10/18 ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 318 EV, 98% WIN PROB, 51.23% OF THE VOTE

[TruthIsAll]

The media tells us that Bush is leading. Right.

Zogby and Rasmussen say the race is TIED.
The Economist and ARG have consistently had Kerry in front.

If it's tied, then that's just where we want to be, because the undecideds break at least 2-1 for the challenger.

If Kerry is leading, so much the better.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[Steelangel]

1. excellent

Chimp's approval rating increased somewhat, 48.88% now.. it got me bit worried. I hope it will not go any higher than that until Nov 2 :x

[whirlygigspin]

2. approval #'s

CBS Bush job approval is 43%, down from 48% last month.

Newsweek has Bush at 46%, CNN 47%, AP/ Ipsos 46%.

Very bad news for Bush.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[TruthIsAll]

4. CBS now has Bush at 44%, up 1 from last week.

That is even worse news for Bush because we are a week closer to the election.

[Michael_UK]

6. Don't you need to include Nader in your calcs?

It's just your Kerry-win probability is so high, it worries me there must be something you're not including.

[TruthIsAll]

8. Nader is an extremely minor factor this time around.

Let me be brief. I don't quite ignore Nader.

Assume its tied 46-46 with 2% for Nader et al.
I calculate Undecided/other (icl. Nader) = 8 = 100-46+46

Give 5% to Kerry and 3% to Bush.
Kerry now has 51, Bush 49 - a 2% spread

If we include Nader, Kerry would get .62*6% =3.72%, Bush 2.28%

Adding to their totals:
Kerry = 46+ 3.72= 49.72
Bush = 46+1.28 = 48.28
That's a 1.46% spread.

But here's the catch. Most of Nader's supporters are in non-battleground states. And he won't get 2%.

Bednarik, the Libertarian candidate, is pulling votes (almost 1%) from Bush.

So it's a wash.

Besides, anyone who would still vote for Nader would probably just sit home this time, anyway.

The probabilities are what they are. Just check the mathematics - standard error of the mean, standard deviation, margin of error, normal distribution. And... Monte Carlo Simulation.

The probability calcs are correct. Bank on it.

[Fluffdaddy]

3. This is Killing me. I will never make it to Nov 2nd

[GOPNotForMe]

5. Word

[NicRic]

7. You and I both....

in sports its fun having a close game ,however with so many important issuses at stake in this election ,I would much prefer a Kerry 10 point lead. I have talked to many who are voting for Kerry,yet believe with it this close bush and his gang will steal another one out from under us.