Gallup Has Bush Up By 8-POINTS??? WTF!?!?!?!?!?!

[Placebo]

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Choice for President

Likely Registered
Voters Voters

Bush 52% 49%
Kerry 44 46
Nader 1 1

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

FOR RELEASE: Sunday, October 17 at noon

Interviews with 1,013 adult Americans, including 788 likely voters and 942 registered voters, conducted by telephone on October 14-16, 2004

Although Americans think John Kerry did the best job in the debates, that has not translated into an increase in his popularity, which in turn means that he appears to have lost a little ground to Bush. Among registered voters, a 48%-48% tie is now a 49%-46% edge for Bush -- not much of a difference and, with the sampling error, not a significant change. The Gallup likely voter model, which identified those respondents who are most likely to cast a ballot, is magnifying those shifts, with a 49%-48% advantage for Kerry turning into a 52%-44% lead for Bush. What's going on?

For one thing, the charge that Kerry is too liberal, which Bush emphasized mostly in the third and last debate on Wednesday night, seems to be sticking. Nearly half say Kerry's political views are too liberal. (Four in ten say Bush is too conservative.) But didn't Kerry win the debate? Yes, as with the first two debates, the public thinks Kerry did the better job on Wednesday night. But as Al Gore learned in 2000, winning a debate on points does not necessarily translate into votes or make a candidate more popular. As in 2000, Bush's favorable ratings -- Americans view of him as a person -- went up after a debate that he lost. Kerry's favorable rating has remained flat. Republicans seem more enthusiastic about the election, and thus more likely to vote, as reflected in the Gallup likely voter model.

Bush may have energized his base in the final debate at the expense of not appealing to a wider audience -- but he managed to do so in a way that made him more popular than Kerry.

DID I MENTION YET TODAY HOW MUCH I HATE THESE PEOPLE? :grr:

[endnote]

1. DUPE. 10th time or so, today.

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

2. Should read, "Interviews with 1,013 adult Republicans"

[high density]

3. They'll do anything to suppress Dem turnout....

...but it's not going to work.

[mzmolly]

4. Read the analysis on Gallup. The good news is that he gives Republicans

false hope. They won't feel the urgent need to get to the polls.

[BamaLefty]

8. Dirt on Gallup

They usually sample more Repubs than Dems. I wouldn't want more Democrats to be sampled than Repubs... an equal split is what would give us an indication.

:kick:

[Rex_Goodheart]

5. "Republicans seem more enthusiastic about the election."

Bullshit.

[friesianrider]

10. My thoughts exactly...bunch of shit...

They're always fired up - they get fired up about the election for county waste disposer if there's a Republican running.

Look a the new voter reg rates!! There's a reason 3/4 of them are Dems!

Gallup is SO GOP-bent it's not even worth our time.

[montana500]

6. october 20th 2000 - Bush leads Gore by 13% in likely voters

?????

[Cory]

13. Actually it was the 27th

Gallup should have lost all credibility in 2000 but its obvious that people have short memories:

http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/10/27/cnntime.poll/index.html

On the 27th of October 2000 they had Bush up by 13 percentage points. The only poll to get it right was Harris who looks like they are staying out of it this year (they've only done one poll which gave Kerry the lead).

Gallup and especially Strategic Vision should just a get an eyeroll when they release their polls.

[DuaneBidoux]

15. Thanks for the reality check....

[Mantra]

7. What you need to know about Gallup LV Model. It's rubbish.

For those of you who are not familiar with Gallup's LV questions, this is from Ruy at Donkey Rising I encourage you to visit his site and read more.
-----------------
As a public service, I reproduce here the fabulous questions with which the Gallup folks produce their fabulous LV samples:
1. SALIENCE: How much thought have you given to the upcoming election for president?-- quite a lot, or only a little? ("Quite a lot" or "Some" as a volunteered response score one point)

2. KNOWLEDGE: Do you happen to know where people who live in your neighborhood go to vote? ("Yes" scores one point)

3. BEHAVIOR: Have you ever voted in your precinct or election district? ("Yes" scores one point)

4. BEHAVIOR: How often would you say you vote--always, nearly always, part of the time, or seldom? ("Always" or "Nearly always" scores one point}

5. INTENTION: Do you, yourself, plan to vote in the presidential election on November ( * ), or not? ("Yes" scores one point)

6. BEHAVIOR: In the presidential election, did you vote for (* ) or ( *), or did things come up to keep you from voting?

7. INTENTION: I'd like you to rate your chances of voting in the upcoming election for president on a scale of 1 to 10. If "1" represents someone who definitely will not vote, and "10" represents someone who definitely will vote, where on this scale of 1 to 10 would you place yourself?

If a voter answers each of these questions the "right" way, they get a 7, miss one and you get a 6, and so on. In practice that typically means all of the 7s--given full weight--plus some proportion of those with lower scores (usually the 6s), who are weighted down so that the size of the likely voter sample matches the projected turnout for the year (apparently 55 percent this year). All other voters are discarded from the sample.

So if you have recently moved or are a new voter, and/or skipped the 2000 vote you will probably not be counted by Gallup.

[NightOwwl]

12. Thanks Mantra

I've heard their sample 1) doesn't include people who have never voted before and 2) they don't poll cell-phone users. Is that true, because that could really skew results also?

