Let's see...Kerry wins all three debates and bush* goes up in polls

[spanone]

The polls have never been more meaningless or manipulated than in this election. But the 'news' media has been quoting their results non-stop. My faith is in THE PEOPLE.

[ogradda]

1. yeah i noticed that too

i expect pollsters to call me any day to try and sell me a bridge.

[cosmicvortex20]

30. Theres technically no reason the masses have to care about the debates...

It would make sense for them too, but they dont have to. I wouldnt read any conspiracies in it quite yet.

[ogradda]

31. i dont think it's a conspiracy

i think the polls are just plain rigged. we had record amounts of people who watched the debates and now several polls show bush leading? horseshit. in so far as the "masses" who didn't watch the debates why would they show a jump for bush? grandma can't get her flu shot? another jump in gas or milk? little erwin was supposed to be out of the guard 6 months ago still chillin' in baghdad? i can continue but i gotta let the cat in :)

[cosmicvortex20]

33. Advertising could offset the debates pretty easy.

Most people are involuntarily subjected to advertising, but chose not to sit through the debates.

and yes, insisting the polls are rigged is tin foil hat conspiracy thinking.

[ogradda]

34. well a search of your threads show

you have quite a fixation on people thinking there's a conspiracy thing. as far as i'm concerned you can sniff out conspirators to your hearts content. neither you nor anybody else is in charge of my thinking processes. the only conspiracy i see is the one that says i shouldn't believe what is in front of my face.

[nadinbrzezinski]

2. This is an effort to supress the vote

pure and simple

He is gonna win, why bother? That is what they are hoping for

Welcome to Bush's Orwellian America... by the way have you had your ten minutes of hate for the day yet?

[tedzbear]

3. I hope you're right.

These polls DO scare me, I must admit.

[Barney Rocks]

4. me too.

I keep trying to ignore them--but when we are up I say how great they are--then things turn around and it is hard.

Aaaaargh!!! It is frustrating. I wanted to see our guy on top--the whole way!

But I fully believe that we are going to win--even if it is a big surprise to a lot of people. This may end up being the biggest upset since Truman beat Dewey.

[Cha]

11. They don't scare me cause I know

Kerry's going to win..and this will be an indictment against the media as well as the bush inc.

[cornermouse]

12. If it makes you feel better

This is considered strong Bush/Neo-con country and yet I see a surprising number of Kerry yard signs when I get off the major streets.

I don't think I believe the polls.

[pretzel4gore]

14. lying's easy

and the operators of the media have a reason: if kerry wins easily, they maybe held accountable for abetting bushinc....if anyone's scared, it's the mediawhores. Remember, bushinc either LIHOP or more likely MIHOP (remember, a 'terrorist attack exercise' was being held AT THE VERY TIME 911 occured! Bush not only knew, he NEEDED 911....please contact local media and hammer away this fact: BUSH KNEW! That makes the bush attack on iraq doubly evil, and 1100 dead soldiers....WOW! Them pigs at fox/cnn/nbc/cbs etc must be sick with fright, desperate! Even Bush is freaking out...

[tridim]

5. Bush up in the polls

is an impossibility, it follows no logic. The only conclusion that can be drawn is that the polls are flawed or manipulated.

[tedoll78]

6. The only true things that I'm watching are..

1) How does Kerry do with independents & moderates?
Bush won them by 3% in 2000. Kerry's leading by between 5 and 15% right now.

2) How does Kerry do with first-time voters?
According to Zogby, Kerry leads 57-36. And recent studies indicate that they could comprise up to 10% of Ohio's total ballots.

If these leads hold, and if we drive-out our base, I honestly don't see us losing.
I see us winning with about 293 electoral votes: the Gore states + New Hampshire + Ohio + Nevada + Colorado4.

[Touchdown]

19. Make that Colorado 9

The amendment doesn't look good right now, and I've been canvassing streets in Denver, and everybody is enthusiastic about voting. We got early voting starting Tomorrow.

