After the Debates, Arizona is in Play

[liberalpragmatist]

THOMAS OLIPHANT
After the debates, Arizona is in play
By Thomas Oliphant, Globe Columnist | October 17, 2004

PHOENIX

THIS FASCINATING state is like the rest of the country politically --except that it's about two weeks behind the trend.

On the day of last week's final presidential debate, both campaigns agreed that John Kerry had been closing on President Bush and was probably sitting just outside the margin for polling error. The one publicly available survey, by Northern Arizona University, showed the President with just half his September lead, up 5 points.

<snip>

Democratic activists... argue that without the clutter of television advertising -- but with the presence of campaign organization every bit as big as the Bush campaign's -- voters here got to watch the first three debates without commercial interference, and that is why Bush's margin shrank so fast.

Going down the stretch, they have successfully pleaded with national Kerry-Edwards officials to stay off the air and let the news and their work on the ground be the campaign. Kerry's state director, Doug Wilson, speaks with poetic conviction when he says, "Without the spin, we can win."

In the absence of commercials (the Republicans pulled their ads as well), the news dominates -- a point driven home here the day after the debate.

http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2004/10/17/after_the_debates_arizona_is_in_play/

* Note: I read on SOME article earlier today - can't find it now, though - one columnist said he had talked to the head of the state AFL-CIO and he was absolutely certain that Kerry would carry the state.

Personally, I'll admit, I'm a *little* skeptical - my gut tells me it'll be Bush by a squeaker, but I'm holding out hope! Keep up the good work Arizona DU'ers!

OH! And the strategy they described - pretending the state's not in play so no advertising, strikes me as a great one for some of these "peripheral" swing states like Arizona and Missouri. I'd love for it to be expanded to Arkansas, Virginia, and NC too. Let the news speak for itself, unfiltered, then let GOTV do the rest. Here's hoping :) !

[NMDemDist2]

1. we had volunteer canventions Sunday. Most districts (around 25

precincts) had over 100+ volunteers

our phone banks are loaded every night and we also have folks (like me) who can jump on the internet to call when we can't get to the office

NAU's poll taken BEFORE the last debate shows Bush only up by five with a 4 point MOE.

Don't count us out at all here.... we are the stealth state :evilgrin:

[liberalpragmatist]

2. kicking this

:kick:

[goodwalt]

3. Good News from AZ

I'm looking forward to tomorrow's Wilson poll numbers for Oklahoma. At this point, I don't think advertising makes a bit of difference anywhere. At some point the law of diminishing returns kicks in, and considering the unprecedented saturation of the air waves this year, I figure we passed that point a couple months ago. I may be polyanna, but I figure any state within two percentage points from a legitimate polling outfit (Gallup, Strategic Vision, Survey USA need not apply), will go to Kerry on turnout and new voters. With or without AZ and OK, I'm expecting an electoral landslide.