John Zogby-John Kerry will be the 44th President of the United States.

[59millionmorons]

From his mouth to God's ears.

'Polling can be uncertain only if you rely on statistics alone,' is Mr Zogby's riposte. 'That's why an effective pollster has to rely on culture, history and sociology. I repeat, polling is the study of human behaviour, not simply a sampling of people's preferences.'

That may well explain his success. His big test will come on Nov 2. In Singapore last Friday, he flatly predicted that Mr Kerry would become the 44th President of the United States.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=894

[aquart]

1. Or we die.

[goodboy]

11. N freakin' T

[Renew Deal]

22. You democrats are all pessimists.

}(

[MichiganVote]

2. Zogby or no Zogby-I'll never believe Bush has won legitimately

[beyurslf]

3. Who did he say would win in 2000?

[NewJeffCT]

4. he basically predicted a tie

he was the most accurate of them all in 2000.

[59millionmorons]

5. And in 1996

He knows his stuff.

[DELUSIONAL]

6. Bandwagon effect --should kick in

My feeling is that some of the undecideds (probably most) are merely waiting to see who the likely winner will be.

As soon as the polls show an strong move toward Kerry -- then the undecideds will climb right on the Kerry bandwagon.

There is a lot of old research on the bandwagon effect in politics in polling. I've read the research in journals about attitudes and polling years ago.

I really doubt that human nature has changed so much in the last 30 years that people today no longer want to vote for a winner. -- it is the "see I was right -- I voted for the right person"

(edited to clean up logic)

[endnote]

14. But the polls may not show that...

[DELUSIONAL]

21. The bandwagon effect is determined after the fact

if I remember correctly from the research reported in the journal articles.

But the more people precieve Kerry as the front runner -- the more bandwagon voters will be drawn to vote for him.

We saw the bandwagon effect in California -- for the Gropenator.

Also when the media focuses on one candidate and misrepresents the other candidate -- I believe the bandwagon voters could be influenced. This is why the way the media is proping up the bubble boy is so wrong.

Again I am going from memory -- but I did spend hundreds of hours reading polling research and group dynamics -- as the research existed many years ago. This is a cross between soc Psychology and group dynamics and Mass Soc.

[I Lean Left]

33. The flip side of the bandwagon vote is the protest vote

Once someone who is disgusted with either canidate decides that it is locked up in their state (it doesn't matter which way) they feel more ready to cast their protest vote or not vote at all. That's the additional reason that horse race polls don't accurately predict. Some polls attempt to measure enthusiasm (will you vote no matter what? will you vote for the specific candidate no matter what? etc.). It's tough to measure though and can contribute to variations (though admittedly not large) on election day. It is conceivable that some states perceived to be close but comfortable (Pennsylvania, NC, Arkansas, NJ) could actually wind up closer than Ohio or Florida, where there will be unbelievable GOTV.

[liberalpragmatist]

7. He's privately predicting Kerry by NINE

At least that's what Chris Matthews shared with us when he gave a lecture at our school. I didn't have any outside confirmation about this, but recently I got some. In an article posted on Zogby.com from the Strait Times (Singapore), Zogby uses a polling model where he asks the respondents "would you rather vote for a tinman, with lots of brains but no heart, or the scarecrow, with a big heart, but no brains." In 2000, the respondents were tied. This year, the "tinman" is up by 9.

[Was_Immer]

8. are you joking or serious?

I cant tell, and I dont mean it offensively or rudely, just dont get it.

P.S. what school did matthews visit? Was it an all liberal crowd that he was trying to please, or was he serious.

[IIgnoreNobody]

9. my prediction Kerry 54 Bush 44 Other 2

[naufragus]

10. bush at 46

[Stephanie]

20. I would go with that

I think it's indisputable.

Think anecdotally. Do you know any Gore voters who are now going with Bush? Doubtful.

Now - do you know any Bush voters who this year will go Kerry, or some alternative? I bet you do. I sure do. I also know many new voters, and many new young activists working for Kerry.

I say KERRY IN A LANDSLIDE.

[liberalpragmatist]

17. Oh, I'm serious

I go to Wash U. in St. Louis. About a week before the debate, Matthews talked to an audience at our school, discussed the latest polls, the political climate. He wasn't rabidly left-wing or anything, but he left no doubt he's voting Kerry. Still, he himself predicted Bush would win in a squeaker because of the residual goodwill from 9/11 and from conservatives voting for Bush as "lesser of two evils" - disgruntled, but not sold on Kerry.

He said most pollsters he'd talked to agreed with him, but Zogby told him he predicted Kerry by 9.

