"Bush, 2 point lead, 3rd debate registers w/ voters: Kerry had a good day"

[Bush_Eats_Beef]

"Democratic challenger John Kerry (news - web sites) cut President Bush (news - web sites)'s lead to 2 points with just over two weeks to go before the Nov. 2 election, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released October 17, 2004. (Reuters Graphic)"

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=578&u=/nm/20041017/pl_nm/campaign_poll_sunday_dc_4

Bush led Kerry by 46 percent to 44 percent in the latest three-day tracking poll of the closely contested race for the White House. The president led the Massachusetts senator by 48 percent to 44 percent the previous day.

"The third debate is now registering among voters and Kerry had a good day," pollster John Zogby said.

The new tracking poll found Kerry regained a good lead among 18- to 29-year-old voters and consolidated his advantage among Hispanics. Bush and Kerry were tied among Roman Catholics, a group Kerry, himself a Catholic, must win to capture the White House, Zogby said.

Among the 7 percent of voters still undecided, Bush had a 34 percent positive job rating, versus a 66 percent negative rating. Only 18 percent of undecided respondents said the president deserved re-election, while 39 percent said it was time for someone new. In the latter group, 99 percent said they were likely to vote.

[ruggerson]

1. If this poll had bad news

about thirty people would have commented on it so far

[KittyWampus]

7. I Appreicate & Applaud How Responsible The Original Poster Was

gave us all the pertinent information rather than just posting some numbers with no link or internal info.

[swag]

2. Kick, and rate it high - the guts of that poll are extraordinary.

Keep working, Dems.

Homestretch!

[Bush_Eats_Beef]

3. The key 2 sentences...the ones that NEED to be kicked:

"Bush had a 34 percent positive job rating, versus a 66 percent negative rating. Only 18 percent of undecided respondents said the president deserved re-election, while 39 percent said it was time for someone new."

[Mr_Spock]

4. Well, I don't like poll threads, I like the horserace graphic - it's close

...and let's hope a tie goes to the challenger as people who want to vote for a winner and lean Democratic feel confident that they are going to be able to pull it off - AND THEIR VOTE REALLY COUNTS!

[Wakeup_America]

5. Daily Tracking Poll numbers

Out of frustration with Kerry's lousy poll numbers yesterday, I put together a math. algorithm (based on least-squares/linear programming) to crack the daily percentages (not an easy problem) for the various tracking polls. The algorithm seems to work quite well. Here are the Zogby's numbers over the last 5 days:

Day Bush Kerry
10/12 45.65 44.90
10/13 47.45 46.70
10/14 50.90 40.40
10/15 45.65 44.90
10/16 41.45 46.70

As you can see Kerry had a good day yesterday (6pt. lead) and a lousy day last Thursday. Tomorrows poll will not include the Thursdays results so it will most likely show Kerry in the lead or tie (Kerry is ahead 46-44 over the last two days).

Washington Post/ABC Daily Numbers show a lot more fluctuations than the Zogby's:

Day Bush Kerry
10/11 46.00 52.00
10/12 46.30 50.20
10/13 51.70 41.80
10/14 46.00 52.00
10/15 52.30 47.20

So in this poll Bush had a good day yesterday but Kerry should do well in todays poll (to be released later this afternoon)as the 10/13 (Bush 51/Kerry 41) number will be dropped from the average.

I think the new CNN/USA T/GALLUP poll will be released today (covering the last 2-3 days). Based on the above tracking polls, I am expecting a tie or a small (1-2 pt) Kerry lead.

[newyawker99]

6. Hi Wakeup_America!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast: