You know, I now think the election will really be close

[liberalpragmatist]

Before I have long thought that in the end it would break decisively for Kerry, and he'd beat Bush by something like 53-45. But now I'm not so sure. I mean, certainly a win like that is still possible, and I DO think Kerry's gonna win.

But I'm beginning to believe that many of the trends we usually take for granted in an election with an incumbent may not really apply this year - at least not as much. First off, there's the idea that incumbents never face close races - that's true, but most incumbents going into the election have either very high approval ratings or very low approval ratings - Bush's are in the mid-40s - danger zone, but not a sign of a landslide-in-the-making. Moreover, not ALL incumbent elections are landslides. Gerald Ford and Harry Truman faced close races. Of course, neither had been elected to their first terms, so that may play a role. However, Woodrow Wilson had a very close race.

Moreover, this year the electorate is so closely split. And there are the residual effects of 9-11. I DO think undecideds will break for Kerry, but I'm not sure they'll break by the 2/3 marging they usually do - maybe more like 55-45. I get the impression that many undecideds are unhappy about Bush but have an emotional connection to him from 9/11 and that's binding them to him. For that reason, I think a disproportionate number of undecideds may decide that though they're unhappy with much of Bush's presidency, he'll protect them (wrongly).

So I now think it'll be quite narrow. I think Kerry can still win by 3 or 4 points, perhaps something like a 51-47 win or a 49-46 win (with Nader taking 2% and Badnarik each taking 1%, others another 1%).

Just my current thinking.

[foo_bar]

1. how pragmatic of you

[featherman]

2. I'm looking at a PV differential of about 2.5% at this time

Maybe 50.5% - 48% with about 1.5% for Other.
But this outcome is likely to convert to over 300 EVs for Kerry so what the heck.

[leftofthedial]

3. if it's close, it will be coup 2

the bushgang will steal it again and seize power.

[tedoll78]

4. My theory..

is that Kerry will win by about Gore's margin nationwide, but that he'll more easily win swing states. This will be accomplished a few ways:
1) He'll win the big Gore states, but the margins will be a bit less.
2) Bush will win his big 2000 states, but his margins will be a bit more.
3) Kerry will win most swing states by thousands, rather than hundreds.

[wurzel]

5. I think Kerry is much further ahead than he or anyone will admit to.

[Awsi Dooger]

6. Always destined to be close

Regardless of who we nominated, within reason. Each side has a dependable 44-45 percent base, so any poll all year with either candidate ahead by 6 points or more has been a farce.

I'll stick with my longheld forecast -- anywhere between 2 points Bush and 4 points Kerry depending what the Iraq/economy/candidate performance dynamics are on November 2.

[TexasSissy]

7. I've thought all year it'd be close...and I still do (regardless of who

wins), barring some external event (like a terrorist attack here).

I think the winner will be Kerry, of course, although I get depressed when I look at Bush's numbers sometimes. The numbers don't show * winning, but it's just soooooo close that it could tilt so easily. I'd feel better if Kerry could break out ahead.

But I think the numbers show that Bush is in trouble, and Kerry will win by just a bit. Which means lawsuits galore! But as long as we win, I'll take it!