READ THIS - Voter dissatisfaction indicates it won't be close

[rndmprsn]

http://www.workingforchange.com/article.cfm?itemid=17880

ive been saying this over and over...huge turnout will be OUR November surpise!

corp polls suck...don't believe them.

--

Bogus polls mask landslide in the making

Conventional wisdom suggests this year's presidential election will be close. Practically every poll taken has the race within the margin of error.

At the risk of looking like a fool, I am prepared to respectfully disagree with conventional wisdom to offer the following contrarian perspective: The election will not be close.

Before you sit down to your computer to begin your "Williams, have you lost your mind?" rant, hear me out. I have reached this conclusion for two reasons. My first reason is shaped by what polls cannot see.

When I was in Philadelphia last week, the Philadelphia Inquirer ran a story in the local section that addressed increased voter registration. The final day of registration in Pennsylvania and New Jersey last week brought huge crowds to registration offices. As of September, Philadelphia had received 219,000 applications from either new voters or those who had moved or had been stricken from the rolls. With some 60,000 applications arriving on the final day, it is possible the city's volume this year could break the record of 293,000 applications set in the tension-filled mayoral race of 1983 between Wilson Goode and Frank Rizzo.

This trend of increased voter registration is replicated, in particular, in a majority of the battleground states.

According to the New York Times, voter registration campaigns in heavily Democratic areas have added tens of thousands of new voters to the rolls in the swing states of Ohio and Florida, a surge that far exceeds the efforts of Republicans in both states.

The analysis by the Times of county-by-county data shows that in Democratic areas of Ohio -- primarily low-income and minority neighborhoods -- new registrations since January have risen 250 percent over the same period in 2000.

In comparison, new registrations have increased just 25 percent in Republican areas. A similar pattern is apparent in Florida: In the strongest Democratic areas, the pace of new registration is 60 percent higher than in 2000, while it has risen just 12 percent in the heaviest Republican areas.

Project Vote says it has registered 147,000 new voters in Ohio. Americans Coming Together said that, together with allied groups that are part of America Votes, it had registered 300,000 new voters. In New Mexico, the Secretary of State's office reports that since May voter registration has jumped from approximately 958,000 to a little more than 1 million, possibly all new registrants.

Those younger than 30 who are increasingly concerned about a potential draft are also registering in increased numbers.

These new registrants are not considered in most polling. A growing number of young people use cell phones as their primary phone number. This further diminishes the possibility that their support for either candidate would be reflected in polling data. Thus, they are the great unknown in this election.

My second reason, if history is any barometer, is that when incumbent presidents seek re-election, it is a referendum on the previous four years. Since 1932, 11 incumbent presidents have sought re-election; with the possible exception of 1948 and 1976, none of the races has been close.

When we want to keep a president, we keep him; Roosevelt, Eisenhower, Johnson, Nixon, Reagan and Clinton are prime examples. Likewise, when we want him out, he's out: Hoover, Carter and Bush 41.

More and more this race is shaping up like 1980. That race remained close until the last few weeks, when voters found a comfort level with then-challenger Ronald Reagan that allowed them to oust President Carter.

It difficult for me to believe the race is as close as the polls indicate, especially when one considers that 56 percent of the electorate feels the country is headed in the wrong direction. Moreover, it has been 16 months since 50 percent felt we were headed in the right direction.

I don't believe we will be in court discussing hanging, dimpled or pregnant chads on Nov. 3.

[mzmolly]

1. " I don't believe we will be in court discussing hanging ... chads Nov 3"

I think your right. :hi:

[murielm99]

2. I am going to agree with you,

because I am tired of the gloom and doom. I know there are various ways * can steal this election. But I think turnout is the key to preventing theft.

Even here is deep blue Illinois, there are many new registrants. The last day to register here was Oct. 5. All the county clerks' offices were jammed with newly registering voters that day, if the news can be believed.

Many are new Democrats who want to vote for Obama and against *. Many of them are minorities.

