What the heck is a *likely* voter and WHY is Bush doing better amongst

[mzmolly]

them?

http://www.pollingreport2.com/wh2004a.htm

For example the Newsweek poll on 10/15 shows Bush with a 5 point lead among "likely" voters and only a one point lead among "registered" voters.

The trend is that Bush is doing better with these "likely" voters ... who are they and why is Bush ahead with them ?

[CO Liberal]

1. "Likely" Voters are Those Who Voted in the Past Few Elections

"Registered" voters include new voters and those who just stay home.

[cheshire]

7. Ashcroft look a bit hyper as a bobblehead.

[Spiffarino]

2. A "likely voter" is one who voted recently

In most polls, they are people who voted in the last general election (in this case, 2000).

Generally speaking most of these polls oversample religious Republicans and older Americans because they are more likely to vote in most every election.

[naufragus]

15. also

more likely to sit and take a phone poll.

i will be at my mom's and some salesman calls and she just gets sucked in. i will tell her "mom, just hang up, just hang up, HANG UP"

she is just from another generation and feels rude. she also always rushes to the phone. i am always like "mom, you have a machine just let it pick up"

she also doesnt screen using caller id like most of us do. i have told her time and again if she doesnt know the number just let the machine get it

[HFishbine]

3. I found this article very insightful

Lots of good stuff, but here's a snip:

Sixty percent of registered voters who say they "rarely" vote in major elections also say America is headed in the wrong direction. If they go to the polls next month, they will support Kerry over Bush by more than a 2-to-1 margin.

These marginal voters are often ignored by pollsters because, by their own admission, they usually aren't players in the political process. But "rarely" does not mean never, and there are plenty of signs that marginal voters are taking interest in this election. In fact, that's what they're saying.

Voters were asked: "How much attention would you say you have been giving to the presidential election. Would you say you have been following the race very closely, somewhat closely or not too closely?" About 90 percent of regular voters say they are either "very closely" or "somewhat closely" watching the race. But about 75 percent _ an extraordinarily high number _ of registered voters who "rarely" vote in major elections say they also are watching the presidential race closely.

more: http://www.newspolls.org/story.php?story_id=33

[Quixote1818]

11. Also, usually about HALF of these voters DO show up!!!

Newsweek – likely voters (Oct. 31-Nov. 2)
Margin of error +/- 4%

Bush 45%
Gore 43%


Newsweek – all registered voters (Oct. 31-Nov. 2)
Margin of error +/- 4%

Bush 41%
Gore 44%
Buchanan 0%
Nader 5%

[mzmolly]

12. * Thanks Fishbine! From the looks of this data, I'm most relieved.

I seriously think that Kerry supporters are going to be more motivated. Though the "gay marriage" :eyes: ballot issue will bring Bush voters to the polls who might not otherwise be encouraged, I think we've got far more first time voters then they do.

These marginal voters are often ignored by pollsters because, by their own admission, they usually aren't players in the political process. But "rarely" does not mean never, and there are plenty of signs that marginal voters are taking interest in this election. In fact, that's what they're saying.

[dogman]

4. *likely* to vote for B$$$

Meets the corporate media criteria.

[demwing]

5. In many polls, "Likely Voter" means REPUBLICAN

thats all

[diplomats]

6. Many likely voter samples include

more Repukes than are in RV samples.

[Rose Siding]

8. Here's the best explanation I've seen...

but it still makes me want to slap people...

http://nomoremister.blogspot.com/
An new Scripps/Ohio University poll has three results:

Kerry 50%, Bush 44%

Kerry 50%, Bush 45%

Kerry 47%, Bush 48%

The Votemaster at Electoral-Vote.com explains:

The first poll came from calling households at random and asking if the respondent was 18 or over and a resident of the United States. This filter resulted in telephone interviews with 1022 people. Among this group Kerry has a lead substantially outside the poll's 3% margin of error. After asking about who the respondent planned to vote for, the interviewer asked: "Are you registered to vote at your current residence?" It turns out 15% were not. Once they were removed from the data, we get line 2, the registered voters, where Kerry is still ahead outside the margin of error. Next question was: "Are you certain or almost certain to vote?" Counting only the people who said yes, we get line 3 in the table, what are often called "likely voters." In short, in the adult resident population at large, Kerry is way ahead, but among likely voters it is a statistical tie.