As for the Tinman/Scarecrow poll - it's real. Check out this link and read the article I talked about:

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=893

Here's the passage in question:

Their numbers - about seven million - could tip the scales in a tight race. Going by the Tin Man/Scarecrow contest, Mr Kerry is ahead by 9 percentage points. So over the next three weeks, said Mr Zogby, the battle will be less over issues and more on voter turnout.

[Was_Immer]

18. Well now you burst my happiness :(

About the comment that Matthews (and other pollsters) thinking Bush would win in a squeaker.

But we'll win no doubt!

[yardwork]

24. Remember that tweety is highly unreliable

I take everything - absolutely everything - Chris Matthews says with a huge grain of salt. He might sneak the truth in now and then but most of the time he has an ulterior motive for what he says and it has nothing to do with telling the truth.

Tweety is ammoral.

[EST]

32. The Tin Man question was on the latest Zogby internet

poll -10/11/04- was the date I got the e-mail, did the survey on the twelfth. Neat question. I, too perferred the tinman with brains. I think Kerry has a huge heart, even though people say he seems aloof and cold.

[Chichiri]

12. That's close to my prediction -- I'm predicting it'll be Kerry by 7. (n/t)

[Longgrain]

19. I'd rather vote for a Lion...

The use the wizard of Oz analogie...I'd rather vote for a lion with heart, brains, and courage.
(that's Kerry BTW):thumbsup:

[EST]

35. Welcome to DU!

I trust you are enjoying it here. Perhaps I should change it to "welcome Home."
:toast:

[RevCheesehead]

36. I'd have to give it to Toto --

after all, he is the one who exposed the Wizard!

[bullimiami]

26. that was a stupid question and i refused to answer it.

come on kerry has heart and brains
bush has neither.

if the question was would you rather vote for a scarecrow/tinman hybrid with heart and brains OR a heartless dummy I could have understood it.

[liberalpragmatist]

28. Yeah, but the point was building off of perceptions

Like it or not, perceptions play a role in who the voters choose. I agree that Kerry has a heart. But it probably adequately fits many of those in the middle or who are wavering - misled by *'s misleading attacks.

[NNadir]

13. Kerry technically cannot be the 44th President, since the 43rd postion

was vacant.

There is a person who has acted as President, but there is no 43rd President.

[joanne]

16. I heard reports that people lined up for over 2 hours to vote

in Florida today. Of course, the problems they were having had something to do with it. :eyes: But they waited.

And my point is.... this could be an indication of a VERY high voter turnout for election day.

Usually a high turnout is because people are MAD and they want a change.

This should be great news for the next President, John Kerry.

[bullimiami]

25. northeast miami-dade report

i went to the grocery around 6:30. the library across the street is one of the early voting sites.

the line was out the door and down the side of the building around 100' both when I came and left.

Ive never seen anything like it.

[NAO]

27. Al Gore was the 43rd President, Forced Into Exile by Judicial Coup

Al Gore was the 43rd President of the United States. He was not allowed to serve in the position to which he was rightfully elected by the People of the United States of America.

Instead, Gore was forced into exile when a cabal of right-wing fanatics staged a judicial coup 'd etat and seized control of the United States government against the expressly stated Will of the People.

These tyrants, "the Bush/Cheney neo-con regime" ruled over the United States until they were decisively deposed by the Will of the People in the daring and bold "Operation American Freedom" whose "Mission was Accomplished" on November 2, 2004.

This is how the history books will cover it. At least the ones I write.

[shelley806]

29. I hope your predictions

of history will be true. Your accounting of the 2000 election is true.

[kaitykaity]

15. What did Zogby say in 2000?

Flatly predicted, eh? Hm.

[Senator Lamb]

23. victory soon

in 2000, i was like only 14, but i remember his poll was the only one that gore ahead by one point. so he was the only one that got it right. and even at 14 i predicted gore would win pennsylvannia, new mexico, and yes FLORIDA!

we are going to win big and nothing those facists do can stop us.

[djack23]

30. Prediction

Kerry 51%
Bush 47%
Other 2%

Electoral Vote:
Kerry: Gore States + much more.

KERRY WIN!

[EST]

34. Welcome to DU!

I like your numbers as they agree with my own. The point that the poster above made was also particularly comforting -that nobody who voted for Al Gore is going to vote for * and there are thousands who voted for Nader that are now going to vote for Kerry. Many who voted for * in 2000 are going to vote for JFK, as well, and perhaps this will offset the fraud the thugs are perpetrating.

[LiberalAndProud]

31. And I say Amen!