Teixeira's Donkey Rising: Gallup vs. Democracy Corps Polling Redux

[flpoljunkie]

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/

October 17, 2004

Gallup Vs. Democracy Corps Redux

By Alan Abramowitz

A new Gallup poll has George Bush leading John Kerry by 8 points among likely voters. A new Democracy Corps poll has Kerry leading Bush by 3 points among likely voters. Who should you believe? Hint: If you've been following my previous messages, you should know the answer to this question.

Remember, in 2000, Democracy Corps' final poll, released five days before the election, was right on the money. In fact, every D.C. poll in the final weeks of the 2000 campaign showed the race to be very, very close.

Remember, a Gallup poll released on October 26, 2000, less than two weeks before the election, had George Bush leading Al Gore by 13 points! Numerous Gallup polls during the final weeks of the 2000 campaign had Bush with ludicrously large leads.

And this time, Gallup has Bush ahead by 8 among likely voters but by 3 among registered voters. This is just too large a gap between registered and likely voters.

It looked for a while, after the first debate, like the Gallup Poll was getting reasonable again. Looks like they were just teasing us.

Posted by Ruy Teixeira at 03:06 PM

[autorank]

1. Thank you Ruy! n/t

[jefferson_dem]

2. Ruy's analyses are always reassuring.

Now more than ever.

[kaitykaity]

3. Yeah, my wingnut idiot sparring partner was crowing about

this Gallup thing to me this morning.

This was useful. Thanks

[Fed Up]

4. Shouldn't Gallup in 2000 have lost any credibility then?

Why weren't they mocked in the press for their bad-ass Gore poll?

Now they're doing the same stuff.

Once you blow an election prediction that should put you out of business. Can't believe these people at Gallup are still churning out their phony witches brew and the networks eat it up.

I for one don't believe their poll.

[leftchick]

7. I want to know how much gallup is paid....

to slant their results as a cover for chimpy* to steal elections.

[DemMother]

5. Thanks. I've been waiting for Ruy to weigh in with some sanity.

[swag]

6. Kick for those with their panties in a wad

[secular_warrior]

8. I trust Ruy - he knows what he's talking about.

Ruy is a Dem, but he is no cheerleader If he thought things were bad he would not be afraid to say so.