Political gamblers obviously don't believe the new poll numbers

[Awsi Dooger]

I just checked Ladbrokes and a few offshore betting outfits. There has been zero movement in the wagering odds over the last three days.

Bush remains a slight favorite, roughly the equivalent of a 3.5 point favorite in a football game. Ladbrokes has Bush at 4/7 and Kerry at 5/4. Those translate to -1.75 on Bush and + 1.25 on Kerry. Wager 175 to win 100 on Bush, or 100 to win 125 on Kerry. For reference purposes, prior to debate #1 Bush was -2.75 and Kerry +2.00, indicating a huge plunge in Bush's favoritism. That would be equivalent to a 6.5 or 7 point NFL favorite dropping to 3.5, something that never happens minus a significant injury.

Trust me, if Bush had anything close to a legit 6 or 8 point lead he would be a significant favorite, at least triple that - 1.75. Gamblers from across the globe would be logging in or calling Ladbrokes to put their net worth on Bush at 4/7, and laughing about the grand theft. In fact, if Ladbrokes itself had any faith in those polls the odds on Bush would have been instantly adjusted upward.

A 4/7 number probably means the gambling outfits estimate Bush's lead at 2 points. That's what one sharp political bettor told me Sunday in Las Vegas. He took Kerry at 2/1 before the first debate.

[featherman]

1. Yeah, I wanted to get in on that at 2-1... like candy from a baby

I was going to call my brother-in-law in England and have him put it down for me. Sigh. More easy money gone.

[Awsi Dooger]

2. I blew it myself

If I had any brains I would have made the bet late during debate #1, when it was obvious the verbal rout was on and the polls would change dramatically. I specifically checked the odds earlier in the day and 2/1 was available everywhere. That's what I do all the time in Las Vegas, make a future bet during a key game when the result is obvious but the sportsbook personnel have not adjusted future odds yet.

But I was hosting a debate party, and too thrilled with Bush's petulance to prioritize my financial well being.

[izzie]

3. I was wondering how those things were doing.

I frankly just for get you can pull them up on this thing. Funny how you think. After about two years on this PC I do not fell I must run down town to look things up. Even seemed odd to get out of the cards and on to the PC. Habits of a life time I guess.