Bookmark this: Zogby will have Kerry leading 47-44 on Monday

[TruthIsAll]

Date	bush	kerry	bush	kerry	bush	kerry
Oct	zogby	zogby	day	day	3dMA	3dMA
6	46	44	46	44	46.00	44.00
7	46	45	46	46	46.00	45.00
8	45	46	43	48	45.00	46.00
9	45	46	46	44	45.00	46.00
10	44	47	43	49	44.00	47.00
11	45.2	44.6	46.6	40.8	45.20	44.60
12	45.3	44.8	46.3	44.6	45.30	44.80
13	46	45	45.1	49.6	46.00	45.00
14	48	44	52.6	37.8	48.00	44.00
15	48	44	46.3	44.6	48.00	44.00
16	46	44	39.1	49.6	46.00	44.00
17	44.13	47.07	47	47	44.13	47.07

[Guaranteed]

1. Any reason why?

Is this simply a trend?

[Mojambo]

2. Okay,

But if you're wrong we'll have to string you up.

I'm just saying...
:D

[knowbody0]

3. i've been zogbied 4 times

[BUSHOUT]

4. I don't understand. What is your source for this. Are you guessing?

?

[TruthIsAll]

6. No source. Just an educated guess. Having fun.

BTW, I'm being conservative here.

[Awsi Dooger]

10. Yes, it could be higher

If Kerry has another big day on Monday, it could easily be a 4 or 5 point lead.

Of course, once that Saturday landslide is dumped on Tuesday, the numbers could move toward even and DUers will freak out.

[Awsi Dooger]

5. Check out the middle numbers and you can see what TIA sees

The day-to-day numbers. Kerry had a huge Saturday, +10.5. Once those Bush edges from the 11th thru 14th, especially 14th, are eliminated, Kerry regains the lead.

[Tesibria]

7. done... looking at numbers myself

tho -- that'd be a great big huge one day jump ... we'll see :)

i've been looking at the cross-tab figures, which ... are interesting, but I'm not finding many consistent trends. I did figure out something that was greatly bothering me. How can it be that such a large number "disapprove" of Bush's job performance, and yet his numbers stay as high as they are? Well -- I figured out that they're combining "excellent" and "good" as "APPROVE" -- and combining "fair" and "poor" as "DISAPPROVE" -- but many people who may think that he's only doing a "fair" job will still vote for him.

One mystery solved ... for better or worse ...

[featherman]

8. why the weird outlier in Saturday results?

Massive undecided? Or is Nader surging (ha ha)?

[Tesibria]

9. PS: Zogby predicted KERRY WIN on Friday

see http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x912711


(I STILL don't get why so many people here attack him when the numbers are not great on a day -- he seems to be the best one out there -- and I've thot that for quite a while.)

[in_cog_ni_to]

15. He predicted that on FRIDAY?

And we didn't here ONE damn word about that prediction over the weekend, did we? Of course not. The media has got to go after Kerry is elected! :grr:

[mahina]

11. Thank you Truth

I love what you do for this community, thank you so very much.

[Awsi Dooger]

12. Ha! How will CNN and MSNBC rationalize two polls so far apart?

On the same day. If TIA is correct about Zogby, and it looks probable, there might be a 6 to 12 point disparity in the margins between Gallup and Zogby.

Should be Judy Woodruff at her finest.

[DemBones DemBones]

14. Woodruff will do a Scott Peterson story, or a Michael Jackson

story. And all the media will be missing the hell out of the Kobe Bryant case.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. There Have Been Fifteen Point Discrepancies...

When CNN had it it 52-39 Bush in late October of 00 Zogby had it 45-43 Gore...

Go figure...

[DemBones DemBones]

13. Wait 'til senior citizens figure out that it's ultimately Bush* who is at

fault in the flu vaccine shortage.

Bush* not paying attentions to warnings AGAIN.

I predict many more than 3,000 will die as a result of the flu vaccine shortage.


Anyone know what day the Kerry campaign started airing the ads about this? If so, when do we expect the first big jump in the polls reflecting the ad's impact?

[quaker bill]

17. Your math must be off

it's 45 to 45.

[TruthIsAll]

18. The math is correct. Here are some other possibilities...

1. My forecast for Sunday polling (47-47) was off.

2. The Zogby results are rounded off to the nearest integer. This is a source of computational error.

For example, say the 3-day poll averages were Kerry 45.4 and Bush 45.6. Zogby would show it as 46-45 Bush. I need Zogby's numbers to the nearest .1 in order to more accurately derive the daily poll numbers.

3. Zogby may not be weighting his 3-day samples equally (arithmentic averaging). He may be assigning a higher weight to the most recent day's polling. For example, his formula may be

3-day Poll = (3*latest day polling +2*previous day + 1* earliest day)/6