Newsweek poll: first time voters favor Kerry 57-36

[WI_DEM]

Newsweek has a new poll out giving Bush 48% and Kerry 46%--basically a "dead-heat", but among likely voters Bush is up 50-44 percent, so Newsweek states, "turnout" will be vital.

First time voters (new registerees, are not considered likely voters, and here Kerry has a big lead--57-36 percent over Bush.

Interestingly, the gender gap in the Newsweek poll is turned around, Bush leads among females 49-43 while Kerry wins the male vote 50-46. Any explanation for this? could it be Bush's assertion in debate 2 that there will "absolutely be no draft"??

The "youth" vote goes to Kerry 50-41 and he also leads soidly with the "senior" vote 54-39. 50-64 year olds are split, while Bush enjoys a big lead with my age group, 30-49 year olds 56-39.

http://www.msnbc.com/id/620444/site/newsweek
all interviews were conducted following the final debate.

TIME also has a new poll showing a tied race 47-47 percent.
Among those who watched all three debates 57-27 percent say Kerry won the debates.

Who had the better understanding of issues during the debate 49-40 choose Kerry (much too close imo)

Who was more likable? Kerry 47-45.

Bottom line for all polls--Turnout is key.

[bluestateguy]

1. My explanation for this: The poll is garbage

Kerry leading with men, but behind among women? Hah? Has any other poll ever shown a reverse gender gap? They probably polled too many white married women and too many single or minority men.

[seaj11]

2. the gender gap

Quote:
"Interestingly, the gender gap in the Newsweek poll is turned around, Bush leads among females 49-43 while Kerry wins the male vote 50-46. Any explanation for this? could it be Bush's assertion in debate 2 that there will "absolutely be no draft"??"

That is possible. I think a lot of women are either unaware of Bush's clear intention to overturn Roe v Wade, or they are mothers who can't imagine killing their child and approve of Bush's anti-abortion position. I'll bet that's also why younger people lean towards Kerry, because Kerry is not anti-abortion, and being young, they value their freedoms. (Also, a lot of them probably don't yet have children.)

[xray s]

3. First time voters are NOT considered likely voters? WTF!!

That's bullshit. Anyone who takes the time to register this year is doing it because they are damn mad and will vote.

I hope the Bush boys believe this poll. All the better will be the the look on their faces on election night when Kerry KICKS THEIR ASS!

:kick:

[WI_DEM]

5. because they have no voting history

and traditionally it is the youngest voters 18-24 for instance which turnout is lowest--hopefully they will prove otherwise this year.

[Booster]

4. I've always said it will be the young and the elderly that

decide this election, and that's good for Kerry.

[Ksec]

6. The young people will be the ones who win this for Kerry .

New Voters will make this election a landslide, Im bettin on it.

[lancdem]

7. Do you have a link to to the Time poll?

Their last one had Bush up 4, so that's good news!

[unfrigginreal]

8. Here's a link to the Poll internals and a DU thread for the Time article

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Polls/Time-Trended_Data-2004-10-.pdf

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1088715