New CBS/NYT Poll has race tied at 46%; Bush job approval at 44%!

[flpoljunkie]

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/19/politics/campaign/19campaign.html?ei=5094&en=15127dfb8295571e&hp=&ex=1098158400&partner=homepage&pagewanted=print&position=

wo weeks before Election Day, voters hold a sharply critical view of President Bush's record in office, but they have strong reservations about Senator John Kerry, leaving the race in a tie, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll.


Mr. Bush's job approval rating is at 44 percent, a dangerously low number for an incumbent president, and one of the lowest of his tenure. A majority of voters said that they disapproved of the way Mr. Bush had managed the economy and the war in Iraq, and - echoing a refrain of Mr. Kerry's - that his tax cuts had favored the wealthy. Voters said that Mr. Kerry would do a better job of preserving Social Security, creating jobs and ending the war in Iraq.

The poll found the two candidates each drawing 46 percent of all registered voters in a head-to-head race. Among likely voters in a two-way race, Mr. Bush has 47 percent, with 46 percent for Mr. Kerry.
________

Aside from the White House, the Times/CBS News poll also suggested an area of vulnerability for Republicans: Congress. Only 38 percent of the poll's respondents said they approved of the way Congress was doing its job; 46 percent of respondents said that they planned to vote for the Democratic Congressional candidate, compared with 38 percent who said they would vote Republican.


And as of now, voters have a warmer view of the Democratic Party than of the Republican Party: 52 percent said they had a favorable view of the Democrats, compared with 47 for Republicans.

______________

The Times/CBS News poll was taken nationwide of 1,048 Americans, including 931 registered voters. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points for the entire sample and for registered voters.

[Guaranteed]

1. Kablooie! All we need is to keep it right here.

Kerry is in the winning position.

[Mojambo]

2. Very good news on the Congressional front

And this was nice to read

And as of now, voters have a warmer view of the Democratic Party than of the Republican Party: 52 percent said they had a favorable view of the Democrats, compared with 47 for Republicans.

Finally the dirty tricks and negativity of the Republicans is hurting them.

[nebula]

3. Nice

Bill O'Reilly mentioned on Fox just now the skewed CNN/Gallup poll that showed Bush with a large lead, but then went on to display the results of the Zogby, Time, and Rasmussen polls that show them tied up. Unlike CNN, which likes to report the Gallup poll only.

How come Fox is more 'fair and balanced' than CNN when it comes to reporting poll results??

[Got WMD]

4. No, no, no....

I just watched Scarface on MSNBC and he told me that it was all over!!! * will be re-elected handily on 11/2. Something about a 9 point swing in some poll called Gallup? Guess I shouldn't even bother to vote.

Lawrence O'Donnell & some WA Post hack did a pretty good job of brining Scarface down to earth, but failed to mention the Zogby, Rasmussen, Time and CBS polls.

[Awsi Dooger]

5. Best news of the day and worst news, both in same survey

That 44% approval rating is obviously fantastic, and only up one point from the previous CBS sample. Hard to see Bush surviving if that number is accurate.

However, the poll indicates the "strong reservations" about Kerry are what is preventing him from seizing advantage of Bush's vulnerability. It's stunning only 39% have a favorable view of Kerry and 44% unfavorable. Also that 60% think Kerry will say anything while 37% believe he sticks to principle, just the opposite of Bush's numbers on the same question.

It probably means late undecideds won't break in extreme number (65%+) to Kerry, since a Zogby study revealed late deciders weigh personality traits very heavily. Kerry needs to get this race within a point or point and a half on election eve.

[Mojambo]

6. Strong Reservations

Kerry's favorables had seemed to be rising for a while.

Can the liberal tag be hurting him this badly? I didn't think it would, but apparently Americans still salivate heavily at the Pavlovian "Liberal" meme.

[Awsi Dooger]

7. I don't know what it is

Other polls show Kerry much higher in favorability, including 52% in one I looked at Sunday. But I certainly hope Kerry runs commercials and makes appearances that can demonstrate his personality and boost favorables. If all America sees the next two weeks are stump speech criticisms of Bush, hard to see Kerry's favorables going up.

[flpoljunkie]

8. Kick!

[npincus]

9. Bush on a cross-country Scare-o-thon

Terra, tera, terra... somehow that resonates with normally rational people. I am very heartened at the above news, but I don't want Bush controlling the message (putting Kerry on the defensive about the security issue)- Kerry needs to keep talking about the issues that Bush is running from: healthcare, economy, education, Iraq mess, budget deficits, tax-cutting durning time of war, bla, bla, bla- in other words: don't let the MONKEY change the subject!

Spew-fest over.

[GOPNotForMe]

10. It's articles like this that feed my suspicion

That we're going to have a reversed version of what happened in 1994, in terms of Congress. Maybe it's just wishful thinking. Anyone else think it's possible?