Why to be wary of polls: the lessons of 2000

[lancdem]

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajority.com

(A lot of the state and national polls that came out the last week in 2000 way underestimated Gore's support.)

The final Zogby tracking poll in California showed Al Gore with a razor thin 1 point lead over George Bush. Maybe that's why Bush ran off to California during the final few days of the campaign. Gore won the state by 12 points.

In Delaware, which was considered a swing state by many analysts in 2000, a late Mason-Dixon Poll had Bush leading Gore by 4 points. Gore won the state by 13.

In Illinois, which many pundits did not consider safe for Al Gore either, a Mason-Dixon Poll had Gore with only a 3 point lead and a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll had Bush with a 3 point lead. Gore carried the state by 12.

In Michigan almost all of the polls showed Al Gore with the lead. But a Market Research Group Poll completed on October 26 had Bush ahead by 6. Gore carried the state by 5. Market Research Group was a Republican polling organization and this year we're seeing a lot more of those Republican polls, a lot of them from an outfit called Strategic Vision. Take their results with a very large grain of salt.

[featherman]

1. great article and well worth everybody's attention heading into the

sprint. My favorite example was Zogby's final state poll showing Wisconsin to Bush by +6. There are a lot of folks on DU ready to write off Wisconsin this because of a few similar polls. Ain't gonna happen. WI is DEM.