Interview With Pollster John Zogby

[unfrigginreal]

Next US chief has to heal the meanness
By Pranay Gupte

snip

The increasingly sharpening divisions are over ideology - conservative versus liberal - and over the very core values of the American system, which has long prided itself on tolerance and magnanimity.

'Each side feels that if the other wins, it would be the end of the Republic,' Mr Zogby told The Straits Times during an overnight visit to Singapore sponsored by Reuters.

snip

'Polling can be uncertain only if you rely on statistics alone,' is Mr Zogby's riposte. 'That's why an effective pollster has to rely on culture, history and sociology. I repeat, polling is the study of human behaviour, not simply a sampling of people's preferences.'

That may well explain his success. His big test will come on Nov 2. In Singapore last Friday, he flatly predicted that Mr Kerry would become the 44th President of the United States.

http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/commentary/story/0,4386,278709,00.html

[mzmolly]

1. Oh how I love that prediction!

:toast:

[Nicholas_J]

2. Zogby came close to saying this on his CNN interview

about ten days ago. He said right now if all things remain the same, the election is Kerry;s to lose amd that he is likely to win.

[Longhorn]

3. I really like the conclusion!

'Polling can be uncertain only if you rely on statistics alone,' is Mr Zogby's riposte. 'That's why an effective pollster has to rely on culture, history and sociology. I repeat, polling is the study of human behaviour, not simply a sampling of people's preferences.'

That may well explain his success. His big test will come on Nov 2. In Singapore last Friday, he flatly predicted that Mr Kerry would become the 44th President of the United States.

[ever_green]

4. Sounds good to me!

Hope he's right on this one!

[SensibleCenterist]

5. Survey form

He has an online survey on his site. If you fill it out you can get his most recent reports.

Kerry over Bush 278 to 207 is the current poll!

Kerry is doing better in battleground states than most mainstream media polls are showing now.

[fearnobush]

6. Tin Man - up by 9 pts.

snip

Assessing the state of battle, he said 93 per cent of voters who profess no affiliation to the Republican or Democrat camp are likely to go out and vote on Nov 2.

Their numbers - about seven million - could tip the scales in a tight race. Going by the Tin Man/Scarecrow contest, Mr Kerry is ahead by 9 percentage points. So over the next three weeks, said Mr Zogby, the battle will be less over issues and more on voter turnout.

While Mr Kerry would want the 'undecideds' to vote, Mr Bush would want the very opposite.


<http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/news/story/0,4386,278580,00.html?>

[Cha]

7. Kerry can Heal if anyone can..

It's not gonna be bush.

[mvd]

8. I think he's right!

:-)

[LiberalPersona]

9. Interesting

Multiple people have predicted a landslide win for Kerry, many hints point to that, excluding the polls. Now Zogby outright predicts a Kerry win. Every new piece of information enhances my confidence. And it's already way up there. I don't think Bush stands a chance. I still see these idiots predicting a Bush landslide though, with between 290 and 320 EVs, which I know is total Bushit.