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How do people know that the newest Gallup poll oversampled Republicans?

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Goldmund Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-17-04 11:41 AM
Original message
How do people know that the newest Gallup poll oversampled Republicans?
I read repeated references that the newest Gallup poll oversampled Republicans by 9%. Anybody have a link to the internals?

Thanks.
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Misunderestimator Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-17-04 11:44 AM
Response to Original message
1. I found this, since I was curious, which DOES back up the claim:
Edited on Sun Oct-17-04 11:46 AM by Misunderestimator
although these samples are from September, it does indicate a trend.

http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/002806.html

<snip>
the Gallup Poll, despite its reputation, assumes that this November 40% of those turning out to vote will be Republicans, and only 33% will be Democrat. You read that correctly. I asked Gallup, who have been very courteous to my requests, to send me this morning their sample breakdowns by party identification for both their likely and registered voter samples they use in these national and I suspect their state polls. This is what I got back this morning:

Likely Voter Sample Party IDs – Poll of September 13-15
Reflected Bush Winning by 55%-42%

Total Sample: 767
GOP: 305 (40%)
Dem: 253 (33%)
Ind: 208 (28%)

Registered Voter Sample Party IDs – Same Poll
Reflected Bush Winning by 52%-44%

Total Sample: 1022
GOP: 381 (38%)
Dem: 336 (33%)
Ind: 298 (30%)
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wolfgirl Donating Member (950 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-17-04 11:55 AM
Response to Original message
2. Check this out...this indicates to me that Gallup carefully
selects the participants.

From the "on line survey site" You get this note when you submit your response

NOTE:
Thank you for participating in this online survey. Please note that your answers do not affect the results shown on the site. All data shown are from statistically reliable Gallup telephone surveys that have already been conducted. This survey is not intended to provide a summary of public opinion. The results will not be tabulated or used in any way. Rather, this provides you a chance to compare your opinions with those of the U.S. public, as reflected in telephone interviews conducted October 9-10, 2004, with 1,015 national adults, aged 18+. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
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popstalin Donating Member (163 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-17-04 12:01 PM
Response to Original message
3. Here's something I wrote on my blog about the Gallup poll
I hate to keep writing about the polls but the closer the election gets, the more apparent it is that there is just no "Fair and Balanced" representation in the media. The Gallup Polls are a prime example of this corruption.

It would appear that the CEO of the Gallup Organization, James Clifton, is a member of the Republican party. How do we know this? Just by doing a search on OpenSecrets.org showed that Mr. Clifton donated $2,000 to Herman Cain, a Right Wing Republican Georgia Senate candidate. I then went to the FEC web site and conducted a search and this link is a photocopy of Mr. Clifton's donation.


http://popstalin.com/news/index.php?op=ViewArticle&articleId=10&blogId=1
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