Nader will not be much of a factor here, since he told the Greens (heavy in Boulder) to piss off, and they are coalitioning with Kerry supporters. We were hit heavy by Bush's layoffs, and the recovery is weak here.

and... I'm going to be driving our base to the polls all day on Nov 2.

[tedoll78]

20. Colorado 9 would be a dream come true.

With Gore states + Colorado + New Hampshire, Kerry wins with 273EVs. And that doesn't consider Nevada, Ohio, Florida, etc..

Thanks for the heads-up!

[Pepperbelly]

7. Kerry Saves Busload of Blind Orphans... Bush's Lead Widens!!!

-snip-

In poll taken by Harris, Gallup and USA Today thirty-five seconds after the rescue, 62% of likely voters found that Kerry's heroism was "too showy."

Republicans were quick to jump on the incident.

"First he doesn't save a busload of blind orphans, then he does," drolled Vice President Dick Cheney. "This guy can't make up his mind."

"A hero?" asked House Majority leader Tom DeLay. "Ask the kid whose dog he chose to leave behind."

A FOX News Opinion Dynamics Poll revealed the 89% of their viewers believe that there was a direct link between blind orphans drowning and Kerry.

[spanone]

9. But the reporting was 'fair and balanced' LOL

[wurzel]

8. I think there is a much more sinister explanation for polls

It makes manipulation of actual vote results much easier. If these polls can continually claim Bush is leading, it will make his "re-election" seem more legitimate.

[spanone]

10. NO NO NO he will not be re-selected. I don't believe that.

[cubsfan forever]

15. Good point!

My wife said EXACTLY the same thing this morning. We knew the corporate media would trumpet their push polls; they have been doing it from the start. And with this despicable "goal" in mind. Baby bush CANNOT win legally. But they can steal from us it if we don't vote.

Professor 2

[DemocracyInaction]

13. Let me throw this out--and you can kill me at will

I often see people here dragging out the old 2000 Bush-Gore polls and proudly showing how they were showing Gore washed up just days before and bingo he won. I think you missed the whole point of those polls and I think it may be what is going on now. In the end, the people are coming home to the incumbent and in Gore's case he was the next best thing to "the incumbent" in that race----he was the VP for 8 years and his name was a household name. I think now the voters are finally paying a little bit of attention because the election is around the corner and I think you are seeing the start of the "coming home" for the boy they know. I knew it would happen but prayed by this time Kerry would be killing him in the polls and, thus, his numbers would still pale in comparison. If you noticed in so many polls a whole shit pileof people will piss on Bush for "approval rating" etc. and then turn around and say they will vote for him. That's why none of this seems to you to make sense after the debates. The debates have no impact on this stupid phenom that happens all the time.

[diplomats]

16. I'm not sure that's happening

If you throw out Gallup's LV sample, they have Bush up 3 among RVs. Democracy Corps has Kerry up 3 among LVs, and Zogby had Kerry up 2 yesterday, which is why Bush's lead dropped from 4 to 2.

[pretzel4gore]

17. the media is known to be busheviks, and bush=liar

the old patterns do not apply anymore.....bush is at best a failed hero to the foolish people who supported him, and most people don't support him...

[MatrixEscape]

23. The old Pravada returns ... REBORN! Ministry of Truth! n/t

[cubsfan forever]

18. What about the millions of first time voters

who are not involved in these "polls?" No, we will not do anything to you, but you are wrong. Different time, different election, and a PISSED OFF and UNITED Democratic party.

Professor 2

[DemocracyInaction]

21. cubsfan---that IS the one thing I keep in the back of my mind and

hope there are enough pissed off and young voters in those key states to do this. I would love to see state by state in the battleground states what the split in new registration is because some of those states are quite conservative and have had the churchs out registering voters. I hope they are that 2 to 1 split that seems to be nationwide or they will just cancel each other out. By the way, could I interest you in a Boston team who's socks are red (what the hell is going on with these idiots----can't take much more).

[Awsi Dooger]

22. A small segment is coming home to the only two things Bush has

Fear and likeability. The former is a constant, the latter showed up at the very end of the third debate, and I'm convinced it is responsible for the small Bush surge.