So if we get out the vote, we win.

http://nomoremister.blogspot.com/

[mzmolly]

13. That's what I'm thinkin' and with several organizations working on just

that, I'm encouraged. :hi:

[Nicholas_J]

20. In other polls

Where they poll "Registered voters" as well as "Likely voters" Kerry doe far better as well, either equalling Bush in close polls or passing him in equal polls of likely voters.

Again, many polls for some reason are polling more republicans than democrats, presuming for some reason, that more republicans are going to vote than democrats. There is no historical precedent for this as for the last few election cycles, more democrats have voted than republicans.

[Quixote1818]

9. Take a look at which Newsweek poll was closer in 2000

It was a five point swing and the actual vote tally ended up about half way in between. In other words half of those who were not "likely voters" showed up!!!!! This is very important and not often considered enough in most polling.



Newsweek – likely voters (Oct. 31-Nov. 2)
Margin of error +/- 4%

Bush 45%
Gore 43%


Newsweek – all registered voters (Oct. 31-Nov. 2)
Margin of error +/- 4%

Bush 41%
Gore 44%
Buchanan 0%
Nader 5%

[mzmolly]

17. Interesting, and I think this year "likely" voters are not going to be

as reliable as they were in 2000. The left is more motivated this time!

[naufragus]

10. Dont they ask you

"how likely are you to vote".....

it seems to me that people are self qualifing themselves.

who are these registered voters who are NOT voting is what i am questioning

[mzmolly]

18. See post 14 for greater explaination.

Welcome to DU! :hi:

[Mantra]

14. Gallup LV Model - Now it wil make sense to you.

For those of you who are not familiar with Gallup's LV questions, this is from Ruy at Donkey Rising I encourage you to visit his site and read more.
-----------------
As a public service, I reproduce here the fabulous questions with which the Gallup folks produce their fabulous LV samples:


1. SALIENCE: How much thought have you given to the upcoming election for president?-- quite a lot, or only a little? ("Quite a lot" or "Some" as a volunteered response score one point)

2. KNOWLEDGE: Do you happen to know where people who live in your neighborhood go to vote? ("Yes" scores one point)

3. BEHAVIOR: Have you ever voted in your precinct or election district? ("Yes" scores one point)

4. BEHAVIOR: How often would you say you vote--always, nearly always, part of the time, or seldom? ("Always" or "Nearly always" scores one point}

5. INTENTION: Do you, yourself, plan to vote in the presidential election on November ( * ), or not? ("Yes" scores one point)

6. BEHAVIOR: In the presidential election, did you vote for (* ) or ( *), or did things come up to keep you from voting?

7. INTENTION: I'd like you to rate your chances of voting in the upcoming election for president on a scale of 1 to 10. If "1" represents someone who definitely will not vote, and "10" represents someone who definitely will vote, where on this scale of 1 to 10 would you place yourself?


If a voter answers each of these questions the "right" way, they get a 7, miss one and you get a 6, and so on. In practice that typically means all of the 7s--given full weight--plus some proportion of those with lower scores (usually the 6s), who are weighted down so that the size of the likely voter sample matches the projected turnout for the year (apparently 55 percent this year). All other voters are discarded from the sample.

So if you have recently moved or are a new voter, you will probably not be counted by Gallup.

[mzmolly]

16. And with Dem voter registration what it is???

:)

[newyawker99]

21. Hi Mantra!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[naufragus]

19. Where are the call centers?

when i was in college there was a M/A/R/C call center in the town. 98% of the people working there where collge students.

It was some place you worked at maybe a month at most to make extra cash. no one tried to be scientific. they decided if you answer was somewhat likely or not likely. they would do what ever it took to get a completed survey. if the phones didnt auto dial, they just called people they knew and had us complete surveys for them instead of using the call sheets.

the hardest part for them was getting people to complete the entire survey...