV #s.

[Thrill]

2. Okay here comes the bullshit

pollsters trying to say Nader is pulling from Bush. YAWN

[FloridaPat]

18. Actaully that's what Nader said. Think about it - you're a repub

that hates Bush. You sure don't want to vote for a Democrat, so that leaves Nader. He said the people who will vote for him are evenly split with Dems and repubs. Of few independents thrown in for good fun.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. You Can Toss That Poll

The internals defy commom sense and twenty plus years of voting behavior...


The gender gap always favors Dems even in landslide losses and Reps always do better among men...

[Kukesa]

8. Try this poll from Princeton's Dr. Sam Wang; I think it's the best.

Link here:

http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html

Besides, he announces his poll is not biased, but he is -- he's a DEM.

[lancdem]

10. And they have Kerry winning 3 of the 4 demographic groups

but he's behind by 2?

[Bush was AWOL]

4. Say What?

"Bush has a clear advantage with women, who prefer him 49 percent to 43 percent. Kerry has a slight edge with men, 50 percent to 46 percent."

This does not make sense. Newsweek is all over the place, and probably the least consistent of all the polls.

[papau]

5. Bush drop, Kerry up in Ras poll - 4 point Bush now 2 point Bush

Election 2004

Date Bush Kerry
Today 48.3 46.2
Oct 15 49.0 45.5
Oct 14 48.5 45.9

[Mz Pip]

6. Wake up Nader voters!!!

Don't help put Chimp in the WH again.

Does anyone know of a pro Nader message board where we can go to post some reasonable, rational commentary??

If Kerry loses this, it will be bacause of Nader IMHO.

MzPip
:dem:

[DaveinMD]

9. this poll is off

and not because Bush is leading. Its off because it has Kerry up with men and down with women. That makes no sense at all and conflicts with 20 years of electoral results.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. Can We E-mail The Pollster?

These polls have a confidence level of 95%...


There is a one in twenty chance this poll is seriously flawed...

[TruthIsAll]

19. Absolutely right. Kerry wins womenby at least 10%.

tia

[59millionmorons]

12. HAHA

Newsweek in 2000

Oct 20
Bush 48
Gore 41

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct 27

Bush 49
Gore 41

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Newsweek – likely voters (Oct. 31-Nov. 2)
Margin of error +/- 4%

Bush 45%
Gore 43%

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

[sandnsea]

13. Bush leading women, Kerry leading men?

Where'd they poll? This is the total opposite of everything we know about this election.

[DaveinMD]

14. its the opposite

of everything that's happened in the last 24 years of politics. Mondale won women.

[sandnsea]

16. Misprint?

That's probably likely. It just makes no sense overall anyway. Kerry is leading with youth, boomers, seniors, women and minorities; but Bush is leading overall. I don't think that makes any statistical sense, does it?

[Pachamama]

15. Attn: These polls are BS-but there is a bright side:It's keeping the Dems

...from slowing their momentum and resting on our Laurels....we have to keep on fighting hard, canvassing, phonebanking, putting up signs, writing letters to our editors of papers, making trips to swing states if we can and not keeping our eye off the ball for one moment.

Bush has an advantage with Women? Who the hell are they kidding? That right there should be the giveaway of the accuracy of these polls....Anyone watch NOW w/ Bill Moyer last night and the focus on the Women vote? The single vote in particular? If you did, remember Penny Broback (sp?) - this single Mom of three earns less than $13,000 a year and is barely making it....You don't think she knows that an increase in minimum wage will make a difference in her life? She said so herself - $50.00 more a week ($40 after tax) would mean the difference of so much in her life, even the opportunity for her 18 year old to not have to join the Army and instead go to Community College....or to fix her car that just broke down and has 173,000 miles...She says this is the first election that she is voting in....She says she is "Undecided"....Yeah, right.....you think she is leaning Bush and Republican, (you know the party that trys to help "People help themselves" as the Nevada Lt. Governor said on the show)....

I say Kerry wins the Women vote by a Landslide....W=Wrong for Women, Wrong for the World....

:kick:

[PROGRESSIVE1]

17. There you go again, "News"weAk!

:eyes: