Kerry = Closer

[Barney Rocks]

I have been thinking a lot about how Kerry is a great closer and I am really excited about how we are going to see him come from behind to soar to victory over the next two weeks.

I was just wondering if anyone who remembers the details of the primaries can tell me at what point Kerry drew ahead? What about in the race with Weld? Was Kerry behind with two weeks to go? At what point does he draw ahead?

It feels like we are waiting until the very last moment to move ahead--but I guess that is what a closer does?

[sandnsea]

1. He was always behind

In the national polls. The only poll that had him ahead was the Des Moines Register, just days before the Iowa caucuses. He likes to run from behind. The last week to ten days was a whirlwind, slamming news articles, endorsement after endorsement, you just have to be ready when he is. And we won with 36% when even the Iowa paper only had him ahead at 26%. It's a nail-biter being a Kerry supporter, that's for sure.

[grace0418]

2. I read that and thought "closer to what?"

But you meant "clo-zer" not "clo-sir"

I personally think it's better that Kerry doesn't appear to open up a big lead in the polls. It would be all the more impetus for Rove to pull out a big whopper October surprise. Let 'em think we're not winning, maybe they'll get lazy.

[GRLMGC]

7. Yes

I was thinking the exact same thing

[liberalpragmatist]

3. Iowa was pretty 11th Hour

Looking back through the archives of a blog that I like to go to (http://moderateleft.blogspot.com) Kerry was still at 15% in Iowa on January 13. So it was just about 2 weeks. That being said, there was anecdotal evidence and internal polling that said that Iowa was volatile and that Kerry's support was climbing - as many articles from early January were beginning to alude to. Still, virtually EVERYBODY (pundits, reputable posters, political scientists and academics, Iowans, political junkies, the newsmedia... EVERYONE) dismissed it. At most, they said it would put him in 2nd, but probably just a close third and he might fight on a little bit but would just delay the inevitable crushing by Dean.

So on January 13 he was still at 15% in Iowa, in 3rd, behind Gephardt at 23 nad Dean at 26. A day later he had suddenly surged to 21%, which most dismissed as an outlier. But on Thursday he climbed to a 22% lead over Dean and Gephardt, both at 21%. Friday, Jan. 16 he had jumped to 24%, with Dean and Gephardt at 19%.

It was quite a surge looking back.

[sir_captain]

4. He was way behind Weld

going into their first debate, and ended up winning by 12 points.

[shraby]

5. I remember watching the

returns coming into cnn and they were astounded that Kerry won. Couldn't figure it out cause they were sure it would be Dean. They were so flabbergasted they were almost speechless..especially Judy Woodruff.

[drumwolf]

8. from what I can gather

EVERYONE had pretty much taken it for granted that Dean was going to be the Dem candidate challenging Bush this fall.... until Kerry won the Iowa primary. I know I was completely stunned when Kerry won Iowa.

[Carla in Ca]

6. So, I'm curious, was there anything specific

that turned the tide? That was a big margin to win by.

[indyjones1938]

9. nt

[Carla in Ca]

11. Amazing...and it is the same thing a lot of

people are seeing now, isn't it? He IS presidential.
It will get him to the WH this time.
Thanks for the insight.

[sir_captain]

10. Yeah

Weld trotted out a picture of the widow of a police officer and asked Kerry why he didn't support the death penalty for a cop-killer, and Kerry nailed the answer so hard that he essentially won the election on the spot--it was impressive to say the least. I don't remember the exact quote but just do a search on google and you'll come up with it...

[Carla in Ca]

12. Got it.

I know something about killing. I don't like killing. And I don't think a state honors life by turning around and sanctioning killing. Now, that's just a personal belief that I have.



KERRY IN A LANDSLIDE!!!!

[sir_captain]

13. Yep, there you go

Game over

[Carla in Ca]

14. And it proves to the rest of us

that he has always been this same man of passion, common sense and wisdom that we see now.