I predict that Democrats will win back Senate (net gain of 4 seats)

[WI_DEM]

Am I a foolish optimist? maybe. But the Senate races are really developing a trend towards the Democrats as the campaign enters the final two weeks.

Currently the GOP holds a 51-48-1 advantage in the Senate. Jeffords votes with the Dems so it is actually 51-49. Dems need a net gain of two seats to take control of the upper chamber.

I predict the Democrats will win five seats held currently held by Republicans:
Illinois
Colorado
Oklahoma
Alaska
Kentucky--Kentucky is a real surprise with incumbent Bunning exhibiting demetia and the two leading papers of the stae endorsing the Democratic nominee--polls have tightened and it is a 43-43 race.

I think the Dems will win these seats currently held by a Democrat and considered close:
South Dakota (Daschle will pull it out narrowly)
North Carolina
Florida
Louisiana

However, I think the GOP will take Georgia and South Carolina (though SC might still go Democratic).

Finally, my sleeper race, Pennsylvania--I'm predicting here and now that Joe Hoeffel will upset Arlen Specter.
1) Specter has been in six terms--time for a change
2) The conservative wing of the party is not enthusiastic for Specter and may vote for a third party candidate.
3) Kerry is beginning to lock Pa--six point lead in state in new poll.
4) Specter, as a rule hasn't run as well in presidential years
5) New poll (SUSA) has Hoeffel closing a 19-point lead to 7-points, behind Specter by 48-41 percent.

So with victories in IL, Co, Ok, Al, Ky, and PA and losing only GA and one of the Carolinas (probably SC) and holding all of our other seats--I believe the Dems will have a net gain of 4-seats bringing our total from 48 to 52 seats, add Jeffords we have 53 seats to the GOP's 47.

Oh yes, Kerry will resign from the Senate, but with the new law in Ma which calls for a special election, we should win this race. And as a bonus, if we take control of the Senate--I think there is a chance that RI Senator Lincoln Chafee will bolt the GOP.

[I Lean Left]

1. Why would Chaffee bolt?

If he was disgusted while the Repubs were in power and abusing but still didn't bolt, why would he bolt once the Repubs no longer controlled the Senate? He would be just another New England dem. Think of the profile Breaux enjoyed while the Repubs were in charge (pre-9/11). That would be the profile Chaffee could have: moderate trying to help shape his party while reaching across the aisle. Lots of photo-ops and invites. Lots of co-sponsorships on legislation trying to appear bi-partisan.

[WI_DEM]

5. because he will have a tough election in a heavily dem state

and Dems can with a majority give him a very influential committee.

[I Lean Left]

8. I thought he was fairly popular

And his not voting for Bush expresses an independent nature that New Englanders find irresistable.

Don't know for sure though, as I'm in a state to the north of Chafee. When is he due to run again? And is anyone certain he will run again?

[arcos]

16. He may run as a Democrat next time around...

That's what he said on an interview I read a few weeks ago... he was very critical of the GOP and said that he may switch parties for his reelection in 2006.

[PittLib]

2. I hope like hell Hoeffel wins PA ...

but don't count on it.

[Dogmudgeon]

6. That's a hell of a polling swing, though

If this poll is an accurate reflection of the voting public's intentions, Hoeffel will win, and Kerry should take the state by a very wide margin.

Yes, it's a very optimistic prognosis, but stranger things have happened. But if I were Joe Hoeffel, I wouldn't rest a minute until the polls closed -- Arlen is no pushover.

--bkl

[Lugnut]

7. I'm not counting on it but

I will be voting for Joe. Beating Specter would be huge.

[PittLib]

15. I am, too. I'd love to see Specter get his ass handed to him. nt

[footinmouth]

3. I share your optimism

I'm just looking at a few states at a time but I think Colorado is starting to look good. I watched the debate between DeMint and Tennenbaum and I can't see how anyone would vote for that lunatic. Kentucky is starting to look possible and I think there's a shot in Oklahoma.

I'm feeling depressed that half the country will vote for a dumb ass for president, so the possiblities in the Senate are making me feel a bit better.

[deadmessengers]

4. Chafee

Excellent analysis, but I must pick one nit:

Chafee will only jump ship if he takes control of the Senate with him. Otherwise, he doesn't have as much leverage to negotiate with the Democratic leadership for committee assignments, etc.

If the Senate ends up 51 Repugnicans 49 Democrats (including Jeffords) w/ Kerry as President, he'll jump into a nice position of power.

[I Lean Left]

9. What about Maine's senators?

Are any of them more or less likely than Chafee to bolt? The moderate wing of the Republican party (3 in New England!!!!) should be enjoying unrivaled standing in such a close senate. It is amazing that they are marginalized. You would never be able to get an ultra-conservative elected in Rhode Island or Maine, and any one of them could be vulnerable to a strong Dem candidate (if one could be found). The repubs should know they are lucky to have these three when they should be locked out from the whole region for the foreseeable future.

And, no, I don't include NH in this discussion. At least not yet.

[bushwakker]

11. collins and snowe in maine always toe the party line

they have reputations as moderates but they are not.

[bushwakker]

10. i'd love to see bunning benched once and for all

crazy bastard.

[Awsi Dooger]

12. Not as unlikely as I estimated a month ago

Frankly, we are potential beneficiaries of a lousy group of GOP nominees. Some of the Dems don't seem like senate caliber, either, but far superior to the Republican chumps.

It will take something akin to '86, when Democrats pulled out every squeaker. Not likely in all those red states, but maybe a 25 or 30 percent chance as opposed to my 10% call before watching these debates.

[JCMach1]

13. Looks like we lose SC and GA though

Dem seats... :(

[SilasSoule]

14. So what if Bunning wins???

What do you do with a U.S. senator who is demential???

[T Town Jake]

17. Your analysis is quite good...

...but I'm holding out for a net gain of +5. :toast:

[coreystone]

18. Any thing that Zell might bolt??? N/t

[Awsi Dooger]

19. Irrelevant, Zell is thankfully retiring

Two+ months and he's out of office.

Republicans will technically pick up that seat. The race to replace Miller is not considered competitive.

[Clintmax]

20. I'm optimistic also

I REALLY hope this is going to be the case. Kerry is going to NEED a democrat run Senate!

[mandyky]

21. I sure hope Mongiardo can win here in KY

Both Senators here are GOP. We just got a Dem Rep, Chandler, hopefully he is safe.