What's the situation in Nebraska?

[mconvente]

Electoral votes are split their by district. Two votes go to the popular vote winner total, but if the opposing candidate wins a district he gets that district's vote. I saw here a few days ago that Kerry could pick up one vote in a district. What's the situation near Omaha (probably a Dem town since it's a urban place) and what about the area surrounding the University of Nebraska - college kids should go Dem). Any news on this? One vote could help.

[existentialist]

1. don't know, but

the only polls I've seen are (1) very old, and (2) show Bush winning Nebraska by double digits.

However, I know that one Republican Senator, and one Republican Congressman from Nebraska have recently criticized the Bush administration in very harsh terms (Kerry quoted the Senator in the Debates, and the Congressman was recent cited in the Doonesbury "honest voices" series).

Also, it appears that there is at least some hope in those parts in the congressional races--so who knows?

[pdurod1]

2. My perception

I personally know of at least 5 registered repubs that are voting for Kerry. I'm seeing a 10:1 ratio KE vs BC in yard signs. I live a couple miles north of the University (Omaha) --Benson/Country Club. I do deliveries mostly in W Omaha (IT job outsourced). I'm seeing the same except in the really wealthy hoods --that's where the tax cuts went --go figure. I'm hearing that a lot of college kids are opting for higher degrees because of the slim opportunies in the current labor market.

[JohnnyCougar]

3. Welcome to DU, pdurod1!!

Cheers :toast:

[prairie populist]

4. Lincoln will go to Kerry

A University of Nebraska poll released last week showed Lincoln going in Kerry's favor something like 70 percent to 30 percent, but Lincoln is by far the state's most liberal demographic area - not Omaha. I am pleased to hear the positive feedback from the poster from Omaha. Even out here in the hinterlands of western Nebraska there are pockets of extreme anger toward Bush/Cheney.

In my own extended family, roughly a dozen who voted for either Bush or Nader in 2000 are voting for Kerry in 04; I don't know of anyone who will be abandoning their 2000 Dem vote in 04.

The state of Nebraska will likely go Bush again, though by a smaller margin, as will the Omaha congressional district and the outstate Nebraska congressional district (basically everything outside of the Lincoln and Omaha areas)

The Lincoln congressional district, however, which also includes metro areas and small towns surrounding Lincoln and those north and south of Omaha, could possibly go Kerry. This would give Kerry 1 of Nebraska's 5 electoral college votes. Not a lot, but every little bit counts.

[newyawker99]

7. Hi prairie populist!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[RoyGBiv]

5. Omaha, NE

Omaha is essentially its own congressional district, but it is highly unlikely it will go to Kerry. The idea that urban areas are naturally Democratic is quite simply a myth. That model works in some places, such as parts of New England, but not everwhere, certainly not in the plains states.

The congressional district that includes Lincoln has a better chance of turning for Kerry, but it is still very much a longshot. Lincoln itself is more liberal -- which isn't saying much in NE -- but the district includes a lot of heavily conservative, although low population areas.

In 2000, Douglas County, which includes most of Omaha, Shrub took 55% of the vote. Lancaster County, where Lincoln is located, gave less support to Shrub, him winning that county with 51%. Nader got almost 6% there, and Gore got 41%.

[pdurod1]

6. Re: Omaha, NE

I rely on that sliver of coherent visible part of the electromagnetic spectrum being truthful too. Hope is on the way. Thanks Roy!

[sherilocks]

8. Arm Chair opinion from Florida

I have more than a few relatives in Lincoln. So I've been there often. There are some old entrenched conservatives, if they are still alive, collecting social security, but still hating FDR for initiating it. Ben Nelson, a very conservative Democrat, did get elected. Many of the spawn of the old time conservatives, who react by becoming liberals, have moved to other states. BUT, I cannot imagine any real Nebraska conservative approving of *'s fiscal policies. So I'm saying, given the student population and professors at the unversity, the conservative population being as lukewarm as *'s IQ, and the make-up of the general population, that Kerry will take the district by a hair.

[dolstein]

9. Same as in Idaho, Wyoming, the Dakotas and Utah

Bush will win by at least as great a margin in Nebraska as Kerry will win by in New York. Sorry, Nebraska isn't even close.

[HuskerDem]

11. Where in Nebraska do you live?

[HuskerDem]

10. Out here in Central Nebraska I've seen dozens of Kerry signs and

bumper stickers and a grand total of 2 stickers for blinky - no signs at all. I've never seen LESS enthusiasm for a republican candidate previously in this area. If gives me the heart to keep fighting.