Is Zogby Playing With Us? -Woody's Lead Down To A Deuce

[DemocratSinceBirth]

www.reuters.com


Of all the things I value most is intellectual consistency... I am on the record as stating that I believe Zogby has certain story lines or memes that he uses his polls to advance... Sometimes these story lines favor the Dems and sometimes they don't but they are story lines nonetheless.... I'll give you some examples


-he had Gore ahead by only one point in Cali in his final 00 tracking poll.... Gore won by a dozen...

-he had Rick Lazio beating Hillary Clinton in New York... I think HRC had a double digit win...

-he had Dean closing the gap in New Hampshire in the final weekend before the primary... I believe Kerry won by a dozen...

These were interesting story lines because they defied conventional wisdom....

Is this correlation or causation?

Who knows?

Anyway it's 46% Woody 44% Kerry....

As an aside my girlfriend and I were driving around the more affluent areas of Winter Park and Orlando...We saw a decent share of Kerry Edwards signs as well as the hideous Bush-Cheney ones..

Peace

Go Dems

Brian

[fujiyama]

1. You have it at 44% Gore

I think you meant Kerry.

:-)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. TY- Woody Was A Gleam In Karl Rove's Eye Then (nt)

[shmendrick]

2. He's inaccurate

Zogby got one poll right, Clinton/Bush I, and has been quite inaccurate since then.

I don't know why anyone puts any stock in him. He's as wrong as his brother is.

[unfrigginreal]

6. I bet you think Strategic Vision is accurate though.

Don't make a fool of yourself posting nonsense like "Zogby got one poll right...Clinton/Bush I". He accurately projected Bush II's defeat in 2000, didn't he?

[shmendrick]

9. Strategic Vision?

I don't know what that is.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. He Had 00 48-46-5

The actual results were 48.3 47.7 2.75


And he did come within a 1/10 of a point in 96 not 92....

[TomClash]

10. Go back to Freeperland, Racist

[snippy]

21. Why can't republicans ever tell the truth?

[davhill]

29. Because it would

"Send the wrong message"

[izzie]

3. When Rush said he only believed in that poll a few year back-----

I just put it in with all the others. You sort of look but it is only the vote that counts. Well that was true once. I sort of trust Maine.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Rush Liked His Polls During The Lewinsky Brouhaha

because it consistently showed Clinton as not as popular as the other polls suggested...

[papau]

4. 7% undecided leaning 2 to 1 to Kerry - I like the numbers!

<snip>Bush led Kerry by 46 percent to 44 percent in the latest three-day tracking poll of the closely contested race for the White House. The president led the Massachusetts senator by 48 percent to 44 percent the previous day.

"The third debate is now registering among voters and Kerry had a good day," pollster John Zogby said.

The new tracking poll found Kerry regained a good lead among 18- to 29-year-old voters and consolidated his advantage among Hispanics. Bush and Kerry were tied among Roman Catholics, a group Kerry, himself a Catholic, must win to capture the White House, Zogby said.

Among the 7 percent of voters still undecided, Bush had a 34 percent positive job rating, versus a 66 percent negative rating. Only 18 percent of undecided respondents said the president deserved re-election, while 39 percent said it was time for someone new. In the latter group, 99 percent said they were likely to vote.

<snip>

[unfrigginreal]

8. It's a tracking poll - what is hard to understand about a 2 pt swing?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. My point is larger...

I made four five points in this thread...


I'm waiting for one to be refuted...

As long as none are refuted we are left that with the inescapable conclusion that they are true...

[unfrigginreal]

13. Uh, your point is that he's been wrong on some of his polls?

Wow, who'd a thought that possible? Thank God we have other pollsters and they're never wrong.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. I Sense A Little Spinning Here...

His polls have been wrong when being wrong is a great story...


Bush was never one point behind in Cali the weekend before the election but that was a great story because Gore was finished without Cali....

As an aside Zogby had a correction the next day or so saying that was a misprint.... Hmmmmm

Rick Lazio was never beating Hillary Clinton but a lot of Pukes wanted to see her humiliated...


John Kerry was never in danger of losing New Hampshire after Dean's collapse in Iowa but that made for a great story...

In his final New Hampshire poll Zogby had it pretty much right and wrote something to the affect that his weekend polling was an abberation...

I see a pattern and practice...

