Estimate poll numbers with no call refusals and calling cell phones

[Paragon]

I'm thinking...Kerry 85%, Bush 15%? :)

[SheilaT]

1. Dream on.

The reality is that at least 40% of the population continues to believe that Bush is a good president and should be re-elected.

Personally, I'm appalled that anyone earning less than $200,000 per year would support him, but there you go.

[LVdem]

5. We earn more than 200K...

and there isn't a snowball chance in hell that we would vote for anyone other than KERRY>>>

[SheilaT]

7. I'm so glad to hear,

and I know other well-off people who are also dedicated Kerry supporters. But far too many of the high-income folks seem only to think of themselves.

What's really distressing is the ones who don't understand that economically they have no business supporting Bush.

[LVdem]

12. This is interesting...

A good friend (radiologist, gobs of cash,worried about this taxes) who is a hardcore repub is this close to not voting for GWB. The reason: Bush's faith-based decision making. It scares him. I doubt he will vote K/E, but one less vote for Bush in NV is a step in the right direction.

[Alleycat]

6. I'm just as frustrated

What do people with half a brain see in him. I don't see the strong leader I see a wimp who can't speak, has been the most managed and handled pres of our time.

[sandnsea]

13. I'm appalled anybody would support him

I just told a friend of mine who has a cazillion in stock that he was an idiot if he voted for Bush. And gave him that Reagan Republican article. Where's the loyalty to the country? Where's the patriotism? Nobody should be voting for this dimwit, absolutely nobody.

[calmblueocean]

2. How do they decide who to call?

Do they dial straight out of the phone book, or use some sort of list? I think the polls are massively underindicating the amount of dissatisfaction with Bush, maybe because they're only calling people who voted in 2000, and not getting enough newly registered voters.

[SheilaT]

8. There's various ways

the surveys are conducted. Some of them are working from voter registration lists, but there's a common wisdom that says if you didn't vote last time, you won't vote this time. That's only partially true. EVERYONE has a first time to vote.

The biggest problem really is that it's extremely difficult to get through to anyone. So many people have caller ID, or simply screen all calls through their answering machines. I'm noticing these days that I'm having a lot of trouble getting through to personal friends.

The other huge unknown is the fact that so many people no longer use land lines, only cell phones. At this point we have no way of knowing if those people will vote differently from the traditional land-line users.

What has me worried is that all this polling is simply setting us up to accept any result whatsoever come November 2nd, because we'll have been conditioned by wildly varying polls, and all the ones which show Bush as an 8 or 12 point favorite.

[LiberalFighter]

15. I don't think cell phones are a major factor yet if...

it is true that 5% have only cell phones. The article also stated that those in the lower voting age bracket were in the 15% range.

Caller-ID I believe has become more of device used by households to screen calls. In addition, people are much busier and their activities keep them out of the home.

Most people hate telemarketers and that led to the Do-Not-Call list which has to be a factor.

[sandnsea]

14. First, pick a zip code

I've seen pollsters say that's the only part of the calling they control, the zip code. Hmmmm.

[swag]

3. K50, B46, U/O 4

That's right, Urge Overkill gets 4 undeserved percentage points.

[Alleycat]

4. That would be so nice!!

What a wake up call. Unfortunely I don't see it being so much of a blow out. I think it will be close however not like 2000. Kerry is so much of a stronger candidate and quite a few people are really pissed. I am still nervous but optimistic.

[BillZBubb]

9. Dude, you ARE an optimist!

I'd guess Kerry 49%, Bush* 45%, also rans 6%. The 6% will break mainly to Kerry on election day.

[IIgnoreNobody]

10. So, predict the popular vote. K 54 B 44 O 2

[Awsi Dooger]

11. Well, I wish you were a Vegas oddsmaker

A few points net to kerry, as others have already estimated.

Cell phones and registration won't win the election for us. Kerry has two weeks to even the race, tahe the lead, or get it within a point or two so undecideds can make the difference.