Kerry Leads in Wisconsin 48-47, Claims Rasmussen

[DarthDem]

Naturally, Raz has completely buried this information on his site, but it's there. Can we all stop wringing our hands now about Wisconsin based on what Strategic Derision has to say? Even Rasmussen, who had WI for * by about 4-5 points last week, has captured which way the wind's blowing.

Gore states + NH + Ohio = 284, folks. I am starting to feel good.

[JohnKleeb]

1. Yes!

Good I was worried about them cheeseheads :D. Hey don't forget Virginia too, it's going blue..........I hope.

[jhain]

2. newbies

there are quite a few newbies- throw us a link whenever ya can!

[DarthDem]

4. Gotcha . . .

. . . but generally, I don't think linking to premium content is a good idea. I've never seen a formal rule about it here, but it seems logical. So, there's a good guy named louis c from Ohio who sums up all the Raz data at about 5:30 for everyone, without linking. I just felt like spilling the beans on this one early because Raz deliberately buried it on his site, for obvious reasons.

[Alexander]

3. Kerry can get a lot more than 284.

Remember, he can not only pick up New Hampshire and Ohio (which he will certainly do), but there's also potential in Arkansas, Florida, Nevada, Colorado, and maybe a couple of "sleeper" states that Kerry isn't focusing on, but could go his way anyway, like West Virginia and Missouri.

[JohnKleeb]

5. Virginia is one of those sleeper ones

Really, don't laugh but we are energized.

[DarthDem]

6. Oh, Listen - -

- - I completely agree with you. I'm just pointing out the significance of Ohio. :D I personally believe that Kerry will win both FL and OH, and I also have hopes for NV and CO. AR has been a state I've been yelling about for months, because the Gore states + NH + AR = 270, but the K/E campaign doesn't seem to want to spend any time or resources there, even though it's easy to reach the whole state and Clinton and Wes Clark can be deployed there.

I think WV is a lost cause for 2004, as is MO. Too many rural voters in the latter who just won't change their minds, and no environmentalist liberal is going to win WV these days. If Kerry wins, I think he should travel to WV frequently to familiarize people there with the modern face of the Democratic party, for future elections.

[fujiyama]

7. I was taking a look at election results

from the state of WI for the last 30 years. What is really interesting is how steady the vote there really is. Take a look:

Albert Gore Jr. Joseph Lieberman Democratic 1,242,987 47.83% 11
George W. Bush Richard Cheney Republican 1,237,279 47.61% 0
Ralph Nader Winona LaDuke WI Greens 94,070 3.62%

Michael Dukakis Lloyd Bentsen Democrat 1,126,794 51.41% 11
George Bush J. Danforth Quayle Republican 1,047,499 47.80%

Another very interesting thing is that if you add Gore's % in '00 with the Nader % in '00, you get ALMOST EXACTLY what Dukakis got in '88:

47.83%+3.62% =51.45 which is very close to the 51.41 Dukakis got in the state.

Ronald Reagan George Bush Republican 1,088,845 47.90% 11
James Carter Walter Mondale Democrat 981,584 43.18%

James Carter Walter Mondale Democrat 1,040,232 49.50% 11
Gerald Ford Robert Dole Republican 1,004,987 47.83%

Richard Nixon Spiro Agnew Republican 809,997 47.89% 12
Hubert Humphrey Edmund Muskie Democrat 748,804 44.27%

With the exception of the various blow out elections (like Reagan's landslide '80 victory or Nixon's '72 victory), a republican candidate there usually gets no more than 48% in the state. It's almost like a cap for them in the state. THat's why I'm actually quite confident we'll win there. I know this isn't exactly a reliable way of gauging how the state will go (the GOP has put a lot of effort in the state), but I'm pretty confident the dems will take it. I don't include the Clinton years here because the Perot thing is very difficult to factor in.

[DarthDem]

9. Interesting

Then there's that article linked off the front page about the huge Kerry rally in Appleton. Encouraging!!

[JohnnyCougar]

10. I'm pretty sure we voted for Dukakis, too.

Wisconsin has never gone Bush yet: Not in '88, '92 or 2000!

[KellyPaDem]

8. Another reason to feel happy...

I was just on www.electoral-vote.com and Strategic Vision (republican polling) has Florida at a tie. Does this mean someone like Zogby would have Florida for us? Its starting to change. (fingers crossed)

[Doosh]

12. I'm waiting for the electoral-vote guy to flip Wisconsin

after all, he goes on a "latest poll" basis, so it should read Kerry- 253 Bush- 247, unless he's waiting for another strategic vision poll:eyes: that website always seems to be down when Kerry is ahead.

[Doosh]

11. wow, good news

if true, he's made quite a comeback in that state.