My view on the whole poll issue

[iceman_419]

I remember that after the debates in 2000, which pundits thought Bush had won, Bush's poll numbers actually went down while Gore's numbers went up. So there is some precedent for this. Also most if not all the polls are within the margin of error so this race is still tight. We just need to make sure that we get out the vote. We stress it a lot now, but it is so true. Every vote for Kerry is a kick in the nuts for Bush, so we should let everyone have at it.

[Rhoderick]

1. Poll Fluctation

Polls fluctuate like the weather, and they're highly dependent upon many variables, such as: the time of day in which the poll is taken, how the poll is taken, the sample size, the day of the week, the framing of the questions, etc.

I don't pay much attention to national tracking polls. Averaging state polls is a better method of getting a good picture of the trends in the swing states.

[newyawker99]

3. Hi Rhoderick!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[nodictators]

2. In 2000, all but two of the major polls had Bush winning

In reality, the only two polls that got it right were Zogby and CBS, which used Zogby data. They both gave Gore a one percentage-point victory. Gore won by more than one-half a percentage point, or 540,000 votes.

The ABC-Washington Post daily tracking poll had Bush ahead by 4% the day before the election. That was probably outsde their margin of error.