Latest Polls indicate Kerry to win election by around 24 electoral votes

[Nicholas_J]

(17.10.2004)
Although three of the latest polls show President Bush and Senator
John Kerry in a statistical tie and a fourth has Bush leading by 6 points,
we believe the general trend indicates a victory for Kerry.
In a Washington Post poll, Bush leads Kerry by 50 to 47 percent,
within a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

A Reuters/Zogby International poll has Bush ahead of Kerry by 46 to 44
percent, within a 2.9 percentage point error margin.
Another poll by Time Magazine also has Bush leading Kerry by 48 to 46 percent.
The margin of error is 4 percentage points. In a fourth poll by Newsweek, the
support for Bush was 50 percent, compared to Kerry's 44 percent.
This too had a margin of error of 4 percentage points. Most of the recent polls have
indicated a close race, with the margin of error making it too close to call.

According to a review of state polls by Bloomberg News, Bush is ahead
in 21 states with 178 electoral votes. Kerry leads in 11 with a
potential 164 electoral votes. But in 18 other states, with 196 electoral
votes available, recent polls indicate that they are within the
margin of error

Each candidate must gain at least 270 electoral votes for victory and
with only a 14 vote difference between Bush and Kerry in the
states that polls show are not currently tied, the result rests on the
battleground states. Whilst both candidates will offer something of interest in these
finely balanced battleground states, we believe that Kerry will have the edge
in more than half of them.

Interestingly enough, the Washington Post claims that Kerry
is leading by 53 percent to 43 percent in 13 of these states and
this would be more than enough to gain victory (by a much larger
margin than we predict).



http://www.profindpages.com/news/2004/10/17/MN444.htm

Interesting predictions out of Moscow.