We need to GOTV. And we will. :thumbsup:

[serryjw]

4. Another form of propaganda

Everyone wants to be with a winner. With the continuous drumbeat of Bushit ahead people will either beleive it or stay home

[Laelth]

3. Here's the raw data ...

that confirms your hypothesis that, historically, elections between and incumbent and a challenger are not close:

1996: Clinton (I) 49%, Dole 41%, Perot 8%: EC:379-159
1992: Clinton 43%, Bush (I) 37%, Perot 19%: EC:370-168
1984: Reagan (I) 59%, Mondale 41%: EC:525-13
1980: Reagan 51%, Carter (I) 41%, Anderson 7%: EC:489-49
1976: Carter 50%, Ford (I) 48%, McCarthy 1%: EC:297-240
1972: Nixon (I) 61%, McGovern 38%: EC:520-17
1964: Johnson (I) 61%, Goldwater 38%: EC:486-52
1956: Eisenhower (I) 57%, Stevenson 42%: EC:457-73
1948: Truman (I) 50%, Dewey 45%, Thurmond 2%: EC:303-189
1944: Roosevelt (I) 53%, Dewey 46%: EC:432-99
1940: Roosevelt (I) 55%, Willkie 45%: EC:449-82
1936: Roosevelt (I) 61%, Landon 37%, Lemke 2%: EC:523-8
1932: Roosevelt 57%, Hoover (I) 40%: EC:472-59

(I) = Incumbent

But, you know, landslide or not, if Kerry wins the real question is whether or not George W. Bush will surrender power. If you haven't read it yet, take a look at Ron Suskind's essay, "Without a Doubt," in the New York Times magazine. Go HERE if you don't want to give NYT your e-mail address. Suskind's essay is the second one in this thread.

:scared:

-Laelth

[pacalo]

9. I read Suskind's piece last night

& all I can say is, I hope that there are a lot more independent thinking church-goers than we realize who will use common sense on election day. This is scary stuff. It's truly the makings of a Stepford Society, of the churches running the State.

Even the freepers should be afraid of this.

[Laelth]

11. Any rationalist ...

any person who believes in facts, any person who believes in democracy (i.e. a factually-informed citizenry making decisions based upon logic and reason, based upon facts), ought to be frightened by what Suskind makes so very clear in that essay.

American democracy is in grave danger.

Please, folks, read the essay if you haven't done so yet!

:scared:

-Laelth

[onecitizen]

18. The article kept me awake

last night! Some very chilling stuff in it.

In nursing school some 30 years ago now, they taught us in psych class that people flip out over 3 things: religion, sex and/or money. I believe it. Our so-called president has a few loose screws (and he has his finger on the button) he should be impeached for being unstable. AND you can't let those around him who KNOW he's crazy off the hook. They should come forward for the sake of our country. But with them, patriotism goes just so far.

[dorktv]

15. That article totally depressed me. I am a Christian who

has read the bible and what Bush is doing is breaking my heart. He is not the new savior whatever he thinks and his behavior is going to destory this country unless he is stopped.

[Laelth]

16. I was reared Catholic ...

and I have a deep sense of ethics and responsibility to my fellow human beings and to life, itself. But there was a very, very good reason that our Founding Fathers tried to erect a barrier between church and state, and we're now seeing that reason unfolding before our eyes. Democracy can not effectively exist when the leader of our nation acts on blind faith, ignores facts, and is followed by a multitude of people who disdain facts, themselves, and follow the leader on the basis of their own blind faith. That's what we've got now.

I fear for the future of our democracy ... :scared:

-Laelth

[Media_Lies_Daily]

25. Suskind's article is thought-provoking to say the least...

...but quite a few of us were talking about Bush's focus on his faith prior to the 2000 election...and we were frightened then.

[Casandra]

5. United at last!

Looks like Bush is after all, a uniter! He has united the Dems, united leaders around the world and united people who care about this country, to defeat him! Thanks W!

[USA_1]

6. votes

There is no question in my mind that Democrats represent the majority of voters and that a Kerry-Edwards victory is likely, perhaps inevitable. But this is true only if an honest vote count is made.

We have all read numerous cases of people throwing away new voter registrations or of the mysterious disqualification of eligible voters. This could well represent tens of thousands of potential voters. We know of Diebold's criminality and the desire of its owners to elect Bush. HOW DO WE KNOW IF WE WILL HAVE AN HONEST VOTE COUNT???

[rock]

7. I've been of that opinion since early this year

I'm certainly NOT going to believe the media's analysis. And my own tells me that Kerry is going to win 60-40 or more. Hey after the election, let's compare our predictions!

[MidwestMomma]

8. I think the debates helped the voters find a comfort level with Kerry

I don't think you sound foolish at all. I agree with your analysis.

