Nov. 2 Predictions

[liberalpragmatist]

Let's do a predictions thread

Here's mine:

Popular Vote (61% turnout)
Kerry 51%
Bush 46.5%
Nader 1%
Badnarik 1%
Others 0.5%

Electoral Vote
Kerry 301
Bush 237

Here's a handy electoral calculator to use. Click once to turn a state red, twice to turn it blue: http://www.opinionjournal.com/ecc/calculator.htm

EDIT: New Rule: Please write which "up for grab" states you awarded for Kerry and any swing states or Gore losses you give to Bush.

I'm turning NH, Fla, Colorado and Nev. blue. Also turning Virginia blue - going out on a major limb. Giving Bush Wisconsin. Everything else is the same.

[nadinbrzezinski]

1. Kerry in a landslide

Yep Kerry will win in both Electoral (over 300) and popular vote, and yes presence at the polls will be way above expectations.

Why I am not giving you more precise numbers? I expect AT LEAST eight million extra voters at the polls and most of them will vote Democratic

[turbo_satan]

20. Maybe not a landslide, but...

... I think he'll win by a far bigger margin than most news outlets would have you believe. Whenever I start to get depressed about the upcoming vote, I have to remind myself that I know FAR more people who voted Bush in 2K and will be voting Kerry in 2K4 than I know people who voted Gore in 2K and will be voting Bush in 2K4. And remember: Bush actually *lost* in 2K.

I do think it's crucial that we all get out and do our part to make sure there aren't any polling shenanigans this time around (my wife and I are part of Election Protection in Florida, which oughtta be interesting).

BTW, this is my first post after lurking for many, many months. A big hello and thanks to everybody here! Although you might not have intended to, you've provided me with comfort and sustenance during this very, very dark and trying season. When the rest of the world looks like bizarro-land, it's quite comforting to know there are like-minded denizens of the reality-based community (TM).

turbo_satan

[Taylor Mason Powell]

21. Welcome to DU!!

(n/t)

[newyawker99]

23. Hi turbo_satan!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[RummyTheDummy]

2. Here;s mine

Kerry 272
Bush 266

Brace yourself folks. It's gonna be a loooooooong night.

[terrya]

3. Illinois Senate race:

Barack Obama: 72.1%
Alan Keyes: 27.9%

[liberalpragmatist]

5. Illinois Senate Results

Obama: 76%
Keyes: 12%
Kohn (Lib.): 12%

[terrya]

8. Oh! I didn't factor in the Libertarian.

Your results sound good.

Either way...it will be the most lopsided race of the night. :-)

[tcfrogs]

Please Terrya!

Let Keyes get 30%, just so I can win my bet! Not that I'm supporting the idiot, just thought 30% was reasonable a few months ago. Now that Keyes opened his mouth, I'm going to lose the bet!!!

[terrya]

9. I wish you didn't have to lose your bet, tcfrogs!

But not even Downstate...not even the Chicago suburbs...are going to help Keyes.

Keyes will definitely get below 30%.

[tcfrogs]

11. I know, I just figured 30% would HAVE to vote for the Repug candidate

Just on principle. Oh well, it's only a small wager.

[Ediacara]

4. My worst case scenario is a tie

Kerry taking all of Gore's states (highly probable) and picking up New Hampshire and Nevada.

That gives both 269 ECVs.

I don't think this will happen however, I think Kerry will pick up Ohio, all or some of Colorado, probably Arkansas, possibly Missouri and Florida, and maybe Virginia and West Virginia. Getting all the states listed gives Kerry 360 ECVs. I think around 300-310 is most likely.

[liberalpragmatist]

7. So that's something like 293-245 Kerry

Giving Kerry Ohio, NH, and Colorado

[Ediacara]

12. Right

That's with all 9 of Colorado's votes going to Kerry, and without Nevada. As you probably know, there is a referendum in Colorado concerning splitting the votes between winner and loser, so IF it passes, Kerry is guarenteed 4 of the 9 votes there.

I think Missouri and Arkansas are within reach too, and that would bring us into a comfortable 305-315 range.

[hippiegranny]

6. mine came out to

B- 234
K - 304

[liberalpragmatist]

10. Which states flipped?

n/t

[Anarcho-Socialist]

13. Kerry 338 Bush* 200

Pick-ups: Ohio, Florida, Nevada, Missouri, Arkansas, West Virginia, New Hampshire

[kostya]

14. Kerry 300+ EVs, over 50% popular vote <EOM>

[mbee]

15. The chicken media is so afraid of big bad shrubbie and they won't

admit that Kerry has a huge, huge landslide waiting for him on November 2nd! Start stocking up in your champagne!

[joanne]

16. I give Kerry all the Gore states first of all

and will add West Virginia, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Nevada.

Maybe Missouri and Arkansas too. I might even add Florida but not with all the voting problems they apparently are having already.

[diamond14]

17. Virginia casts her 13 Electorial Votes for KERRY !!!!

Virginia has turned BLUE, and bush* can't even see it yet....

Veterans are MAD at bush*
Military families are MAD at bush*
Soldiers are MAD at bush*
Environmentalists are MAD at bush*
Seniors are MAD at bush*
Draft-age young Virginians are MAD at bush*
reTHUGlicans are MAD at bush*
anti-USAPATRIOT Act old-confederate Virginians are MAD at bush*

we've done the phone banks, the distributions, the county fairs and school openings, the local fall events...AND the major voting registration for NEW young Voters, and NEW immigrant Voters...the blue collar workers of Virginia will ALL vote Kerry....HUGE numbers of NEW Voters for Kerry....

Virginia is BLUE and we're voting for KERRY !!!!

[mdguss]

18. Kerry Wins:

Electoral Vote:

Kerry: 305-315.

Popular vote: 49-48 Kerry, though I am starting to suspect the opposite of what happend four years ago. Bush may win the popular vote but lose the election. Either way, the popular vote will be very, very close.

In my opinion, it won't be as close in the electoral college.

Let's do everything we can to make all of these predicitons ring true on November 3rd!

[Chichiri]

19. Kerry by at least 7% of the popular vote

and at least 100 EVs.

[many a good man]

22. Kerry 54 bush* 44 Nader 2

Kerry swims to victory with 328-210 electoral college landslide.

[jab105]

24. I'm still in a tossup...

Kerry is secure in PA, and I think can pull out NM and NV...I gave him MN also and NH...

I gave Bush Iowa, though I am not quite sure if he can win it (as far as electoral votes, its not that important)...

the three tossup are WI, OH, and FL (my state)...
If Kerry wins OH or FL, he's got it won...WI doesn't really matter...

Its OH or FL...

We are working our butts off in FL...I hope that we can swing it for Kerry this year!!