Welcome to DU :hi:

[Mantra]

22. Yes.

Pollsters are missing cell phone users. Charlie Cook recently said that this may be missing up to 18% of the population. Now, not all these people are Kerry voters, but if they lean towards Kerry (likely since these are younger voters, which polls have shown are strong for Kerry) that could skew the results by a point or two. In a race this tight, that could be big.

More importantly though, look through the Gallup LV questions and imagine yourself to be a new voter or someone who skipped the last election, or recently moved. You can see how easy it would be to be disqualifed from the LV model. That is why the LV numbers they get are all over the place. The RV number they get can't be dismissed outright, but pay no attention to the LV number they get.

I have read this site for a long time but only recently logged in because I got frustrated reading the polling threads here. Too many people don't realize how imperfect polling is, and how often they are wrong. If you want to read polls, you need to have some knowledge about they work and how to read them. Some of them are just junk. If you go back and look at the 2000 polling, you will see how off they can be. Bush +10 in Ohio..he wins by 3.5, or Bush +10 in NH and barely, barely wins. Almost all the National polls had Bush over Gore by 2 to 9 points..and we all know what happened.

So don't let these polls drive your emotions. Read Ruy's site. He spins in our favor, but he will help you to understand the polling better.

[tritsofme]

14. I don't see what's wrong with this LV model

The top 55% of the sample are considered likely voters, assuming 55% turnout in the election.

The only contention I have with it is that I think turnout will be closer to 60%.

[Mantra]

21. What's wrong with it

Is that it determines who is in that 55% by asking questions that would elimnate people for no poor reasons. I could be sure to vote, but if I moved since the last election I would answer no to question #3 and maybe #2. Or maybe I was disillusioned in 2000 or 2002 and didn't or wouldn't vote.
Or maybe I am a new voter.

Doesn't matter how high my interest is this year, they toss my vote.

That is why they get these huge differences between RV and LV numbers. That is why the LV number they produce fluctuates wildly. The RV number is not trash, but the LV number is.

No one is up by 8 points now, certainly not a President with approval rate as low as Bush has.

[William Seger]

23. Ah Ha! [Light bulb comes on]

The reason that Gallup consistently over-represents Republicans is that Republicans consistently LIE about these questions!

[rjbny62]

9. Gallup has no credibility - look at 2000 performance

This is what Gallup told us in 2000:
ALL LV

Oct17

Bush 48
Gore 42

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct18

Bush 49
Gore 39

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct19

Bush 50
Gore 40

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct20

Bush 51
Gore 40

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct21

Bush 50
Gore 41

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct22

Bush 46
Gore 44

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct23

Bush 45
Gore 46

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct 24

Bush 48
Gore 43

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct25

Bush 49
Gore 42

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct26

Bush 52
Gore 39

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct27

Bush 49
Gore 42

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct28

Bush 49
Gore 42

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct30

Bush 47
Gore 44

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Oct31

Bush 48
Gore 43

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Nov1

Bush 47
Gore 43

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Nov2

Bush 48
Gore 42

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Nov3

Bush 47
Gore 43

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Nov4

Bush 48
Gore 43

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Nov5

Bush 47
Gore 45

Note: Gore went on to win the popular vote.

Nov6 (last poll before the election)

Bush 48
Gore 46

[DuaneBidoux]

17. Watch Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania

That is where all the action will be, regardless of the popular vote.

[rocktivity]

11. It's the post-debate bounce meme!

This is the post-GOP convention bounce game all over again. They're trying to demoralize by repub-oversampling polls again and trying to turn Kerry's gay remark into a major scandal. If Bush's performance and Kerry's gay remark at the final debate had done THAT much damage to Kerry, don't you think it would have been reflected in the post-debate polls?

:headbang:
rocknation

[naufragus]

19. IT ISNT MARY

Its the Roe v Wade comment....

all the fundies freaked out...it has nothing to to do with mary

[cyr330]

16. Gimme a goddamn break!

Gallup has NO credibility--they've fucked up every poll they've ever tried to do and then claim it's a fact-- just like the Republicans do with their lies.

[neomonkey]

18. We must present this to the passive Dem voters

the ones who would see this and say "oh forget it, we have no hope"

And tell them there is hope.

There is only hope if we vote.

[BootinUp]

20. How long until the media starts questioning these results??

These results are not saying squat about the debate or the race.

[NightOwwl]

24. Bwah!

That was funny!

But seriously, they will do just the opposite. When Kerry wins and they are sitting in front of their teleprompters with eyes glazed and drool on their chinny-chin-chins, they will begin to question the validity of the election. Rove will feed them their talking points, and I can hear it already, "Dems must have perpetuated massive voter fraud because all the polls said Bush would win!!!"

[BootinUp]

27. I know

:7


But at the exact moment I typed it, I wasn't trying to be funny. These sobs are pissin me off, lol.

[NightOwwl]

28. Oh, I know you weren't trying to be funny.

This situation is deadly serious. :mad:

[Anarcho-Socialist]

25. I think this poll is shit as gallup have no track record

[tritsofme]

26. Yeah, who knows what they've been doing for the past 60 years...

While their pre-election polls have been eratic, I'd place my bets that their final poll will be well within the MoE.

[PeacefulWarrior]

29. Thats pretty scary

Especially the part about the liberal label (there is so much disinformation about what it means to be liberal). I hope it is wrong.