How to (correctly) read the polls

[quaoar]

First, forget the Gallup Poll. Last week it had Kerry leading. Opinion does not shift 10 points in one week.

What matters is Bush's final poll number, not Kerry's. This LA Times article explains why:

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/2004/la-na-fifty18oct18,1,6516901.story?coll=la-home-headlines

Polls Put Bush on the Edge
The president leads most surveys, but hovering at 50% leaves him little room for error.

By Ronald Brownstein, Times Staff Writer

WASHINGTON — While most of America is watching the spread in the polls between President Bush and Sen. John F. Kerry, key strategists in both parties have their eyes on a different set of numbers: Bush's share of the vote and his job approval in the final surveys before election day.

Analysts watch the incumbent's numbers in the polls so closely because most voters who stay undecided until the very end of a presidential campaign traditionally break for the challenger. As a result, challengers often run ahead of their final poll results, while incumbents rarely exceed their last poll numbers.

"We know from the history of presidential elections that when a president is polling below 50% going into the election, he usually loses," said Alan I. Abramowitz, an Emory University political scientist. "That is true of incumbent office holders in general. The incumbent usually ends up getting the percentage that he is getting in the final polls — that's it."

[wildeyed]

1. That is interesting.

Thanks.

I am trying not to stress too much about polls, anyway. They are educated guesses, nothing more. And besides, I can't control what other people do. I am going to try to concentrate very hard on getting dems to the polls for the next two weeks and not get distraught over numbers.

[quaoar]

5. My own prediction

is that Kerry will win 53-46 with 1 percent for others

[wildeyed]

6. works for me.

I will just keep those good numbers in mind and go about my business. :)

[Rose Siding]

2. Here's a no reg link- good piece

Polls Put Bush on the Edge- Ron Brownstein

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=2026&ncid=703&e=5&u=/latimests/20041018/ts_latimes/pollsputbushontheedge

[GOPBasher]

3. That's awesome news!

I'm very confident about this election, supposing there's no cheating on their part.

[DCal]

4. Gallup Overestimates Incumbent Final Vote

From the same article:

"Since Gallup began systematic polling in 1952, eight incumbents have sought reelection. Bill Clinton (news - web sites) in 1996, Jimmy Carter in 1980, Gerald Ford in 1976, Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 and Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1956 all attracted a smaller share of the vote on election day than they did in the final Gallup survey. Richard M. Nixon in 1972 and Ronald Reagan (news - web sites) in 1984 finished almost exactly at their final polling numbers."

So, Gallup's final polling number is almost always a ceiling for incumbents, which should be worrisome for Bush.