This very well could be another 1948, as far as polls are concerned.

[terrya]

I truly think that a lot of pollsters are going to have egg on their faces. There's just something...wrong...about Bush "leading"....while there's such dissatisfaction out there...under 50% approval ratings? HUGE crowds for Kerry/Edwards rallies...and Bush is LEADING?? Something just doesn't jibe here. Am I the only one to pick up on this?

[naufragus]

1. There were 4 candidates in 48

[endnote]

2. Very simple: their samples are too smanll and not random at all.

Whether this is intentional or not is open to speculation.

[Kierkegaard]

3. Personally, it doesn't pass the smell test.

What's happening in the polls just doesn't reflect what's happening on the ground.

[renegade000]

7. "smell test"?

you just heard my opponent say we must pass a "smell test"...i, unlike my opponent, will never cede my statistics to olfactory bodies...

[Kierkegaard]

10. If it smells like shit, why take the chance that it isn't?

Notice I didn't say 'International' smell test.

:7

[quinnox]

4. Put it this way - if Kerry wins by a landslide I won't be totally shocked

I think polls are missing many factors that could be crucial.

[AndyTiedye]

5. In 1948, they didn't have Diebold

If they can get the pollsters to say Boosh is ahead,
they can get away with stealing the election again.

They'll just make it as if all our newly-registered voters
never existed. They've already done to thousands of them,
by tearing up their registration forms, and Diebold can
do the rest.

We have to stop them.

http://www.verifiedvoting.org

[DemBones DemBones]

6. Yes, and this should be a MAJOR concern for everyone.

:scared: :mad:

[Psst_Im_Not_Here]

8. Yep smells fishy

You might want to read Arianna Huffington's piece on the polls. It's an interesting read.

Bogus Polls: Meaningless Farce Or Looming Tragedy?

editted for spelling

[Awsi Dooger]

9. Bush doesn't have a mustache

Unfortunately. We would have zero to worry about otherwise.

Don't laugh. That was a significant factor in 1948, although almost never mentioned. Dewey had a mustache. Women do not prefer mustaches, even if subconsciously, and are much less likely to vote for men with mustaches in state and national races. Jimmy The Greek Snyder undestood that, and made a huge wager on Truman specifically for that reason. His fortune and reputation stemmed from that call.

It has continued to hold up. In 2002, none of the major statewide nominees with mustaches came close to their final poll numbers -- Strickland in Colorado, Kirk in Texas, the GOP gov nominee in Wyoming, the GOP gov nominee in Kansas. Those four all lost. I posted a mustache thread after the midterms and several Coloradoans replied it was something they had speculated or heard prior to the election, that Strickland would win minus the damn mustache.

I'll make a safe prediction for 2006: Corzine in New Jersey will not come close to his final poll standing, with all that facial hair. He could literally save millions with the use of a 10 cent Bic razor.

Damn, no good mustache races this year to take advantage of ($), at least that I've seen. Only the GOP gov incumbent in North Dakota, and that's an obscure lopsided race.

[robo]

11. New voters will tell the tail

Ohio and Fla. have so many new voters that the polls can get to who plan to vote for Kerry that there numbers and way out of wack . It will only be on Nov 2 that we will know. This just me but I think Kerry will win