ELECTION MODEL KERRY WIN PROBABILITIES: NAT. VOTE 99.15%, STATE EV 99.10%

[TruthIsAll]

The models differ by .05%!

Two totally different methods - same result!

The National Model calculates the probability Kerry's national vote will exceed 50%.

The State Model calculates the probability Kerry's EV total will exceed 270.

That's confirmation!

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[lablue]

1. i'm with you but kerry average ahead

I know I havent read all the details, but your national average before undecided allocation has kerry very slightly ahead - all the polls i've been watching has bush slightly ahead - that said, good work - and anything less than a 4 point bush poll average makes kerry a winner

[TruthIsAll]

2. Did you take the average of 18 National Polls?

Check out the poll details.

As I write this, I see that Gallup has just announced Bush is ahead 52-44.

Pure BUSHIT!

[NewYorkerfromMass]

3. I like the latest Zogby

If we can hold Bush to 47% we win.

[question everything]

4. This is great. Let's hope that things do not change all of a sudden

that these results do not energize the Bushies.

I am keeping a spread sheet of the electoral votes. After filling the date from your link, I have only the following as still undecided:

Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana and Maine

Does this fit with your model?

[TruthIsAll]

5. Response

Use the Link to the polling data:

You will see the following:
Colorado 49-49
Iowa 47-47
Louisiana Bush 52-44 (NOT a battleground state)
Maine Kerry 49-47

[question everything]

7. Thanks. So I have the following going for Kerry

CA, CO, DE, DC, FL, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NH, NJ, NM, NY, OH, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA, WI - total of 305 E.V.

Obviously, things can change but this means, I hope, that we have a safety margin of 30 E.V.

Does this make sense?

[Fed Up]

6. if they're still undecided as they walk into polling station, it's good

for John Kerry, IMO. I just can't see these stubborn people saying to themselves, "Nah, I think I better stick with Bush," as they stand behind the curtain wondering who to vote for.

Just like the folks on Let's Make a Deal, do you want to stick with the refrigerator you just won, or do you wanna take a chance on a new car?

If they're undecided this long they must seriously doubt Bush anyway, and I think they'll take that chance with JK.

TIA good job.