[unfrigginreal]

16. Well, we each have our preferences

BTW, which pollsters do you find more accurate than Zogby?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. That's A Good Question...

I look at all the polls in their entirety or throw out the "best" and "worst" ones for my guy...


I'll give Zogby his props but some of his polls and comments make me suspicious...


If I had a favorite polling organization it would be Harris... He was JFK's personal pollster and told him to get a good night sleep the eve of the election because he's going to be the next pres....

[cosmicone]

23. A poll is a snapshot in time

and also prone to sampling errors.

Unless you have conclusive proof that

a) No Californians changed their minds on the day of the election

b) No New Yorkers changed their minds about Hillary and

c) No Dean supporters decide at the last minute to go for Kerry

your observations are speculative.

People DO change their minds on the last day. It is even more likely when their initial choices were driven by ideology/emotion rather than logic.

That is why I think Kerry will win in a landslide. When it comes right down to pulling the lever, many people will have second thoughts about the chimp and logic will prevail.

In my opinion, even if Kerry is trailing in polls on the last day by <6.5% he will win the election.

I also think that Nader will never get as many votes as the polls suggest for the same reason. It is one thing to prop Nader up to a pollster and quite another to sentence oneself for four more years of the chimpenführer.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. In Every Instance I Cited The Zogby Poll Was Contradicted By Other Polls

In The Field...


All the reliable polls showed Gore with a comfortable lead in Cali the weekend before the election...


All the reliable polls showed Kerry with a strong lead coming out of Iowa that never waned during the days leading up to and including the day of the New Hampshire primary....


In these two instances even Zogby admitted his polls were anamolus...

[fujiyama]

14. My hope

is that this will indicate a trend...showing that Mary Cheney thing to be blowing over. I think the story is losing steam (or at least I hope).

As long as Rove has the media cover bullshit stories, they win. There are far too many important things happening though, and in any sane world, even the media can't help but covering those.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. I Agree...

I wanted to see the internals on the Washington Post poll..

www.washingtonpost.com

It won't open...

Not to you...

Most pollsters are smart enough to get it pretty much right but they are also smart enough to get it wrong when they want to...

[quaker bill]

17. Signs around Orlando

There is a long waiting list for Kerry/Edwards yard signs at headquarters in Orlando. My wife is working there and is contacting people as they are delivered. A large number signs have been stolen all over town. I understand that an order of 10,000 signs is due in shortly. It should look alot better around town next week.

We did canvassing in our Winter Park neighborhood yesterday and found a very good number of fired up supporters.

I think the "likely voter" model is missing something. Alot of people who perhaps were a bit apathetic in 2000 are truly angry this time out. I think turn out for our side will swamp the prediction models.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. I Saw A Kerry-Edwards Sign At A Business On New England Ave

[unfrigginreal]

22. Damn, that's a GREAT report.

Not sure that I agree about swamping the prediction models though. I hope it's true, it feels like it should be true but we all thought the same thing about Dean. There was going to be a huge influx of new voters that weren't showing up in the polling. It turned out to be nothing but wishful thinking. OTOH, I think the prediction models will be pointing to a larger than expected, at this time, Kerry lead going into Nov. 2nd.

[davhill]

28. Every Kerry-Edwards sign in our Orlando Neighborhood

Was torn down by a roving gang of thugs the other night. I found some torn up pieces and set them up against a telephone pole just to show people what we are up against.

[Zynx]

25. A four point lead is so minor I'm not surprised it was wiped out by

another day of polling.

[John_H]

26. I hope he continues to have chimp slightly ahead until election day.

One or two points would be good to scare the shit out of most dems--and send them to the polls.

[Harlan James]

27. Just Rattling Around Within The Margin Of Error

One of the many conclusions that will be drawn from this election is that the polls really couldn't come up with a clue in 2004. Their inability to reach cell phone only users (many of them young people driven to register to vote for the first time out of fear Bush will force them into the military and get them killed), plus the massive refusal of many to even pick up their phones due to years of saturation telemarketing, makes whatever prognostications they dare venture only slightly better than a visit to the neighborhood palm reader.

Most polling organizations are facing the same kinds of challenges as the old media that they are an appendage of, they're losing relevance. Massive change is taking place, and they have yet to figure out a way to come to grips with it.

After the election expect many thoughtful articles about how the polling industry needs to meet the challenges of this brave new world, and the many ways they can accomplish this goal. Should be about as exciting as watching paint dry.