I've posted this many times, beginning Wednesday night about two hours after the debate, when many DUers were convinced Kerry would take a commanding lead in the polls: my (generally apolotical) debate watching group gave a shockingly positive reponse to Bush following the debate. They loved his closing statement and especially the answer to the final question about strong women in his life. One woman said it was the first time she had seen evidence of the likeability Bush displayed throughout the debates in 2000.

Even people who thought Kerry won the debate were saying positive things about Bush, for the first time in all three debates. My debate watching group, 19 total this year, ALWAYS predicts the mood and shift of the nation better than cable TV morons.

Bush gained slightly in soft support in the third debate, mostly women. Same thing happened with the jingoistic final 15 minutes of Bush's convention speech. Plenty of time for Kerry to reverse it, with the right tactics and emphasis.

[spanone]

24. I blame the media for making Mary Cheney the entire 3rd debate

Like most of 'America Media' they go for the titilation instead of the honest to God story. BUSH FUCKING LIED ABOUT OSAMA AND THEY HAVE IGNORED IT. FLAT OUT.

[Awsi Dooger]

29. Agreed, but I don't think that acounts for Bush's gains since Wednesday

There are a greater percentage of persuadable/undecideds than DUers want to concede. They are generally apolotical, don't focus as much on specific issues, and much more likely to be influenced by likeability and personality factors.

Many DUers were touting polls that showed Kerry came off as more likeable in the first two debates. I have not seen any recent polls regarding likeability, but strictly based on my debate watching group I'm positive those numbers will tilt toward Bush.

Bob Schieffer's damn final question allowed Bush to show a phonyass side of himself that many voters gush over, as impossibly assinine as that may be. I see it in my home during every debate cycle, personality and warmth trumping substance.

Notice that Bush's numbers have gone up since the debate, with very little if any drop in Kerry support. Kerry is supposedly a good closer and that should include post debates, if it's legit. His camp has had an entire weekend+ to evaluate the race as it stands now, and formulate a strategy. We need something to keep Bush's base poll number at 48% or lower.

[IChing]

25. Fasten Your Seat Belts, Turbulent Polls Ahead

asten your seat belts and make sure that your tray tables and seat backs are in their fully upright and locked positions. The 2004 presidential campaign is coming in for a landing and it's going to be a bumpy ride. You're going to see some strange poll results over the next two weeks and the most important thing to keep in mind is that if a poll's results don't make sense--if they seem to be out of line with most other polls or if they show a big difference between registered voters and likely voters--don't believe them.


The final Zogby tracking poll in California showed Al Gore with a razor thin 1 point lead over George Bush. Maybe that's why Bush ran off to California during the final few days of the campaign. Gore won the state by 12 points.

In Delaware, which was considered a swing state by many analysts in 2000, a late Mason-Dixon Poll had Bush leading Gore by 4 points. Gore won the state by 13.

In Illinois, which many pundits did not consider safe for Al Gore either, a Mason-Dixon Poll had Gore with only a 3 point lead and a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll had Bush with a 3 point lead. Gore carried the state by 12.

In Michigan almost all of the polls showed Al Gore with the lead. But a Market Research Group Poll completed on October 26 had Bush ahead by 6. Gore carried the state by 5. Market Research Group was a Republican polling organization and this year we're seeing a lot more of those Republican polls, a lot of them from an outfit called Strategic Vision. Take their results with a very large grain of salt.

In New Jersey, three late polls, two by Quinnipiac University and one by the Gannett newspapers, all showed Al Gore with a fairly narrow lead--ranging from 5 to 8 points. Gore carried the state by 16. This year we're again seeing some state polls showing that New Jersey is close. We'll see if they're any more accurate this time than they were four years ago.

In Ohio, two late polls, one by the University of Cincinnatti and one by The Columbus Dispatch, gave George Bush a 10 point lead over Al Gore. On Election Day, Bush's margin was only 4 points.

