I am concerned about an Electoral Tie

[beyurslf]

I have been playing with an Electoral Calculator and have found several plausible situations where we tie in the Electoral Vote. The House of course would select Bush the winner in this situation.

If we lose AZ, CO, MO, AR, and LA
If we win OR, WA, MI, MN, WI, PA, NJ, NH, and ME
These are the states that I think are certain to go one way but were listed as toss ups by the map.

it leaves OH, FL, NM, NV, and IA. If we take the 3 smaller and lose the 2 larger, we have a tie.

it also happens if we win OH and IA but lose FL, NM, NV and WI.

it also happens if we take FL, OH, and IA but lose MI, WI, MN, NM, and NV. (This doesn't seem too likely but they are toos ups.)

[molly]

1. I think we are going to have more of a mess than

in 2000.

[bluestateguy]

2. Let's just be honest here: Bush needs 269, Kerry needs 270

barring a huge, and unlikely, Democratic tidal wave in the House, the House will give it to Bush. It will not be suspensful.

[Syncronaut Seven]

3. You can stop now.

If you have a talent for this your wasting your time here. Try Vegas, or online betting.

Meaningless drivel.

[ps1074]

4. I am not sure that in a 269-269 case the Congress will pick Bush

There is a 50-50 chance.

If Kerry wins the popular vote and we have a tie, the pressure will be huge on Congress to select Kerry as a president.

I mean they can't just vote Bush because there are more republicans in Congress. If Kerry gets the popular vote and a tie, then I predict Kerry will be the new president.

And if Bush wins the popular vote, then they will select him.

This I think goes beyond party lines and common sense is they will vote the the one with more popular votes.

[beyurslf]

7. Each state gets one vote in a tie and the Repubs control more of the

districts and have a majority in more states. Why wouldn't they follow their party? They do not represent districts that vote Dem; they represent Repub districts who probably voted for Bush.

[Orangepeel]

8. "they can't just vote Bush because there are more republicans in Congress"

of course they can. And, they will.

I don't think that a tie will happen, but if it does, bush will be selected again, this time by congress.

That MIGHT just be the catalyst needed to amend the constitution to modernize the presidential election process.

[AntiCoup2K4]

5. Will this country tolerate a 2 term unelected pResident??

8 years of the White House occupied by someone that the people did not choose??

If so, I don't see much hope left for America at all.

[tedoll78]

6. It is quite possible.

Gore states + New Hampshire + Nevada.

There you go. That's the most likely tie scenario, I think.

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Or..

Gore states - Iowa - Wisconsin + Ohio + Arkansas.

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Or..

Gore states - Wisconsin + Colorado4 + New Hampshire + Nevada + Arkansas.

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I could do this all afternoon long. I don't think it's likely. Here's my electoral prediction:

Gore states + Ohio + New Hampshire + Colorado4 = 288EVs.

Gore states most likely to defect: Iowa & Wisconsin.

[politicat]

9. Remember, Colorado's likely to pass 36. So JFK will get 4 or 5 electorals

either way.

(We're likely to go proportional.)

It kills us as a player in the national game, but it is fair.

Pcat

[pabloseb]

10. Are you taking ME into account?

Maine's EVs will be split 3 Kerry/1 * (because they use a slightly different system).
Also, Colorado 36 will *not* pass. It's already behind in vote intention, and even many democrats will vote no. And if it passes, it will be tossed out by the courts.
So Kerry needs to win either Florida, or Ohio and Wisconsin, or Ohio, Iowa and New Mexico, etc, etc.