New SurveyUSA state polls (Pennsylvania SAFE KERRY)

[Doosh]

Florida

Kerry- 50
Bush- 49

Pennsylvania

Kerry- 51
Bush- 45

(Kerry pulling away, backs up the reports of Bush polling out, they saw this in there internals last week)

North Carolina

Bush- 50
Kerry- 47

(can't put Kerry away here)

Arkansas

Bush- 51
Kerry- 46

(big dog can make a difference, don't concede yet!)

[wildeyed]

1. Oooh, liking my home state numbers.

I voted for Kerry today in NC. Start driving those good dem voters to the early voting end of week. :)

[4_Legs_Good]

2. Great work! NC going blue would be HUGE!

:)

david

[Doosh]

4. get Edwards to NC and fast

hold a couple of rallies there

[wishlist]

11. Great to see NC that close! My friends and family have all voted early

Lots of us here in NC have already voted early for Kerry since the polls opened last Thursday. The letters to the editor in our paper have been overwhelmingly pro-Kerry and anti-Bush. The more rural lower income areas where residents are less well educated though seem to be favoring Bush, but at least we have a fighting chance of Dems winning.

[4_Legs_Good]

3. Keep it up everyone!

2 weeks. I don't know if I'm gonna make it! This is driving me nutz!

4 years in the waiting, and I don't know if I can stay drunk for another 4 years

*hic*

david

[shawmut]

5. wow, those numbers are fantastic

Think about it - these are the sames kinds of state poll numbers we had back in July and August before the Smear Vet crap. We really couldn't be in much better shape at this point, imo.

[Bombtrack]

6. The fact is we need 10 EV's in addition to the states Gore won if we win

all of the Gore states. Which is not a garentee. I saw some numbers for Minnesota and Wisconsin that made me very nervous.

So, unfortunatly, we still need to win either Florida or Ohio to get this thing in my opinion. I don't see us getting a comination of WV and NV, or Missouri, or Colorado anymore unless Kerry gets a blowout nationally.

New Hampshire does us nothing really because there aren't any 2000 red states worth from 6 to 9 EV's that are up for grabs right now

[kostya]

10. Take ALL the polls with a big grain of salt

Turnout is the key, not the polls. State polls are more unreliable than national polls, which are mostly crap right now. GOTV!

[Bombtrack]

12. Actually if you look at the primary season

the state polls really were relatively close to the results.

I just think it's a naive attitude to dismiss polls. I don't see anybody with any brains in journalism, independant or mainstream doing the same.

[4_Legs_Good]

13. Missouri is the key. We're 2 points away...

We can lose Florida, win the Gore states and if we take Missouri, we're golden. If we take Nevada, New Hampshire and 1/2 of Colorado we're okay too, I believe.

You're right, though, that Ohio is critical. I simply do not trust Florida, though I think we have a very good chance there.

Ugh, what a pain this whole thing is. I'm almost to the point where I wish it were over either way. I can't stand the tension!

david

[liberalpragmatist]

14. Minnesota will go to us

Bush has never led the polling there and is rarely above 47%. It's a possiblity he'll win, but just as you feel that Kerry won't win Colorado or Missouri without a national landslide, I don't think Bush will win Minnesota unless he wins nationally by about 4.

Wisconsin and Iowa, on the other hand, are in danger of going to Bush by razor-thin margins.

I agree we probably need to get either Ohio or Florida to win. But I can see us winning NH, Nevada, and Colorado for a winning combo. I agree it's unlikely, but we are in a slightly better position than Bush regarding Ohio and Florida: because we take most of the large states, it's actually possible for us to lose 2 outta the "big 3" (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida) and still win. We'll take NH, so if we can add some combination of the following, Nevada, Colorado, Arkansas, West Virginia, while holding on to Wisconsin and Iowa we can win.

It's virtually impossible to see how Bush wins if he loses 2 out of the "Big 3." I agree we should win either Ohio and Florida, and not doing so would make a very tall order - but it can be done, so if we lose Ohio and Florida on election night, don't concede too quickly.

[Clintmax]

7. Come on Florida Dems!

Let's pull further out!

[Bombtrack]

8. I read some prominent blogger or journalist bashing SUSA's methodology

anyone know anything about this? I can't remember from where I read it.

[Doosh]

9. look at the PA internals on Muslim voters

Kerry 100%
Bush 0%