Will New Stats on Military Vote Offset all the New Registrations???

[DemocracyInaction]

We are told that the new voter registration is coming in at about 2 to 1 Democrats. MSNBC had an Annenberg Poll today of military families (the GI and his kinfolk). 69% are voting Bush and 29% Kerry. Let me throw something out to you:

Some of this KIN and the soldier who are still stateside will be voting absentee from another state and some will be declaring where they are as home and voting there. And then there is the mass of ballots coming from soliders and KIN not in the US. Those who are here on US soil and voting locally would, in essence, be covered in that particular state's polls. The rest are going to be in the big "surprise" column as their ballots come flooding in (and I'm sure they are going to vote). It seems like the battle will be whether the sheer numbers of over 2/3 military/kin vote is greater or smaller than the 2/3 trend in new registrations (who we still have to get out to vote). Do you think a lot of these votes will basically be dumped in a handful of states because of places the GI now lives (bases) and/or a lot of them declare like Texas or Florida for the tax purposes. Bottom line: I don't think a big chunk of this vote is calculated in any poll just like the new registrations aren't. What do you make of it all???

[Love Bug]

1. What % of US population are military families?

And is it large enough to make a difference?

[Tweed]

2. Overseas voters are not counted either in the polls.

And I've read that they have requested absentee ballots in record numbers. I don't have numbers on them, but I'm guessing they would number the same amount of military voters, possibly more and I'm guessing that they would more likely be against Bush. They are away from American media and have a media that actual works and they are in a country where the majority of people living around them don't like Bush.

It's all guess work though.

[politicat]

3. There are about 3.4 million military members and families. 10 mill. new

voters were registered nationwide. If we registered voters at a 2:1 ratio, that means we registered about 6.6 million NEW Democrats. Now, recall, not all of that 3.4 million can vote, will vote, or will vote R. (I expect half to vote, just like civilians. I've never seen numbers that state that military members vote more often than civilians.)

Since Dems make up about 60% of the registered voters ANYWAY...

The math is pretty clear: we're in better shape overall.

Pcat

[roseBudd]

4. We also have the expat vote with only Israel liking the US n/t