GOOD NEWS POLLS: FL, PA, and NC

[jefferson_dem]

All SurveyUSA. 10/15-17. MoE 4.1%. (10/6 results)

Florida
Kerry 50 (46)
Bush 49 (51)

Pennsylvania
Kerry 51 (49)
Bush 45 (47)

North Carolina
Bush 50 (52)
Kerry 47 (45)

http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

[blm]

1. I spent 3 hours at Dem HQ in NC this morning and it was HOPPING....

and still taking calls from Republicans asking for Kerry yard signs. We're out as of this morning with more coming in on Wednesday.

[jefferson_dem]

4. Love to see NC on the visitation itenerary for K/E. You just know it

would be a remarkable homecoming for Edwards. * can take his NJ headfake and shove it. NC is trending toward the GOOD GUYS!

[Lex]

10. Oh, if the Tarheel State goes blue in 2 weeks

I'll be so proud of my home state and of Edwards!

[JohnnyCougar]

13. You guys gotta get Erskine Bowles to replace him!

I don't want Burr in the Senate!

[Lex]

17. Burr is pulling close, but I think the HUGE Dem turnout of which

I'm pretty certain, will push Erskine over the top and into office.

He'll be a wonderful Democratic Senator to replace Edwards.

[JohnnyCougar]

27. Is ACT still going on in NC?

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

2. If we get Pennsylvania and Ohio we've got it.

I'm not so positive of Florida as long as Jeb's in charge.

[umtalal]

3. I feel bad for Florida because I believe it is a Democratic state.

[BUSHOUT]

6. Don't feel bad for them....they'll go democrat this year. n/t

[requiem99]

9. Of course they will, but will they be counted?

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

14. It is "occupied" though. Grand Moff Tarkin and assorted lackeys.

[Catt03]

18. It used to be

until the North Panhandle mentality took over.

Was Democratic for years. The north west part of Florida appears to
have attracted religious fundamentalists and a god like belief in republican thought.


There are many Democrats in this area of Florida. They are just outnumbered by rigid conservatives.

[rockymountaindem]

5. But, but, but,

Gaaaaaallluupp says Bush is wiiinnninnggg.... I'm scaaaared....

Boo fuckin' hoo, trolls and worry-worts! And, since this is a SurveyUSA poll, you can be sure the reality is even better for us.

I may be called a fool after the election, but I really think Kerry will win this thing.

[AndyTiedye]

19. We Have Every Reason To Worry. The Polls Make It Easier to Steal

      We Make Democracy DIE

[newsguyatl]

7. excellent news!!

[BUSHOUT]

8. I went to the site..no help for this: What are the bracketed numbers? n/t

[blue neen]

11. I'm not sure, but I think those might be the numbers

from 10/6. If that's so, then Kerry is really picking up steam now!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[GaryL]

15. Previous poll results.

Some much for the "CNN B* momentum", eh?

[BUSHOUT]

22. Seriously? YIPPEEEE! After those debates, how could we worry? n/t

[Lex]

12. Probably the numbers from the last poll that organization did. n/t

[jefferson_dem]

16. Numbers in parentheses are those from the previous poll (10-6)

Here are pdfs for each of these, with numbers and graphs galore.

http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/FL041018pressen.pdf

http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/PA041018pressen.pdf

http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/NC041018presgovsen.pdf

[canuckybee]

20. great news !

[Nicholas_J]

21. And the Survey U.S.A. polls

Also oversample Republicans, though not as much as Gallop.

Gallop is obscene, in its insistance that 24 percent more Republicans will vote than Democrats

If Kerry has a small lead in a SUSA poll that means it is about ten percent larger than these polls show.

I actually think they are oversampling to keep Kerry from going outside of the margin of error in many of these polls.

This is one of the reasons Zogby has said that he beleives Kerry will win this election.

[shelley806]

23. Thanks for clarifying Gallop biased assumptions

Maybe true in past elections, but I think even relatively uninformed voters this year are extremely conscious of the importance of this election, and do not want a repeat of the 2000 disenfranchisement.

So this shows Kerry ahead in 2 of the 3 most important states. Great news.

[Nicholas_J]

24. Not even true in past elections

in 92, 96 and 2000 more democrats than Republicans voted.

Gallop states that in 2002 equal numbers of democrats and republicans voted, but 2002 was not a presidential election, and was a mid-term election and most of the elections for congress were in Red states or states that are very closely divided so using data from a congressional elections is not valid for a presidential year.

Gallop states that only 30 percent of the voters will be Democrat, 39 percent Republican and the rest independent, which means Gallop is also stating that more INDEPENDENT will vote than democrats. 39 percent is roughly one quarter more than 30 percent. There are not even one quarter more registered Republicans than democrats (in fact there are so many more registered democrats than REpublicans that even with the crossover voters Democrrats would always win if every Democrat and every Republican voted.

[bush equals idiot]

25. The woman from Survey USA was on with Rassmussen

last night, and she said they show their trend of all the momentum is with TEAM JJ.

[faithnotgreed]

26. great. thanks for sharing that