DemocracyInaction
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Mon Oct-18-04 11:29 AM
Original message |
Reuters: Kerry has 13 Point Lead in Battleground States |
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Edited on Mon Oct-18-04 11:30 AM by DemocracyInaction
I have to ask about this because it's quite confusing. Read and re-read article. It reports about the campaigns going to Florida where they say it's tied 48-48. It says Bush has a couple point lead nationwide among Likely voters. It then says, though, that Kerry is carrying a commanding lead of 13 points in the battleground states.
Now, obviously, Bush's couple point lead nationwide doesn't translate into a win since it depends on what states those percentages fall (example: Bush winning Texas by 99% rather than 90% makes no difference). But this shrinking the map to just the battleground states and saying Kerry has a 13 point lead also is basically meaningless since it depends on exactly which states he carries. Obviously we have seen no poll where Kerry is carrying a battleground by 13 points or it wouldn't be a battleground state. Therefore, I cannot understand why they have such a poll but more importantly I just can't quite glean from this exactly what it all indicates. Does it imply that there is much more hidden strength in these states for Kerry than Bush? What is your take on it and why do they have such a poll???? Edit: by the way they refer to this as based on a nunmber of surveyS (plural--not just one poll).
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fertilizeonarbusto
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Mon Oct-18-04 11:30 AM
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your "hidden strength" notion is dead-on.
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detroit
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Mon Oct-18-04 11:31 AM
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2. Please post link (n/t) |
WI_DEM
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Mon Oct-18-04 11:31 AM
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DemocracyInaction
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Mon Oct-18-04 11:32 AM
Response to Reply #3 |
5. No link - I get it off my satelite TV |
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but I imagine it's out there somewhere in computerland.
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diplomats
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Mon Oct-18-04 11:32 AM
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4. Could you provide a link? |
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That's probably in reference to yesterday's Zogby tracking poll, that had Bush up 2. Today, it's tied.
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Doosh
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Mon Oct-18-04 11:33 AM
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6. no wonder Bush had an emergency strategy meeting yesterday |
CatWoman
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Mon Oct-18-04 11:42 AM
Response to Reply #6 |
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that's "strategerie" meeting :D
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NewYorkerfromMass
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Mon Oct-18-04 11:34 AM
Response to Original message |
7. Kerry efforts have been focused in the battlegrounds |
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notably, WI, PA, OH, and FL. Iowa too but I have never seen it as a risk. There are also heavy ground games in NV, AZ, MO, and anywhere else we have a chance, such as VA, and NC.
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dave502d
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Mon Oct-18-04 11:37 AM
Response to Reply #7 |
9. So if this true than what dose Bush do. |
belle
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Mon Oct-18-04 12:43 PM
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15. Just got an email from Kerry HQ saying that CO is back in focus for them |
mzmolly
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Mon Oct-18-04 11:35 AM
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8. shhhh, keep them focused on the Gallup national polls. |
DemocratSinceBirth
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Mon Oct-18-04 11:38 AM
Response to Original message |
10. It Is Virtually Impossible To Lose Win The Electoral College |
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but lose the popular vote by a significant margin...
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MidwestTransplant
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Mon Oct-18-04 11:40 AM
Response to Reply #10 |
13. That's what Charlie Cook said |
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He said a couple of points pop vote win will make it impossible to loose the electoral vote.
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Momof1
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Mon Oct-18-04 11:38 AM
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11. Here is a link, it doesn't say 13 pts, but 10 pts. |
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http://www.cbc.ca/story/world/national/2004/10/17/uselexn041017.htmlSnip: And a Washington Post poll shows Kerry with a significant lead in important states that could decide the outcome of the election. The poll found Kerry held a 53 per cent to 43 per cent lead among likely voters in 13 such states. Is this the poll you were talking about?:shrug:
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DemocratSinceBirth
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Mon Oct-18-04 11:39 AM
Response to Reply #11 |
12. I Saw That... It Strikes Me As Odd And Incongruous (nt) |
WilmywoodNCparalegal
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Mon Oct-18-04 12:50 PM
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16. Well, here's how I see it... |
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* may have, say, 90% of the votes in Alabama and 10% of the votes in NY. If this were the case, then a national poll (assuming the U.S. were made up of only Alabama and NY) would show a tie. But we know that in the end, the electoral college votes count. So, even if the national poll was a tie, Kerry would win the Electoral College and thus the presidency by winning in the state with more electoral college voters (NY).
So, if a poll says Kerry has a lead in the battleground states but the national picture still leads to a tie, then I may assume that * is getting a large percentage in Utah, Alabama, Mississippi, the Dakotas and a smaller percentage in other states, while Kerry is getting the rest. In this scenario, then, Kerry is heavily favored, even with a tie, if the poll is accurate in stating that Kerry has an advantage in battleground states, because of the electoral college votes.
Do I make any sense?
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DemocratSinceBirth
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Mon Oct-18-04 12:55 PM
Response to Reply #16 |
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Edited on Mon Oct-18-04 12:56 PM by DemocratSinceBirth
It is theoretically possible to win the Electoral College with an absurdly low percentage of the popular vote but it is not within the realm of probable outcomes...
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TruthWins
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Mon Oct-18-04 12:55 PM
Response to Original message |
18. Good Point, Wouldn't you have to be leading by 10% in at least one |
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battleground state to have a 10% lead in the battlegrounds? That's just basic math.
I guess it depends on what they consider battlegrounds. New Jersey, Oregon & Michigan are sometimes considered battlegrounds, but I think they'll go havily Kerry this time. Still, though, is Kerry leading by 10% in ANY of those states?
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Tue May 07th 2024, 10:40 AM
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