Rasmussen Battleground Polls for 10/16 (All Good News)

[louis c]

Rasmussen 3 Day national tracking poll has Bush at 48.3% to Kerry at 46.2%. This is a 1.4% Kerry gain from yesterday.


http://www.rasmussenreports.com


In Weekly Numbers, Wisconsin is now Kerry 48%-47% up from a Bush lead of 48%-45% a week ago. That puts Kerry up 1 point in Wisconsin, 4 points in Iowa, and 4 points in today's poll in Minnesota. This is all great news.

In addition, Rasmussen has changed his Electoral Vote Projection from 240 for Bush to 169 for Kerry on the 8th of October to 213 for Bush to 194 for Kerry as of yesterday.

In the Rasmussen Premium 7 day rolling averages in 5 key states the numbers for today are trending very good:

Florida, Bush 48%-46% (This is another 1 point Kerry gain in a day, and 6 points in 9 days. This trend is the reason that Rasmussen moved Florida from Bush to toss-up yesterday)

Michigan Kerry 47%-45% (This is unchanged from yesterday)

Minnesota, Kerry 49%-45% (This is a 1 point Kerry gain from yesterday as the good news from the lakes continue)

Ohio, Bush 49%-46% (This is a 1 point Kerry gain from yesterday)

Pennsylvania, Kerry 48%-45% (This is a Bush gain of 1 point from yesterday. However, the inside numbers are very good for us. Bush's Favorable to unfavorable is 50%-50% while Kerry is at a +8 at 53%-45%)

Isn't it strange that one day Zogby looks good, and a couple of days later it's Rasmussen. Today, I like Rasmussen better.

[annerevere]

1. Thank you louis c!

Great news!

[Comicaze]

3. My Internal Numbers

Body Temperature: 98.6

Digestive Action: 43% Coffee, 56% Bagel, 1% Nader

As goes my colon, so goes Wisconsin.

[THUNDER HANDS]

13. LOL

I love it! :D

[lancdem]

2. Bush is giving up on PA and MI

so those are firmly in Kerry's column. It's great to see him not trailing in any blue state. That will allow him to concentrate on Ohio and Florida, where I believe Kerry is more than competitive.

[Sugarcoated]

5. What about all the talk about New Jersey?

I heard it's getting neck in neck there, from CNN or MSNBC. Is this just one poll they're going on to make the race more dramatic?

[louis c]

8. October 11

According to Rasmussen.

New Jersey, Kerry 53% to Bush 44%. That's some neck.

[DuaneBidoux]

30. I often don't predict

and I'm from Texas so what the hell do I know, but NJ for Bush? It AIN'T going to happen.

[fujiyama]

6. That is really great news

Sure I'd love to see KErry up by more in WI and IA, but these two states will be close no matter what.

I wish someone had a tracking poll of NM. It may be only 5 electoral votes, but Gore only won the state by 366 votes.

I heard that Bush was also conceding NH.

These states may not have a lot of EVs, but in a close election they all matter. Another small one is NV.

This allows Kerry to mostly focus on FL and OH, the two biggest toss ups.

[suegeo]

7. Florida? Why bother?

Using fraud and theft, Jeb has that state sealed up for his criminal brother.

[jab105]

22. We are working our asses off here in Florida!!

Canvassing has been very positive...

cross your fingers, work hard, and sleep in two weeks...
We are ushering the Edwards rally in Gainesville tomorrow afternoon, and then polling until sundown...

I'll sleep in two weeks:)

[wellstone dem]

28. So why doesn't he give up on Minnesota

I'm so sick of his ads.

[deadparrot]

4. Good. Keep it up.

[Laelth]

9. Thanks for the info ...

Polls are just getting less and less accurate. People screen calls. Cell phones can't be polled, and I know quite a few people who have only a cell phone. Trends, though, usually can be discerned. Nice to see the consistent, 9-day trend that Rasmussen sees. That is encouraging.

-Laelth

[louis c]

18. You're welcome

[Laelth]

10. Just as an aside ...

The freepers think Zogby is a partisan hack (Democrat). I tend to like and respect his work. Comments?

[On the Road]

11. Well, the Fox People are Partisan Hacks

but the Fox poll was the most accurate in 2000. To some extent you just never know. Not all variations are due to political influence.

[Ediacara]

32. He is a partisan, true, but he's an ACCURATE partisan

He was accurate in predicting a slim Gore victory in 2000, when others, especially Gallup, showed a Bush blowout. Rasmussen is also a partisan (Republican), but he too, is fairly ACCURATE.