Finally, in Wisconsin, a swing state in 2000 and in 2004, the final Zogby tracking poll and a late poll by Market Shares had Bush ahead of Gore by 6 and 5 points respectively. Al Gore carried the state by less than 1 percentage point.

[Awsi Dooger]

32. Notice you are highlighting state polls, always the most unreliable

That's why midterms are so unpredictable until the final weekend. Every poll in a midterm is a state poll. Not until you get a sense of the electorate breaking toward one party or another do the midterms take shape.

Zogby blew one state poll after another in 2000 and 2002. The offshore betting outfits that allow political wagering now ignore late and unusual state polls almost completely. A few years ago I could wait until an obviously flawed state poll, including many of the ones you cited, then pounce on a great statewide bet at dramatically improved odds.

State polls are often poorly funded, handled by local groups or media, and don't adequately reflect the political balance of the state. The other day, for example, I was looking at the partisan makeup of Alaska. The southeastern section of the state favors Democrat Knowles in the senate race by a net 20%, while Fairbanks is 18% net toward Republican Murkowski. Obviously an ignorant or poorly weighted state poll will skew the forecast, similar to the Gallup idiocy sampling more Republicans than Democrats nationwide.

I'm very concerned DUers are overemphasizing state polls this year, as opposed to national. These positive state polls we're quoting now will inevitably mirror the mood of the nation. State polls lag. IF Bush has gained a small lead, it will show up in state polls in a few days.

This race is still about preference. There are more persuadable longtime voters than our potential net advantage among new voters. The ball is in Kerry's court to win them back.

[Cha]

26. WHAT'S WRONG WITH THESE "WOMEN"?

Why do they want an incompentent boob as their leader(sic)?

[Lerkfish]

27. the polls are manipulated: logical reason why...

1. the Bush base is already voting Bush=no change
2. the Kerry base is already voting Kerry=no change
3. New registrations are predominantly Kerry
4. The undecideds, by ALL measures, and every poll are choosing Kerry over Bush. But even if they werent, and were even...

There is no statistical way his numbers could INCREASE after 3 abysmal debate performances.

Someone is lying.

[undercover_brother]

28. Republicans don't run on issues. They run on character assasination

[helpisontheway]

35. It looks like Kerry is going back to his position

prior to the debates. :-( I'm going to keep volunteering but I have to start preparing myself for a possible loss because things are not looking good. :-(

[andym]

36. The people are being manipulated

This post is off the mark. I think the polls are reflecting that people are being manipulated by the media. Post-debate coverage has been awful for Kerry.

Also, many people decide who to support regardless of evidence.
Look at this article about Iowa voters:
http://www.theday.com/eng/web/news/re.aspx?re=5325616A-6793-4009-8606-85FAE9EF5273
“Kerry's a far better debater, but I'm not voting for a debater,” said Mike Kembin, a Republican and an engineer..."

Also understand the purpose of the debates for Kerry. Kerry's goal was to introduce himself to the nation (believe it or not) while people are paying attention. He did a good job breaking the flip-flop stereotype that he was being tagged with, but he needed to do more. He needed to capture the imagination of the non-partisan voter. We won't know until election day whether he succeeded.

[robbedvoter]

37. W's spit goober worked miracles! Voters can't resist the attraction!

Are people going to finally dismiss polls the way we learned there was no "Libera'" or "objective" media? After this election - if GOP botches the stealing - they will!

[wildeyed]

38. It is nice when Kerry is up in the polls.

But I gotta tell ya, I work harder when Kerry is a few points down. I get anxious and the only thing that alleviates the anxiety is getting voters registered, and now that the registration period is over, turning them out at the polls. So if RoveCo think that we will get discouraged and go home just 'cause things aren't easy, he is so very wrong.

I think that the polls will be very close right up to the end. There will be no relief from the anxiety. And in the end, victory will all come down to turn out. Which side can deliver the voters to the polls. The pubs are more organized, but there are more of us than there are of them.

So don't fret, don't feel bad. But do take a day or two off from work and volunteer to drive voters to the polls. Or phone bank. Or canvass. This is how we win.