EV.com averages since 10/4 in all 18 Battleground states

[Perky]

K B
Oregon 52.0 44.0
New Jersey 46.8 42.7
Michigan 49.3 45.2
Nevada 54.0 43.0
Minnesota 47.9 44.8
New Mexico 48.7 45.7
New Hampshire 48.0 45.8
Maine 49.0 47.0
Pennsylvania 47.6 45.5
Iowa 47.9 46.0
Wisconsin 46.4 47.1
West Virginia 48.0 50.0
Ohio 46.3 49.1
Virginia 47.0 50.0
Florida 45.8 48.1
Missouri 46.5 50.5
Colorado 44.8 49.0
Arkansas 45.7 48.0

[NMDemDist2]

1. isn't everone gonna be shocked when AZ turns blue? n/t

[Perky]

2. Arizona

K B
Arizona 41.3 50.9

[DuaneBidoux]

3. If these battleground states go exactly as you have in the post

I think Shrub wins. I don't see anything great there except for Nevada (Shrub last time), and N.H. (also Shrub last time). I don't think that would be enough with the EC readjustments. Also They've got Wisconsin going Shrub (was Gore last time). Trends are good, no doubt, but it needs to KEEP trending.