Help, please! Need backup for Kerry's statement on Soc Sec privatization

[antigop]

During the third debate, privatization of Social Security was discussed:
http://www.debates.org/pages/trans2004d.html
>>SCHIEFFER: Mr. President, the next question is to you. We all know
that Social Security is running out of money, and it has to be fixed.
You have proposed to fix it by letting people put some of the money
collected to pay benefits into private savings accounts. But the
critics are saying that's going to mean finding $1 trillion over the
next 10 years to continue paying benefits as those accounts are being
set up.

.....

KERRY:
The CBO said very clearly that if you were to adopt the president's
plan, there would be a $2 trillion hole in Social Security, because
today's workers pay in to the system for today's retirees. And the CBO
said -- that's the Congressional Budget Office; it's bipartisan --
they said that there would have to be a cut in benefits of 25 percent
to 40 percent.
>>

Can someone please provide me with a link to the Congression Budget Office document that Kerry referred to? I can't seem to find it.

[Career Prole]

1. Paul O'Neill should come forward and Greenspan should get

hit with an honesty club.
In "The Price of Loyalty", O'Neill says both he and Greenspan tried to talk Shrub into reforming Social Security as soon as he took (stole) office and there was still a big surplus.
They told him they estimated a cost of a trillion dollars over a ten year phase-in but warned the dumb-ass he couldn't afford that and a huge tax cut.
He blew the experts off and said the tax cuts would pay for S.S. reform down the road.
Now we'll be paying for that hubris down the road.

[papau]

2. Backup below - 1.2 T 10 year deficit increase offset by $200 B SS cut

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1153340/posts


CBO: Social Security Stronger Than Thought
WINS NEWS

Posted on 06/14/2004 11:17:50 AM


WASHINGTON (AP) -- Social Security's long-term prospects are better than previously thought, a congressional report said Monday, estimating the program won't become insolvent until 2052, a decade later than projected earlier this year.

CBO Report on no problem until 2052 with Social Security - and maybe not then.
http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=5530&sequence=0

NOTE THE 15% cut beginning in 2052, and 30% cut from current levels in 85 years if the assumptions are correct.

==============================================================

The 7/21/04 CBO Report on effect of privatization on Social Security and the "transition Cost" is hidden in these two sales letters that try to hide the cost as a change in the percent of GDP - and do not give actual numbers!

Congressional Budget Office Long-Term Analysis of Kolbe-Stenholm Social Security Reform Proposal, H.R. 3821 (July 21, 2004)

ftp://ftp.cbo.gov/56xx/doc5665/07-21-KolbeLongTermLetter.pdf

Congressional Budget Office Long-Term Analysis of President's Social Security Commission Plan #2 (July 21, 2004)
ftp://ftp.cbo.gov/56xx/doc5666/07-21-CraigLetter.pdf

Congressional Budget Office 10-Year Budget Estimate of Kolbe-Stenholm Social Security Reform Proposal, H.R. 3821 (July 21, 2004)

ftp://ftp.cbo.gov/56xx/doc5667/hr3821.pdf

The last one above on page 3 reveals the 1.2 Trillion cost over ten years, with an offset in actual paid Social Security Benefits - can we say cut? - of 0.2 Trillion - or if you like a $200 billion cut in Social Security payouts in the first 10 years.

[antigop]

4. I was hoping you would respond

because I know you have looked at this.

I just don't have time to look through this and the issue came up on another board that I follow.

Quick questions:

Specifically, where is Kerry drawing the percentages he quoted during the debate. Also, what privatization plan was Kerry referring to -- i.e., what percentage of Social Security can be diverted to private accounts? Isn't Bush currently supporting two percent? And is that the amount that Kerry was referring to?

I will try to read your links in depth, because I really want to understand this.

Thanks so much for your help.

[papau]

6. Kolbe-Stenholm H.R. 3821 2.3% to private accounts is the plan - BUT

note that HR 3821 RAISES TAXES ON THE MIDDLE CLASS by raising the wage base enough to generate an extra $300 B in revenue over 10 years, but refuses to hit the rich by making all wages subject to the payroll tax with the offset - to be fair - of using the rich's high salaries to generate additional benefits for the rich - by using the 15% factor now used for the top of the wage base.

Benefit cuts include the increase in normal retirement age to 70, so as to reduce the benefit paid at age 62- and as always - this is HIDDEN - AS IS THE GOP WAY - IN AN "INCREASE IN LIFE SPAN ADJUSTMENT" TO REDUCE BENEFITS.

Minor benefit cuts are also there at the "high end" of middle class - just to show how fair the GOP is - by factor adjustment (the 15% becomes 10% for the highest salary folks).

Another benefit cut aimed at the higher end middle class is the cut is the spousal benefit for high middle income couples.

And a final cut in benefits is in the calculation procedure that now allows top 35 years to be used with lower years being thrown out as you you get the average salary that determines your benefit - the new law would no longer let you throw out those low years.

Ya got-ta love those GOP - those compassionate conservative GOP!

:-)

[antigop]

7. Still read and trying to digest

Kerry mentioned benefit cuts between 25% and 40%.

Exactly where are these numbers coming from??


(I'm still reading.)

Geez, you really have to poke through this stuff to find out what it's really saying.

[papau]

8. Hidden cuts-30% is the retirement age change to 70 hidden as an adjustment

for increased lifespan that would not be done all at once - but it would be done - and in small steps....sigh- very cute - very hidden - very real

The 2nd cut is the "drop low years after you have 35" being ended.

And the third cut is the spousal benefit cut.

And the 4th cut is the messing with the high end and low end percentages that are applied to your average wages to get to the final benefit.

The actual costing of each was done by the Actuaries at the Social Security Administration - but the GOP half qualified "Chief Actuary" now confuses the issue by applying probabilities to good and bad results - pulled out of the air - so as to avoid showing the result using the best guess deterministic model after 10 and 20 years.

[antigop]

9. thanks so much

I wish you could respond to these wingnuts on this other message board.

I try, really try, to stay up on things, but DANG! it's hard.

[Toucano]

3. I think this is it.

http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=5666&sequence=0

I haven't read the whole thing, but I believe the hole Kerry speaks of is clearly represented by this graphy as a bubble where outlays exceed revenues in 2005.

[antigop]

5. will take a look -- thanks

n/t

[sherilocks]

10. From Kerry's speech Does this help?

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2004/10/18/MNG3S9BISL1.DTL

<snip>

Kerry based this allegation on a secondhand, unattributed account of a private speech Bush reportedly delivered to Republican supporters in September.
"I am going to come in strong after my swearing in ... with fundamental tax reform, tort reform, privatizing of Social Security," Bush was quoted as saying in a Sunday New York Times Magazine article that was highly critical of the president. The article was written by Ron Suskind, co-author with former Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill of a book condemning the Bush administration.
<snip>

[Nicholas_J]

11. Cant find direct report but

try these,

http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=1283&sequence=0

www.socialsecurity.org/sstw/sstw01-07-02.pdf

www.socialsecurity.org/sstw/sstw01-22-01.pdf