2000 flip flop - Could Kerry win the EC and lose the popular vote?

[DemFromMem]

If one believed the polls (granted, a somewhat dubious proposition), it seems like Kerry could very well win the electoral college with few overall votes than Bush.

The battleground polls seem to be showing Kerry up from a few points (Rasmussen) to as many as ten (Washington Post/ABC). Yet Kerry is dead even or behind in many of the national polls.

Bush is dramatically ahead in a number of states whereas Kerry is closer, but comfortably ahead, in his safe states.

Interestingly, a few days before the 2000 election, I recall the suggestion that Gore was doing better in the electoral college than Bush and might be in this same position.

[NMDemDist2]

1. poetic justice yes? n/t

[tritsofme]

2. I don't see it is as very likely, however a 2000 redux is possible

Its much more likely that Kerry would rack up huge victories in CA NY and IL and bolster his popular vote total, as opposed the only big state bush will win big in is Texas.

Blowing out Utah just doesn't move your popular vote total up very far.

While it would be beautiful poetic justice, I just don't see it happening.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. The E C Vote Usually But Not Always Follows The Popular Vote...

Even in 00 Gore carried it by only .05%

In the disputed Tilden-Hayes election in 1876 I think Tilden won the pop vote by 3% while "losing" the Electoral College vote...

It is mathematically possible but a highly unlikely outcome...

[TheDonkey]

4. Doubtful, but bush doing it again is worrisome

[Nicholas_J]

5. Oddly enough

It sems this is becoming more and more possible. With recent polls showing Kerry with good leads in Ohio and Pennsylvania. and two most recent polls showing him leading in Florida, he could easily win the electoral college with the states he currently holds and only two of the states above.

In addition Kerry is leading in several of the swing states that Bush won in 2000 and is tied with Bush in several states that Bush won in 2000, like Nevada. Bush won Colorado handily in 2000, but polls show this state now too close to call, and if it ends up that they must split the electoral votes in that State it would be another loss for Bush that would allow this scenario to occur.

[argyl]

6. Very possible. It could wind up at the SCOTUS and we know how that vote

would go, regardless that their ruling would be at odds with the results they handed down in 2000.One thing that bothered me about that ruling(aside from it putting Smirk in the White House)was their declaration that it was a one time only result and set no precedent.

I believe that was a ruling unique in the Supreme Court's history.Every ruling the SCOTUS makes sets precedent and therefore redefines the law, so why was this one so different? Maybe they knew that in 2004 they would again be required to gift wrap the presidency for Bush and did not want to be constrained by the ruling made in 2000. I wouldn't put anything past this gang.

[pa28]

7. Bush will then try to overturn states for an EV win. Link

See this item.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=908579

[0rganism]

8. More likely: polls are under-counting Kerry's popular vote

Some of those "safe GOP" states are going to be much closer than the polls suggest. This is going to be the year of the Unlikely Voter.

Kerry will pull a Gore, and get a slight majority in popular votes. He may also win the EC. However, I suspect at least one state's EVs will be decided in the courts, rather than the ballot boxes.