Gallup's Swings Are Distorted

[ruggerson]

Here's the Likely Voter numbers from 7 days ago

Kerry 49
Bush 48

Here they are from today's poll

Bush 52
Kerry 44


Gallup wants us to believe that in an incredibly tight election, with all the other polls showing the race between 0 and 4 points, within the margin of error, that there was a 4 point loss for Kerry and a 4 point gain for Bush in the space of a week. Just doesn't happen. Not in the real world of statistics, unless there is a major event. Gallup's numbers are distorted because they do not adjust their samples - Zogby and Rassmussen would also show wild swings from day to day (that is the nature of polling), but they are smart enough to re weight their results instead of just spewing out raw data like Gallup does. Basically, these Gallup numbers, just like the ones last week showing Kerry leading, are worthless.


Trust the tracking polls, which do rolling averages for three days.
This is about a 2 point race right now, which is good news for Kerry as the challenger usually picks up the overwhelming majority of the undecideds.

[rjbny62]

1. Gallup has a consistent track record of being all over the map

This is what Gallup told us in 2000:
ALL LV

Oct17

Bush 48
Gore 42

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct18

Bush 49
Gore 39

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.


Oct19

Bush 50
Gore 40

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct20

Bush 51
Gore 40

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct21

Bush 50
Gore 41

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct22

Bush 46
Gore 44

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct23

Bush 45
Gore 46

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct 24

Bush 48
Gore 43

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct25

Bush 49
Gore 42

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct26

Bush 52
Gore 39

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct27

Bush 49
Gore 42

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct28

Bush 49
Gore 42

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct30

Bush 47
Gore 44

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct31

Bush 48
Gore 43

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Nov1

Bush 47
Gore 43

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Nov2

Bush 48
Gore 42

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Nov3

Bush 47
Gore 43

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Nov4

Bush 48
Gore 43

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Nov5

Bush 47
Gore 45

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Nov6 (last poll before the election)

Bush 48
Gore 46

[Bleacher Creature]

2. It's even more ridiculous when you consider

that their polls also showed Kerry as having won the debate last week.

Basically, they are showing a 9 point shift from Kerry to Bush OVER AND ABOVE anyone who shifted from Bush to Kerry after the debates.

If you estimate (conservatively) that 3-4% of the electorate switched from Bush to Kerry after Wednesday, it would mean that 12-13% of the electorate switched from Kerry to Bush.

If you really believe that 15-17% of the total electorate shifted last week, I have some beachfront property to sell you in Arizona.