In addition, I find it reassuring that coming out of the primaries, all the talk was how unlikable Kerry was and how he wasn't qualified to be the commander-in-chief, blah, blah, blah

And now you have the administration admitting it's going to be close.

Six months ago, the opposition's conventional wisdom was Kerry didn't stand a chance. I think the very fact that they are now calling this a 'horse race' and 'a sprint to the finish' shows how weak their final positioning is going into the final 2 weeks.

I remember several months ago Bill Maher stated that the undecideds will break for Kerry in the last 2 weeks. I believe he will be shown to be correct, as will you.

Thanks for your post.
Maybe it's time to invest in some election night champagne!!!

[harpo]

10. that's what I've been saying as well...not even close

[pacalo]

12. I've felt this way for a long time, but it's encouraging to see the nos.!

I've always said: Whenever one has doubts about a Kerry win, take a look at the pictures of his campaign rallies to see the hordes of people who are hungry for a change, & at the scores of people who lined up at the voter registrars' offices across the country.

Thanks for the article. :)

[Laelth]

17. Hungry for change ...

I love this picture.



:smoke:

-Laelth

[Joe Chi Minh]

13. Why respectfully disagree?

Do you not question either their motives or their common sense, rndmprsn?

[rndmprsn]

14. ?

i'm not sure what you're talking about.

[Auntie Bush]

Bless You!

[Love Bug]

19. What he said about voter registration is also happening in Minnesota

http://www.startribune.com/stories/587/5037408.html

Fueled by the passions of the presidential race, voter-registration campaigns have added tens of thousands of Minnesotans to the election rolls from predominantly Democratic cities, nearly twice the new registrations gathered in recent months from heavily Republican areas of the state.

<snip>

"We think that will be the difference in 2004 in Minnesota," Minnesota DFL Party Chair Mike Erlandson said. "We've targeted traditionally low turnout areas of the state -- north Minneapolis, for example, which the Democrat will win with 80, 90 percent of the vote, but it doesn't always represent a large number of votes."

[acmavm]

20. Just found this article on WorkingForChange, was going to post it. Glad

you did. People need to understand that the corporate polls are crap, a ploy to discourage democrats. Although I had to laugh when John Zogby said today that Kerry was going to win. Called him the Strawman.

All I can say is GO DEMOCRATS!!!!

[Papa]

21. I hope you are right. On the radio this morning I heard that in Ohio

Over 700,000 new residents registered to vote and 75% of them were Democrats. I hope it will be a landslide for Kerry.

[Trahurn]

22. Have Also Been Thinking The Same Thing

When you Bush increasing Medicare and taking away overtime form so many millions of hourly wage workers just to name a couple reasons, it is why I never could justify in my mind the closess of the polls versus the real mindset of the electorate out there.
For about 3 weeks now I have had these thoughts jump into my head that were asking "what if these polls were all wrong"? It could be the voters out there are not nearly as satisfied with Bush as they pollsters would have us think.
I think you may very well be right. Wouldn't that be the most wonderful thing that could possibly happen. To see Bush so badly beaten he couldn't show his face in public. That and the image of him turning the whithouse over to Kerry are just about the finest images that can possibly come to mind.

[roseBudd]

23. I agree but I am in the innercity streets talking to the newly registered

and we must work on GOTV in the innercity and voter education. African Americans have inordinately high rates of ballot spoilage.

In addition many young African Americans told me they already voted when I asked if they were registered. I think this is because they associated the registration process with voting. Probably because registrants also asked who they would vote for.

If you are doing innercity canvassing consider using poor man's advertising ie. flyers on utility poles. I have been using the flyer below for 2 days now and bystanders are all asking for personal copies because they love it so much. It's rude but true.

Go to http://somnamblst.tripod.com to download the high res flyer files to print, photocopy and distribute.



paired with

[milkyway]

24. He's totally right. Not many gore voters will vote for bush but many bush

voters will change to Kerry. Then include these factors:

--not only a huge surge in Dem registrations, particularly African-Americans, but also in the percentage who turn out to vote

--strong turn-out of young first-time voters who will go Dem

--the undecideds always break strongly for the challenger in the last week, and will do so even stronger this year with high dissatisfaction with bush

--Nader will poll much weaker than 2000, while Bednarik siphons some votes from bush

Which all adds up to a LANDSLIDE for Kerry and the reality-based community!