Both Rasmussen and Zogby blasted the Time and Newsweek post-convention polls because they skewed the percentages of voters so heavily towards the Republicans (like 40% repub, and 32% dem).

Zogby and Rasmussen have reasonable statistics, so their numbers not only compliment eachother, they compliment REALITY.

And heck, John Zogby said something like, "party identification DOES change, but the change is positively GLACIAL in speed."

[DemMother]

12. Thanks for the news...DR has interesting info about what Rove thinks

"I just received the following message from a colleague at another university who is totally trustworthy:

"I have friend who is a co-chair of the Bush Cheney campaign. Rove believes that Bush needs to have a 4 point lead going into the last weekend to win given the undecideds that will break against the president."

also from today...good reminder

"Fasten your seat belts and make sure that your tray tables and seat backs are in their fully upright and locked positions. The 2004 presidential campaign is coming in for a landing and it's going to be a bumpy ride. You're going to see some strange poll results over the next two weeks and the most important thing to keep in mind is that if a poll's results don't make sense--if they seem to be out of line with most other polls or if they show a big difference between registered voters and likely voters--don't believe them."

more at...

http://emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/index.php

[watercolors]

14. Screw all polls

we don,t need to live by them! Just get your butts off, the couch out of the chair, off your computers and get out and help your local Dem headquarters.We can do this, I'm more energized every day talking to people. There is a strong Kerry base out there!

[louis c]

17. No Shitting

Because we at DU are "at our computers" don't think for a minute we don't know what it takes to win.

I spend one day a week in NH (I'm from Mass) campaigning. I am a Union President in Mass, and I have made sure that my members from NH (10%) are aware of the importance of their votes. They get a visit from me once a Month at work, and now once a week in October. I made sure everyone in their home is registered and that they will vote.

I have only one Maine Resident in my Local, and she's all set.

I have one Exec-Board member who lives in NH, and she makes calls for Kerry.

So please don't lecture me on how to campaign. If I want to read Polls and discuss them, don't think for one minute that I don't do the other things necessary to win.

[rumguy]

15. I'm so sick of the polls but

nice!

[DemMother]

16. kick

[Octafish]

19. Thanks, louis c!

Despite the media being owned and operated by the BFEE, the numbers show our horse has a chance!

Go John Kerry!

[Doctor_J]

20. still looks like a win for smirky to me

and since the debates are over, and the chimp no longer has to face anything but carefully screened crowds and the whoring media, he's probably bottomed out.

sorry, don't see any good news here atoll

[pmbryant]

21. Rasmussen had Bush over Gore 49-40 in 2000

I think that shows how much we can rely on his polls, whatever they show these days.

--Peter

[louis c]

27. Rasmussen didn't weight his numbers in 2000

He has corrected that.

Gallup did the same thing in 2000, has has not corrected it.

Zogby was right on in 2000, and his numbers and Rasmussen's are nearly identical.

[pmbryant]

31. Zogby only was right if you count polls the day before election day

In his polls in October, he consistently gave Bush the same 3-6 point lead over Gore that most of the other major media polls did.

--Peter

[louis c]

33. The only true measurement

is the last poll before election day.

All the rest are pure speculation.

[louis c]

24. The undecideds will break our way

Get with it. The events will dictate a Kerry victory. He will win by 3 or 4 points and carry over 280 electoral votes.

[shivaji]

23. Rasmussen has the worst record amongst pollsters....ignore him.

Rely on Zogby & to some extent Gallup.

[louis c]

25. Gallup's the worst.

Rasmussen and Gallup both missed 2000 by about the same amount.

Rasmussen explained his mistake, which was to deliver raw data without weighting. He has since corrected it. He's numbers have been similar to Zogby all year, and today (10/17) they are exactly the same (Bush by 2, trending toward Kerry).

Gallup, on the other hand was off by 9 points in 2000, admitted to no mistake, has corrected nothing, and today has Bush up by 8 points. That's a 9 point swing to Bush in a week that had nothing but bad news for Bush. Ya, he makes perfect sense. More like a perfect asshole.

[DaveinMD]

26. I agree with this

very well said.

[DuaneBidoux]

29. Even Zogby doesn't look that bad today

Bush only up by 2 but the really good news is buried down in the undecided column, where 7% of the voters are still saying undecided. If history holds a guide, undecideds break 2/1 for the challenger.